prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 23 Eastern Washington 34 42.4, 61 California - Davis 29 30.0
77% 49 Army 17 33.5, 122 Navy 10 21.0
75% 4 North Dakota State 35 26.8, 37 Colgate 0 12.9
54% 18 South Dakota State 27 36.8, 39 Kennesaw State 17 36.2
44% 83 Maine 23 23.3, 103 Weber State 18 24.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.91 0 0.00 2 1.32 1 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 5 4 3.4 1.17
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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