prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
63% 99 Wyoming 29 43.2, 152 New Mexico State 7 36.4
50% 114 Massachusetts 63 44.0, 144 Duquesne 15 44.1
42% 117 North Carolina A&T 20 34.4, 73 Jacksonville State 17 38.7
38% 209 Rice 31 38.6, 202 Prairie View 28 44.6
32% 182 Hawaii 43 35.9, 79 Colorado State 34 53.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 3 0.52 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 5 1 3.0 0.33
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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