prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 8 Central Florida 56 58.3, 217 Connecticut 21 9.2
97% 1 Alabama 59 48.9, 76 Mississippi 31 10.2
95% 173 Alcorn State 45 41.9, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 19 15.6
95% 18 Iowa 48 38.8, 115 Middle Tennessee State 3 15.9
95% 6 Oklahoma 55 51.4, 56 Texas Tech 16 28.2
95% 3 Clemson 21 42.5, 78 North Carolina 20 13.5
94% 108 Southern Mississippi 31 41.9, 236 Texas - El Paso 13 13.7
93% 135 Wofford 51 39.9, 238 Virginia Military 36 17.0
93% 66 Air Force 41 41.8, 183 San Jose State 24 18.4
93% 64 Youngstown State 45 47.4, 225 Robert Morris 10 13.5
93% 21 Michigan 52 39.5, 159 Rutgers 0 9.2
93% 19 Utah State 34 54.9, 166 Colorado State 24 25.3
92% 41 Fresno State 30 46.8, 198 New Mexico State 17 22.3
91% 43 Memphis 35 36.1, 96 Navy 23 24.1
91% 22 Texas A&M 31 40.4, 136 Arkansas 27 18.5
91% 2 Ohio State 48 47.8, 46 Nebraska 7 26.8
90% 62 Furman 17 39.9, 179 East Tennessee State 10 18.4
90% 17 Princeton 56 50.5, 243 Bucknell 23 11.6
88% 7 Wisconsin 24 35.8, 74 Northwestern 15 10.9
86% 126 North Carolina A&T 37 39.7, 252 Delaware State 0 9.7
86% 93 Wyoming 53 34.5, 167 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 20.8
86% 28 James Madison 45 37.6, 114 Elon 10 20.0
85% 59 Syracuse 41 32.8, 168 Holy Cross 3 19.8
85% 42 Dartmouth 38 41.9, 208 Colgate 3 9.2
81% 146 Liberty 17 36.9, 175 New Mexico 10 26.6
81% 106 Western Michigan 31 41.0, 172 Central Michigan 15 26.9
81% 9 Washington 28 36.9, 33 Southern California 14 22.7
79% 100 Montana State 49 38.8, 153 Northern Arizona 31 25.5
75% 180 Eastern Kentucky 42 36.3, 214 Tennessee State 16 21.2
75% 45 Stanford 31 37.0, 130 Oregon State 28 24.1
75% 39 Pittsburgh 17 32.2, 125 Delaware 14 20.3
75% 12 Notre Dame 35 33.2, 49 Virginia 20 17.3
73% 23 Florida 38 36.4, 73 Towson 0 23.0
72% 36 Texas Christian 51 29.5, 82 Kansas 14 15.6
71% 171 Southeast Louisiana 44 40.6, 234 Northwestern State 27 29.3
71% 58 Eastern Washington 35 39.6, 124 North Dakota 20 25.9
69% 197 Drake 41 24.8, 250 Marist 17 14.9
68% 221 North Alabama 41 37.5, 254 Presbyterian 21 23.1
68% 194 Bethune - Cookman 37 34.8, 229 Howard 29 28.5
68% 155 Northeast Louisiana 30 37.8, 207 South Alabama 17 27.5
68% 121 Louisiana Tech 23 29.7, 188 Rice 20 18.7
68% 40 Appalachian State 56 37.1, 102 Coastal Carolina 37 23.0
68% 29 Michigan State 40 25.7, 79 Indiana 31 12.4
67% 203 Saint Francis - Pennsy 16 27.0, 240 Bryant 6 19.8
67% 186 Southern 31 42.1, 235 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 32.9
67% 182 Tennessee - Chattanoog 60 35.8, 193 Western Carolina 36 26.2
67% 94 Harvard 42 42.6, 220 Brown 7 15.2
67% 65 Villanova 33 35.5, 105 Maine 17 24.4
67% 10 Auburn 56 28.4, 26 Mississippi State 23 18.4
66% 174 Prairie View 42 34.4, 204 Grambling 36 29.0
66% 152 Idaho State 51 35.9, 191 Portland State 24 28.9
66% 138 Albany 39 26.9, 158 William & Mary 31 20.1
66% 80 Vanderbilt 24 28.8, 117 Northern Illinois 18 22.5
66% 61 Arizona 20 37.1, 95 California - Los Angel 17 29.8
66% 52 Southern Methodist 48 38.9, 128 South Florida 21 31.4
66% 20 Oklahoma State 26 36.3, 32 Kansas State 13 29.5
65% 142 Sam Houston State 28 29.5, 200 McNeese State 17 23.8
65% 139 Pennsylvania 28 33.3, 222 Lafayette 24 19.2
64% 202 Florida A&M 30 30.0, 231 Norfolk State 28 24.0
64% 181 Tennessee - Martin 40 28.3, 177 Murray State 7 24.5
64% 133 New Hampshire 23 25.5, 164 Duquesne 6 19.2
64% 103 Hawaii 54 38.4, 157 Nevada - Reno 3 34.5
64% 99 Yale 27 38.5, 176 Cornell 16 23.6
64% 83 Toledo 28 35.4, 85 Brigham Young 21 32.1
64% 51 Louisiana - Lafayette 37 36.7, 111 Georgia Southern 24 33.6
64% 25 Utah 38 30.8, 27 Washington State 13 27.1
64% 13 Penn State 59 33.3, 30 Maryland 0 29.7
63% 251 Houston Baptist 68 38.3, 255 Texas Southern 31 34.9
63% 140 Samford 61 39.3, 134 The Citadel 55 36.5
63% 116 Stony Brook 31 29.3, 127 Rhode Island 27 25.7
63% 92 Florida Atlantic 45 35.6, 131 North Carolina - Charl 27 32.6
63% 81 Temple 24 28.9, 72 Georgia Tech 2 26.8
63% 63 Houston 46 36.6, 97 North Texas 25 34.0
63% 34 Duke 45 29.5, 69 Virginia Tech 10 27.3
60% 161 California Poly 24 34.4, 195 Southern Utah 21 33.2
57% 219 Wagner 24 51.9, 241 Long Island 14 47.7
56% 77 Cincinnati 52 22.9, 104 Marshall 14 22.0
56% 47 South Carolina 24 26.1, 38 Kentucky 7 25.1
54% 212 Massachusetts 37 33.5, 223 Akron 29 33.0
53% 37 Wake Forest 27 31.9, 68 Boston College 24 31.5
49% 107 Weber State 29 19.0, 89 Northern Iowa 17 19.2
47% 54 Minnesota 38 31.6, 67 Purdue 31 32.0
45% 84 Florida State 31 30.7, 53 North Carolina State 13 31.4
41% 205 Tennessee Tech 40 28.7, 227 Eastern Illinois 29 30.5
37% 233 Stephen F. Austin 24 28.8, 218 Lamar 17 32.3
37% 210 Incarnate Word 31 33.7, 187 Abilene Christian 24 36.5
37% 145 Miami - Ohio 34 29.3, 113 Buffalo 20 31.5
37% 90 Montana 45 30.0, 86 California - Davis 20 33.1
36% 245 North Carolina Central 27 22.5, 230 Morgan State 17 26.6
36% 144 Austin Peay 52 28.1, 112 Jacksonville State 33 33.4
36% 48 Arizona State 24 18.9, 50 California 17 23.1
35% 118 Arkansas State 50 24.8, 91 Troy State 43 32.9
35% 57 Baylor 23 27.2, 24 Iowa State 21 34.9
34% 216 Georgetown 24 14.0, 154 Columbia 10 28.3
34% 211 Fordham 23 28.0, 151 Richmond 16 34.5
34% 206 Campbell 34 19.1, 137 Mercer 27 32.5
34% 184 East Carolina 24 26.6, 160 Old Dominion 21 31.2
33% 169 Western Kentucky 20 21.3, 101 Alabama - Birmingham 13 28.8
32% 247 Northern Colorado 27 22.2, 170 Idaho 24 33.2
28% 196 Texas State - San Marc 24 21.3, 132 Nicholls State 3 35.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.01 54 1.11 10 1.22 10 1.18 17 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 100 80 71.9 1.11
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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