prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 147 San Diego 31 44.1, 251 Marist 7 17.7
97% 12 Notre Dame 52 58.5, 230 Bowling Green 0 7.2
97% 8 Wisconsin 48 49.6, 156 Kent State 0 7.2
96% 47 Boise State 38 42.5, 182 Nevada - Las Vegas 13 21.5
96% 6 Penn State 35 45.1, 82 Purdue 7 18.0
96% 4 Georgia 43 42.3, 115 Tennessee 14 13.8
95% 166 Dayton 56 41.7, 246 Jacksonville 28 22.8
95% 5 Oklahoma 45 48.4, 95 Kansas 20 21.7
94% 1 Ohio State 34 40.3, 30 Michigan State 10 11.7
92% 141 Florida International 44 47.9, 222 Massachusetts 0 29.1
92% 66 Montana 59 41.5, 138 Idaho State 20 22.0
92% 37 South Dakota State 28 41.7, 128 Southern Illinois 10 17.3
91% 153 Northern Arizona 41 39.9, 248 Northern Colorado 23 18.9
91% 103 Harvard 62 46.8, 232 Howard 17 17.7
91% 13 Missouri 42 45.1, 97 Troy State 10 24.1
90% 125 Jacksonville State 31 46.0, 219 Tennessee State 23 22.2
90% 65 Temple 27 33.4, 186 East Carolina 17 17.0
88% 134 Sam Houston State 31 43.6, 221 Stephen F. Austin 20 24.1
88% 7 Louisiana State 42 46.2, 28 Utah State 6 28.4
87% 113 Alabama - Birmingham 35 30.0, 179 Rice 20 14.6
87% 41 Memphis 52 44.5, 145 Northeast Louisiana 33 27.9
87% 20 Princeton 21 48.0, 167 Columbia 10 14.6
86% 193 Bethune - Cookman 31 35.6, 237 Morgan State 20 21.0
86% 114 North Carolina A&T 58 33.9, 226 Norfolk State 19 14.0
85% 42 Southern Methodist 43 42.6, 122 Tulsa 37 28.0
85% 15 Oregon 17 33.8, 55 California 7 17.1
84% 203 Drake 35 34.5, 249 Valparaiso 6 19.1
84% 52 Maryland 48 35.2, 174 Rutgers 7 19.1
83% 16 North Dakota State 37 31.4, 101 Illinois State 3 15.9
82% 196 Campbell 28 29.9, 255 Presbyterian 14 9.0
82% 53 Minnesota 40 41.9, 126 Illinois 17 25.2
80% 185 Murray State 24 29.0, 233 Eastern Illinois 17 18.6
78% 87 Weber State 41 33.8, 177 Idaho 35 19.7
76% 24 James Madison 45 34.4, 99 Stony Brook 38 19.7
73% 120 Southeast Missouri Sta 43 42.4, 190 Tennessee Tech 37 29.4
72% 223 Alabama A&M 35 40.0, 256 Texas Southern 28 19.6
72% 117 Georgia Southern 20 32.4, 214 South Alabama 17 20.8
71% 102 Yale 48 35.2, 205 Fordham 24 17.3
71% 56 Villanova 35 33.7, 154 William & Mary 28 20.0
70% 212 Davidson 42 44.7, 254 Morehead State 31 33.9
70% 171 Alcorn State 35 30.7, 241 Alabama State 7 20.5
68% 202 South Carolina State 38 27.3, 252 Delaware State 24 14.9
68% 178 Holy Cross 21 25.8, 229 Bucknell 14 18.1
68% 80 Toledo 31 45.3, 98 Western Michigan 24 37.5
67% 194 Florida A&M 28 30.0, 242 North Carolina Central 21 18.4
67% 158 Duquesne 21 53.7, 250 Long Island 14 27.5
67% 151 South Florida 48 30.9, 210 Connecticut 22 22.8
67% 150 Liberty 20 34.2, 197 New Mexico State 13 25.3
67% 90 San Diego State 24 30.7, 152 Colorado State 10 21.5
67% 89 Montana State 34 37.5, 146 California Poly 28 30.6
66% 136 Rhode Island 31 37.2, 227 Brown 28 24.4
66% 135 New Hampshire 26 23.6, 123 Elon 10 17.7
66% 77 Mississippi 31 32.8, 85 Vanderbilt 6 28.2
65% 44 Dartmouth 28 29.3, 142 Pennsylvania 15 16.6
64% 225 Stetson 30 35.3, 243 Butler 27 27.5
64% 206 Grambling 44 24.6, 245 Jackson State 21 19.2
64% 172 San Jose State 32 35.7, 183 New Mexico 21 31.4
64% 163 Monmouth 16 29.4, 215 Wagner 14 25.7
64% 139 Wofford 35 24.1, 170 East Tennessee State 17 20.2
64% 83 Ohio 21 33.4, 105 Buffalo 20 29.8
64% 81 Furman 58 42.2, 131 Samford 14 38.0
64% 62 Nebraska 13 27.6, 69 Northwestern 10 23.8
64% 22 Iowa State 49 27.2, 29 Texas Christian 24 22.0
64% 17 Michigan 10 25.1, 14 Iowa 3 22.0
63% 217 Incarnate Word 38 45.4, 231 Houston Baptist 36 43.0
63% 213 Texas - San Antonio 26 24.3, 240 Texas - El Paso 16 21.0
63% 124 Middle Tennessee State 24 29.5, 121 Marshall 13 27.4
63% 119 North Dakota 38 28.7, 100 California - Davis 36 26.4
62% 220 Hampton 40 34.8, 218 North Alabama 34 31.8
62% 149 Nicholls State 34 29.2, 140 Central Arkansas 14 27.0
60% 50 North Carolina 38 25.6, 106 Georgia Tech 22 24.2
56% 19 Florida 24 24.9, 9 Auburn 13 24.1
54% 96 Louisville 41 32.5, 84 Boston College 39 31.9
47% 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 31 36.4, 231 Houston Baptist 23 36.7
46% 21 Texas 42 32.5, 31 West Virginia 31 33.2
45% 184 South Dakota 38 29.3, 157 Indiana State 0 30.1
42% 164 Western Kentucky 20 25.7, 175 Old Dominion 3 26.8
41% 67 Arizona 35 30.8, 73 Colorado 30 32.4
39% 86 Navy 34 27.9, 68 Air Force 25 29.4
38% 204 Portland State 52 28.1, 200 Southern Utah 31 29.9
37% 198 Georgetown 14 17.7, 189 Cornell 8 21.2
37% 173 Tennessee - Chattanoog 34 28.9, 165 Mercer 17 31.8
37% 169 Richmond 23 28.0, 118 Albany 20 31.2
37% 161 Central Connecticut 28 27.6, 155 Sacred Heart 3 30.5
37% 93 Northern Iowa 21 20.2, 60 Youngstown State 14 23.2
36% 199 McNeese State 38 23.0, 148 Southeast Louisiana 34 27.1
34% 236 Lamar 27 23.2, 201 Abilene Christian 24 29.3
34% 162 Central Michigan 42 22.6, 104 Eastern Michigan 16 29.3
34% 159 Tennessee - Martin 38 20.1, 168 Eastern Kentucky 28 26.8
34% 76 Texas Tech 45 31.8, 23 Oklahoma State 35 36.8
34% 63 Tulane 42 19.2, 58 Army 33 25.5
33% 247 Gardner - Webb 24 30.9, 207 Western Carolina 21 39.9
33% 216 Lehigh 21 23.5, 208 Colgate 14 29.5
33% 192 Missouri State 37 20.6, 180 Western Illinois 31 29.7
33% 143 Ball State 27 22.2, 116 Northern Illinois 20 33.4
33% 94 Virginia Tech 42 18.8, 61 Miami - Florida 35 28.3
33% 38 Pittsburgh 33 20.2, 25 Duke 30 27.6
32% 187 Georgia State 52 27.8, 108 Arkansas State 38 38.2
31% 111 Oregon State 48 29.6, 92 California - Los Angel 31 38.2
30% 48 Baylor 31 23.1, 35 Kansas State 12 33.8
30% 40 Cincinnati 27 27.1, 11 Central Florida 24 35.8
21% 160 Sacramento State 48 28.7, 71 Eastern Washington 27 41.8
21% 54 Stanford 23 17.1, 10 Washington 13 31.0
5% 239 Virginia Military 34 20.9, 144 The Citadel 21 45.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.51 53 0.90 11 0.99 16 1.17 17 1.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 104 73 76.1 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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