prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 28 Princeton 28 52.8, 219 Lafayette 3 12.9
96% 105 Eastern Washington 54 45.9, 244 Northern Colorado 21 18.4
96% 3 Clemson 45 44.0, 66 Florida State 14 12.9
95% 113 Louisiana Tech 69 47.4, 248 Massachusetts 21 19.1
94% 41 Tulane 49 46.3, 221 Connecticut 7 11.1
93% 60 Kennesaw State 45 41.2, 201 Charleston Southern 23 13.5
93% 14 North Dakota State 46 34.5, 102 Northern Iowa 14 7.2
92% 89 Harvard 35 34.5, 195 Cornell 22 13.6
92% 82 Weber State 29 41.8, 206 Southern Utah 14 18.8
92% 10 Missouri 38 41.2, 65 Mississippi 27 20.6
91% 153 Dayton 41 43.6, 252 Valparaiso 28 25.2
90% 171 Monmouth 45 40.3, 255 Presbyterian 0 15.8
90% 21 Michigan 42 39.6, 138 Illinois 25 19.4
89% 13 Oregon 45 41.3, 78 Colorado 3 20.5
89% 6 Wisconsin 38 32.1, 25 Michigan State 0 10.6
88% 143 Central Michigan 42 38.1, 200 New Mexico State 28 24.4
88% 24 Duke 41 34.0, 114 Georgia Tech 23 16.3
87% 127 Nicholls State 45 45.1, 229 Northwestern State 35 22.8
86% 76 Indiana 35 34.5, 176 Rutgers 0 16.9
86% 2 Alabama 47 38.4, 23 Texas A&M 28 21.9
84% 95 California - Davis 48 40.9, 152 California Poly 24 28.1
84% 20 Utah 52 39.7, 87 Oregon State 7 23.8
83% 144 Jacksonville State 28 32.2, 232 Eastern Illinois 20 17.9
82% 56 Kentucky 24 34.4, 123 Arkansas 20 18.6
82% 12 Notre Dame 30 36.0, 30 Southern California 27 22.4
81% 22 James Madison 38 42.4, 64 Villanova 24 25.9
79% 111 Alabama - Birmingham 33 30.9, 211 Texas - San Antonio 14 16.9
77% 182 The Citadel 35 41.5, 220 Western Carolina 17 29.1
77% 57 Boise State 59 36.9, 73 Hawaii 37 24.9
77% 55 Dartmouth 42 31.5, 97 Yale 10 17.9
76% 4 Louisiana State 42 35.7, 15 Florida 28 20.8
74% 125 Marshall 31 31.4, 188 Old Dominion 17 19.1
71% 90 Western Michigan 38 39.9, 122 Miami - Ohio 16 29.7
70% 160 Central Arkansas 40 26.2, 192 McNeese State 31 17.1
70% 11 Washington 51 35.9, 61 Arizona 27 24.5
67% 194 Grambling 23 34.6, 235 Alabama A&M 10 22.0
67% 86 Florida Atlantic 28 36.8, 120 Middle Tennessee State 13 29.1
67% 53 Minnesota 34 36.6, 68 Nebraska 7 28.9
67% 36 Baylor 33 34.1, 67 Texas Tech 30 27.6
67% 5 Oklahoma 34 44.6, 18 Texas 27 34.3
66% 238 Morgan State 34 29.7, 251 Delaware State 3 23.5
66% 209 Abilene Christian 45 38.3, 213 Houston Baptist 20 29.0
66% 197 Drake 42 28.7, 230 Butler 7 22.1
66% 196 Bethune - Cookman 27 26.4, 237 North Carolina Central 13 20.3
66% 174 Holy Cross 47 26.4, 222 Brown 31 19.7
66% 147 San Diego 37 41.4, 203 Davidson 17 33.8
66% 131 Florida International 48 35.0, 140 North Carolina - Charl 23 28.6
66% 103 Southern Mississippi 45 35.0, 110 North Texas 27 29.4
66% 92 Virginia Tech 34 38.4, 150 Rhode Island 17 30.0
65% 231 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 38 34.9, 250 Mississippi Valley Sta 6 29.6
65% 157 Kent State 26 29.3, 226 Akron 3 22.6
65% 154 Pennsylvania 38 26.8, 190 Sacred Heart 24 18.6
65% 71 Navy 45 30.5, 107 Tulsa 17 25.0
64% 186 Murray State 31 33.2, 225 Tennessee State 17 29.2
64% 183 Southern 34 35.8, 166 Prairie View 28 33.2
64% 139 Austin Peay 28 34.4, 134 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 31.4
64% 91 San Diego State 26 18.4, 80 Wyoming 22 13.2
64% 69 North Carolina State 16 31.2, 63 Syracuse 10 26.7
64% 8 Penn State 17 23.2, 17 Iowa 12 19.5
63% 234 Bryant 27 41.1, 249 Long Island 22 33.9
63% 204 Indiana State 20 23.1, 199 Western Illinois 10 20.4
63% 145 Tennessee - Martin 55 36.4, 172 Tennessee Tech 14 33.3
63% 142 Northeast Louisiana 24 35.3, 189 Texas State - San Marc 14 32.1
63% 136 Central Connecticut 24 27.4, 159 Columbia 14 25.1
63% 62 Miami - Florida 17 25.3, 52 Virginia 9 22.3
63% 19 Iowa State 38 33.0, 38 West Virginia 14 30.4
62% 185 Nevada - Reno 41 31.6, 173 San Jose State 38 29.8
62% 158 Colorado State 35 39.4, 181 New Mexico 21 37.4
62% 46 South Dakota State 38 23.8, 75 Youngstown State 28 21.1
57% 129 Illinois State 21 25.4, 135 Southern Illinois 7 24.4
56% 32 Appalachian State 17 38.7, 54 Louisiana - Lafayette 7 37.7
53% 187 Portland State 24 34.5, 168 Idaho 0 33.8
53% 141 Elon 42 27.7, 117 Delaware 7 27.2
50% 77 Air Force 43 28.1, 59 Fresno State 24 28.1
48% 164 South Dakota 45 30.0, 184 Missouri State 10 30.2
42% 241 Gardner - Webb 35 26.0, 217 Hampton 27 27.4
41% 35 Cincinnati 38 29.3, 49 Houston 23 30.4
37% 239 Alabama State 31 20.8, 246 Jackson State 16 23.9
37% 72 Temple 30 27.3, 34 Memphis 28 29.8
37% 50 Arizona State 38 28.9, 29 Washington State 34 31.5
36% 240 Norfolk State 49 33.6, 245 Howard 21 36.7
36% 130 Ball State 29 29.3, 124 Eastern Michigan 23 33.4
35% 133 South Florida 27 23.9, 84 Brigham Young 23 28.1
34% 207 Florida A&M 42 19.3, 180 South Carolina State 38 27.5
34% 202 Fordham 30 16.5, 177 Georgetown 27 24.5
34% 137 Northern Illinois 39 21.0, 94 Ohio 36 29.8
34% 126 New Hampshire 20 17.2, 99 Stony Brook 14 23.7
33% 233 Bucknell 32 17.1, 218 Colgate 14 25.0
33% 223 Robert Morris 20 16.4, 205 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 27.8
33% 155 Idaho State 55 26.1, 108 North Dakota 20 33.1
33% 118 Albany 38 25.0, 79 Towson 21 34.3
32% 156 Western Kentucky 17 17.5, 70 Army 8 27.7
32% 88 Purdue 40 28.0, 27 Maryland 14 37.6
32% 83 Louisville 62 30.4, 42 Wake Forest 59 40.7
29% 115 Sacramento State 34 25.3, 93 Montana State 21 34.7
28% 175 Richmond 24 23.3, 112 Maine 17 36.2
27% 214 Virginia Military 48 37.0, 151 Samford 41 50.7
26% 106 Tennessee 20 21.5, 31 Mississippi State 10 33.5
22% 165 Georgia State 31 28.8, 116 Coastal Carolina 21 42.3
13% 193 Nevada - Las Vegas 34 23.5, 104 Vanderbilt 10 40.2
10% 212 Incarnate Word 27 31.2, 149 Southeast Louisiana 21 48.5
7% 254 Morehead State 30 28.0, 243 Jacksonville 22 44.2
6% 242 Bowling Green 20 22.4, 81 Toledo 7 48.0
5% 228 Lamar 20 16.0, 132 Sam Houston State 17 40.0
5% 37 South Carolina 20 14.4, 7 Georgia 17 38.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.14 52 1.03 13 0.82 16 1.02 16 0.80 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105 74 76.7 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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