prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 47 Dartmouth 49 41.8, 249 Marist 7 5.2
97% 18 North Dakota State 22 52.5, 209 Missouri State 0 7.8
97% 17 Central Florida 41 50.2, 170 East Carolina 28 16.6
97% 2 Alabama 35 52.0, 99 Tennessee 13 9.5
96% 133 San Diego 42 47.2, 252 Valparaiso 17 19.7
96% 65 Kennesaw State 55 47.2, 256 Presbyterian 10 6.7
96% 57 Houston 24 45.6, 217 Connecticut 17 19.9
96% 42 Utah State 36 48.3, 191 Nevada - Reno 10 19.5
95% 9 Georgia 21 37.0, 71 Kentucky 0 11.7
95% 6 Oklahoma 52 50.0, 54 West Virginia 14 23.9
95% 1 Ohio State 52 40.6, 61 Northwestern 3 13.0
94% 123 Florida International 32 38.3, 242 Texas - El Paso 17 13.1
94% 34 Princeton 65 48.2, 216 Brown 22 16.9
93% 19 Texas 50 42.0, 104 Kansas 48 17.5
92% 127 Central Connecticut 52 40.1, 239 Bryant 14 12.7
92% 36 South Dakota State 42 33.7, 206 Indiana State 23 9.4
92% 5 Clemson 45 44.0, 72 Louisville 10 21.0
91% 115 Tennessee - Martin 27 33.3, 232 Eastern Illinois 18 13.9
91% 39 Minnesota 42 38.5, 203 Rutgers 7 14.5
91% 21 James Madison 38 43.8, 149 William & Mary 10 19.5
91% 20 Iowa 26 33.4, 67 Purdue 20 14.9
90% 183 Southern 28 46.1, 255 Texas Southern 21 21.5
90% 161 Monmouth 49 38.5, 235 Gardner - Webb 28 20.9
90% 102 Troy State 37 38.4, 208 South Alabama 13 17.2
90% 92 Towson 56 41.0, 221 Bucknell 7 18.2
90% 87 California - Davis 33 41.7, 202 Southern Utah 25 25.6
90% 26 Cincinnati 24 36.7, 114 Tulsa 13 15.0
89% 126 Wofford 59 42.8, 226 Western Carolina 7 22.0
89% 27 Appalachian State 52 51.0, 136 Northeast Louisiana 7 25.3
89% 11 Auburn 51 38.7, 112 Arkansas 10 18.0
88% 111 Buffalo 21 36.5, 246 Akron 0 16.3
88% 7 Penn State 28 31.1, 22 Michigan 21 16.3
87% 75 Wyoming 23 40.1, 200 New Mexico 10 18.5
87% 25 Southern California 41 40.4, 68 Arizona 14 27.5
86% 74 Fresno State 56 38.8, 155 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 21.0
86% 13 Utah 21 32.9, 49 Arizona State 3 16.8
84% 135 Central Michigan 38 34.6, 234 Bowling Green 20 20.7
84% 106 Alabama - Birmingham 38 31.7, 186 Old Dominion 14 17.9
84% 4 Louisiana State 36 41.0, 55 Mississippi State 13 23.2
82% 194 Bethune - Cookman 35 36.0, 228 Norfolk State 22 21.9
82% 176 Prairie View 51 49.3, 220 Houston Baptist 0 34.9
80% 178 Mercer 34 43.5, 207 Virginia Military 27 30.3
79% 79 San Diego State 27 28.4, 174 San Jose State 17 14.8
77% 188 South Carolina State 24 32.3, 227 Morgan State 10 18.7
77% 162 Central Arkansas 31 38.4, 236 Northwestern State 30 24.9
76% 12 Iowa State 34 35.3, 66 Texas Tech 24 24.8
75% 52 Navy 35 35.6, 124 South Florida 3 21.6
74% 120 Illinois State 28 25.5, 219 Western Illinois 14 12.3
74% 110 Northern Iowa 42 27.8, 144 South Dakota 27 17.7
73% 185 McNeese State 42 39.4, 220 Houston Baptist 27 27.1
72% 94 Albany 35 37.4, 163 Rhode Island 28 26.2
71% 97 Weber State 51 38.5, 160 Northern Arizona 28 25.7
70% 29 Washington State 41 40.5, 81 Colorado 10 27.6
69% 101 Ohio 45 34.7, 137 Kent State 38 23.0
68% 195 Abilene Christian 31 35.9, 223 Stephen F. Austin 24 24.4
68% 175 Georgetown 14 26.5, 211 Lafayette 10 15.4
68% 95 Harvard 31 30.0, 171 Holy Cross 21 21.3
67% 156 Tennessee - Chattanoog 16 25.9, 182 East Tennessee State 13 16.5
67% 130 Western Kentucky 30 32.1, 151 North Carolina - Charl 14 22.3
66% 205 Incarnate Word 35 34.0, 222 Lamar 17 28.0
66% 166 Portland State 38 31.6, 240 Northern Colorado 30 22.8
66% 58 Louisiana - Lafayette 37 39.0, 122 Arkansas State 20 31.9
66% 35 Wake Forest 22 38.4, 59 Florida State 20 32.6
66% 24 Texas A&M 24 31.9, 63 Mississippi 17 26.7
65% 196 Campbell 31 29.9, 218 Hampton 16 20.8
65% 116 Georgia Southern 30 32.4, 128 Coastal Carolina 27 27.1
65% 105 Yale 28 29.9, 164 Richmond 27 24.8
65% 14 Florida 38 25.8, 30 South Carolina 27 20.7
64% 210 Saint Francis - Pennsy 30 28.8, 247 Long Island 0 18.3
64% 204 Davidson 49 35.3, 243 Jacksonville 19 31.4
64% 159 Sam Houston State 17 31.7, 148 Nicholls State 0 28.3
64% 129 North Texas 33 34.1, 131 Middle Tennessee State 30 30.1
64% 46 Southern Methodist 45 35.6, 70 Temple 21 32.1
64% 33 Memphis 47 33.0, 41 Tulane 17 28.6
63% 138 North Dakota 30 32.9, 169 California Poly 26 30.9
63% 93 Louisiana Tech 45 32.3, 88 Southern Mississippi 30 29.1
63% 43 Kansas State 24 26.0, 32 Texas Christian 17 22.2
63% 40 Pittsburgh 27 26.3, 73 Syracuse 20 24.0
62% 193 Charleston Southern 25 32.9, 225 North Alabama 20 30.4
62% 60 Air Force 56 37.6, 82 Hawaii 26 36.2
53% 80 Boston College 45 26.8, 78 North Carolina State 24 26.3
47% 245 Jackson State 31 23.1, 248 Mississippi Valley Sta 28 23.7
47% 180 Eastern Kentucky 34 25.2, 184 Murray State 27 25.6
45% 168 Duquesne 20 23.2, 173 Sacred Heart 6 24.2
44% 145 Miami - Ohio 27 26.0, 132 Northern Illinois 24 27.0
42% 172 Columbia 44 22.2, 141 Pennsylvania 6 23.3
38% 86 Virginia Tech 43 29.1, 45 North Carolina 41 30.5
37% 213 Robert Morris 21 21.6, 215 Wagner 13 24.8
37% 153 Delaware 16 20.8, 113 New Hampshire 10 23.7
37% 117 Ball State 52 32.9, 100 Toledo 14 35.4
37% 8 Oregon 35 27.0, 10 Washington 31 29.0
36% 157 Liberty 59 21.4, 139 Maine 44 25.7
35% 142 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 28.8, 152 Jacksonville State 21 35.1
35% 90 Sacramento State 49 29.5, 44 Montana 22 35.3
35% 53 Virginia 48 24.6, 23 Duke 14 29.5
34% 224 Texas - San Antonio 31 21.2, 177 Rice 27 26.5
34% 212 Lehigh 30 26.8, 198 Fordham 27 32.0
34% 89 Brigham Young 28 22.8, 38 Boise State 25 28.7
34% 69 Indiana 34 25.5, 51 Maryland 28 32.8
33% 253 Morehead State 31 29.1, 241 Butler 20 35.9
33% 229 Stetson 38 30.7, 158 Dayton 21 39.5
33% 190 Idaho 45 27.6, 109 Idaho State 21 35.4
33% 146 Southern Illinois 35 24.1, 77 Youngstown State 10 31.4
33% 143 Eastern Michigan 34 30.1, 83 Western Michigan 27 36.1
33% 140 Georgia State 28 25.2, 85 Army 21 35.0
33% 37 Baylor 45 33.1, 31 Oklahoma State 27 39.4
32% 189 Florida A&M 34 23.0, 91 North Carolina A&T 31 34.8
32% 125 Marshall 36 22.7, 84 Florida Atlantic 31 32.3
30% 231 Colgate 21 15.0, 192 Cornell 20 25.4
23% 119 Georgia Tech 28 14.3, 64 Miami - Florida 21 27.9
18% 233 Tennessee State 26 25.1, 134 Austin Peay 24 40.7
17% 103 Oregon State 21 19.3, 50 California 17 33.7
15% 107 California - Los Angel 34 19.1, 48 Stanford 16 33.2
9% 179 The Citadel 27 18.1, 56 Furman 10 38.8
8% 147 Vanderbilt 21 17.1, 16 Missouri 14 42.1
4% 121 Illinois 24 14.6, 3 Wisconsin 23 48.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.31 50 0.83 13 1.23 19 0.98 28 0.96 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 116 81 88.2 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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