prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 113 North Carolina A&T 64 49.7, 247 Howard 6 18.2
97% 94 Western Michigan 49 46.8, 231 Bowling Green 10 19.0
97% 2 Alabama 48 54.0, 126 Arkansas 7 9.6
96% 4 Clemson 59 44.1, 69 Boston College 7 11.6
94% 24 Appalachian State 30 42.3, 214 South Alabama 3 13.4
93% 127 Northern Illinois 49 34.9, 249 Akron 0 10.0
93% 78 Furman 28 47.7, 241 Western Carolina 7 19.2
92% 118 Georgia Southern 41 41.7, 199 New Mexico State 7 23.1
92% 98 Youngstown State 59 36.0, 221 Western Illinois 14 12.3
92% 83 Louisiana Tech 42 39.0, 240 Texas - El Paso 21 13.7
92% 50 Dartmouth 59 33.3, 150 Columbia 24 12.2
91% 181 Drake 36 42.5, 246 Morehead State 17 17.0
91% 16 James Madison 27 46.7, 74 Towson 10 25.4
90% 124 Illinois State 24 29.8, 208 Indiana State 7 12.2
90% 63 Kennesaw State 41 50.7, 228 North Alabama 17 18.0
90% 9 Oregon 37 42.9, 31 Washington State 35 25.4
88% 82 Wyoming 31 35.8, 192 Nevada - Reno 3 17.0
88% 28 Memphis 42 39.1, 115 Tulsa 41 23.1
87% 173 Holy Cross 31 28.2, 220 Colgate 10 16.0
87% 12 Utah 35 27.6, 57 California 0 8.8
86% 1 Ohio State 38 37.6, 6 Wisconsin 7 20.7
85% 111 Northern Iowa 29 30.7, 213 Missouri State 6 18.3
83% 110 Central Connecticut 28 47.6, 253 Long Island 0 10.9
82% 23 Southern California 35 36.5, 93 Colorado 31 24.2
80% 174 Southeast Louisiana 52 45.9, 255 Houston Baptist 13 29.5
80% 75 San Diego State 20 29.7, 155 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 17.6
79% 39 Princeton 30 39.6, 96 Harvard 24 24.8
79% 25 Texas A&M 49 32.5, 59 Mississippi State 30 21.6
77% 207 Robert Morris 24 33.9, 245 Bryant 20 21.1
77% 7 Penn State 28 26.6, 33 Michigan State 7 13.7
76% 130 Arkansas State 38 34.6, 186 Texas State - San Marc 14 21.1
76% 102 Hawaii 45 43.6, 195 New Mexico 31 31.8
75% 18 Iowa 20 22.3, 86 Northwestern 0 8.9
74% 103 Southern Mississippi 20 33.8, 179 Rice 6 24.8
73% 237 North Carolina Central 30 26.3, 252 Delaware State 23 15.5
73% 218 Hampton 56 43.0, 255 Houston Baptist 6 28.1
73% 91 Florida Atlantic 41 34.5, 188 Old Dominion 3 23.9
72% 47 Montana 34 45.5, 89 Eastern Washington 17 33.3
72% 21 Central Florida 63 37.5, 73 Temple 21 27.3
70% 175 Duquesne 28 23.8, 223 Wagner 24 8.1
70% 5 Louisiana State 23 37.9, 10 Auburn 20 26.6
69% 116 Yale 46 33.4, 162 Pennsylvania 41 23.4
68% 248 Mississippi Valley Sta 35 35.9, 254 Texas Southern 14 25.7
68% 189 Campbell 49 30.5, 236 Gardner - Webb 47 19.5
68% 158 Jacksonville State 14 34.8, 178 Murray State 12 24.4
68% 27 Minnesota 52 36.6, 52 Maryland 10 27.4
67% 212 Lafayette 21 28.3, 232 Bucknell 17 20.8
67% 206 Cornell 37 31.7, 222 Brown 35 22.1
67% 166 Eastern Kentucky 33 25.9, 226 Eastern Illinois 6 17.9
67% 154 Austin Peay 58 41.0, 202 Tennessee Tech 21 31.7
67% 151 Alcorn State 27 30.3, 201 Southern 13 21.8
67% 148 The Citadel 35 35.4, 187 Mercer 24 26.2
67% 112 Buffalo 43 30.1, 135 Central Michigan 20 22.5
67% 109 Wofford 35 29.2, 163 Tennessee - Chattanoog 34 17.9
67% 56 Florida State 35 33.5, 77 Syracuse 17 26.3
67% 54 Sacramento State 38 39.2, 167 California Poly 14 28.4
66% 190 Grambling 39 36.4, 217 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 33 28.9
66% 180 Florida A&M 24 33.6, 225 Morgan State 12 27.6
66% 165 Samford 24 37.6, 183 East Tennessee State 17 31.6
66% 70 Stanford 41 29.9, 76 Arizona 31 24.0
65% 243 Butler 24 30.7, 244 Jacksonville 14 26.3
65% 210 Connecticut 56 37.8, 242 Massachusetts 35 32.5
65% 160 Northern Arizona 31 40.6, 169 Portland State 29 33.6
65% 142 Maine 34 30.7, 143 William & Mary 25 25.6
64% 194 McNeese State 33 32.3, 219 Stephen F. Austin 10 28.1
64% 145 Toledo 37 31.2, 125 Eastern Michigan 34 27.1
64% 37 Navy 41 31.1, 46 Tulane 38 26.9
63% 121 Southern Illinois 48 28.6, 147 South Dakota 28 26.6
63% 117 Elon 38 32.1, 156 Rhode Island 13 29.3
63% 48 Air Force 31 33.0, 53 Utah State 7 30.8
63% 22 North Dakota State 23 24.3, 43 South Dakota State 16 21.0
62% 170 Monmouth 35 29.7, 196 Charleston Southern 13 28.2
62% 119 Marshall 26 22.0, 123 Western Kentucky 23 19.9
61% 138 San Diego 50 36.5, 176 Dayton 38 35.1
52% 146 Middle Tennessee State 50 28.3, 128 Florida International 17 28.1
51% 191 Sacred Heart 36 16.5, 198 Saint Francis - Pennsy 33 16.3
51% 144 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 28.9, 114 Tennessee - Martin 10 28.8
51% 36 Texas Christian 37 32.4, 20 Texas 27 32.2
50% 38 North Carolina 20 32.1, 32 Duke 17 32.0
49% 49 Indiana 38 29.1, 68 Nebraska 31 29.2
49% 30 Southern Methodist 34 39.8, 62 Houston 31 39.9
44% 239 Alabama A&M 43 22.8, 229 Alabama State 41 23.8
44% 19 Michigan 45 24.9, 13 Notre Dame 14 25.9
42% 184 Central Arkansas 29 24.7, 161 Sam Houston State 25 26.0
42% 133 South Florida 45 25.5, 153 East Carolina 20 26.7
38% 204 Lehigh 27 20.7, 177 Georgetown 24 23.2
38% 185 South Carolina State 27 23.9, 197 Bethune - Cookman 19 25.9
38% 79 Kansas 37 29.5, 64 Texas Tech 34 31.0
37% 152 North Carolina - Charl 39 34.7, 129 North Texas 38 37.0
37% 141 North Dakota 16 27.9, 99 Montana State 12 29.8
37% 137 Miami - Ohio 23 28.7, 134 Kent State 16 31.2
37% 101 Ohio 34 32.7, 84 Ball State 21 35.6
37% 87 Weber State 36 29.4, 100 California - Davis 20 31.5
37% 81 California - Los Angel 42 25.1, 55 Arizona State 32 28.1
36% 131 Georgia State 52 32.8, 105 Troy State 33 37.3
36% 67 Louisville 28 32.2, 35 Virginia 21 35.5
35% 200 Southern Utah 59 30.5, 136 Idaho State 34 36.3
34% 172 Richmond 35 24.5, 159 Delaware 25 29.6
34% 85 Tennessee 41 23.0, 34 South Carolina 21 28.7
34% 66 Miami - Florida 16 16.8, 41 Pittsburgh 12 24.8
33% 230 Northwestern State 44 34.2, 209 Incarnate Word 41 42.3
33% 211 Rutgers 44 14.9, 139 Liberty 34 24.3
32% 250 Valparaiso 19 26.8, 216 Stetson 10 36.7
32% 205 Abilene Christian 37 22.0, 171 Nicholls State 31 31.5
29% 108 Stony Brook 36 21.3, 58 Villanova 35 32.7
23% 90 Illinois 24 28.6, 61 Purdue 6 38.6
22% 72 Kentucky 29 19.2, 17 Missouri 7 30.5
19% 42 Oklahoma State 34 28.8, 14 Iowa State 27 41.5
15% 164 San Jose State 34 19.9, 107 Army 29 33.5
14% 45 Kansas State 48 23.4, 3 Oklahoma 41 39.9
12% 157 Colorado State 41 24.6, 71 Fresno State 31 42.7
11% 238 Jackson State 38 20.9, 132 Prairie View 35 44.9
10% 251 Marist 27 19.5, 182 Davidson 21 37.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.85 52 0.97 19 1.13 16 0.80 15 1.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113 79 81.6 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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