prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 78 Furman 60 44.5, 214 Virginia Military 21 17.0
97% 58 Mississippi 41 46.1, 207 New Mexico State 3 16.4
97% 27 Cincinnati 48 46.3, 208 Connecticut 3 10.2
97% 16 North Dakota State 57 52.9, 235 Western Illinois 21 3.6
97% 1 Ohio State 73 56.8, 86 Maryland 14 11.2
96% 181 Nicholls State 48 47.0, 255 Houston Baptist 27 18.9
96% 120 Army 63 54.2, 250 Massachusetts 7 17.0
96% 13 Florida 56 42.3, 150 Vanderbilt 0 7.7
95% 218 Southern 58 44.8, 255 Houston Baptist 7 18.8
95% 3 Clemson 55 41.8, 117 North Carolina State 10 12.2
94% 175 South Carolina State 62 44.2, 251 Howard 21 17.8
93% 124 Southern Illinois 37 37.9, 225 Missouri State 14 17.8
93% 19 James Madison 54 35.1, 109 New Hampshire 16 12.7
92% 108 Northern Iowa 17 30.2, 219 Indiana State 9 8.9
92% 93 Montana State 45 36.6, 226 Northern Colorado 14 16.0
92% 53 Montana 42 40.6, 156 Idaho 17 16.7
92% 26 Southern Methodist 59 50.5, 149 East Carolina 51 28.2
90% 187 Drake 28 35.0, 246 Jacksonville 14 15.4
89% 217 Alabama State 27 42.4, 254 Texas Southern 21 24.4
89% 11 Georgia 27 33.2, 31 Missouri 0 18.4
89% 6 Oklahoma 42 43.7, 18 Iowa State 41 28.5
88% 178 Dayton 59 41.3, 241 Marist 35 25.0
88% 166 Prairie View 37 43.7, 215 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 20 29.0
87% 68 Florida Atlantic 37 36.3, 155 Florida International 7 22.5
86% 116 Central Connecticut 38 28.6, 200 Saint Francis - Pennsy 31 12.2
86% 14 Washington 19 42.5, 69 Oregon State 7 26.6
85% 118 Monmouth 49 44.7, 222 North Alabama 38 23.5
85% 71 Villanova 35 36.3, 137 Richmond 28 22.3
85% 36 Virginia 33 31.3, 101 Georgia Tech 28 17.3
84% 52 Sacramento State 38 44.1, 171 Northern Arizona 34 28.8
82% 84 Yale 59 45.0, 210 Brown 35 27.9
81% 73 Brigham Young 31 33.0, 139 Liberty 24 19.5
80% 49 Boise State 20 32.2, 83 Wyoming 17 18.7
78% 56 Weber State 30 33.5, 144 North Dakota 27 19.5
77% 131 Toledo 35 35.9, 157 Kent State 33 25.0
77% 8 Wisconsin 24 25.2, 17 Iowa 22 13.8
76% 106 San Diego 51 38.1, 220 Stetson 7 24.9
75% 147 North Carolina - Charl 28 37.6, 239 Texas - El Paso 21 25.2
72% 87 Eastern Washington 48 46.7, 177 Idaho State 5 36.3
71% 102 Wofford 41 37.0, 190 Mercer 7 27.8
71% 88 Louisiana Tech 52 40.1, 133 North Texas 17 29.8
69% 51 Miami - Florida 52 34.4, 65 Louisville 27 24.0
68% 80 Western Michigan 35 38.9, 110 Ball State 31 31.0
67% 114 Hawaii 42 45.6, 136 San Jose State 40 37.4
67% 105 Kennesaw State 38 35.2, 186 Campbell 35 23.5
67% 98 California - Davis 45 36.5, 159 Portland State 28 28.2
67% 41 Louisiana - Lafayette 48 36.4, 134 Coastal Carolina 7 25.8
66% 212 Davidson 52 32.2, 245 Butler 10 26.6
66% 195 Sacred Heart 41 25.9, 216 Wagner 7 17.8
66% 174 Pennsylvania 21 29.8, 206 Cornell 20 21.8
66% 140 William & Mary 55 33.3, 167 Rhode Island 19 26.7
66% 94 Southern Mississippi 37 30.6, 128 Alabama - Birmingham 2 23.7
65% 230 Northwestern State 34 32.7, 242 Lamar 13 28.5
65% 193 Texas State - San Marc 30 21.2, 221 South Alabama 28 15.6
65% 165 Sam Houston State 24 28.9, 199 Abilene Christian 10 24.4
65% 29 Southern California 31 30.8, 59 Arizona State 26 27.0
65% 24 Texas 27 34.1, 22 Kansas State 24 28.4
64% 233 Alabama A&M 48 31.0, 234 Jackson State 43 25.7
64% 146 Southeast Missouri Sta 38 27.9, 151 Eastern Kentucky 31 23.9
64% 107 Albany 21 29.8, 158 Delaware 17 26.2
63% 209 Colgate 24 27.3, 188 Fordham 13 24.4
63% 82 Temple 17 27.7, 121 South Florida 7 25.3
63% 74 Purdue 24 21.5, 132 Northwestern 22 18.3
62% 76 Towson 31 29.3, 125 Stony Brook 14 27.1
62% 47 Dartmouth 27 27.4, 57 Princeton 10 25.3
59% 25 Notre Dame 38 29.0, 33 Duke 7 27.7
58% 126 Austin Peay 38 28.5, 119 Tennessee - Martin 24 27.4
57% 227 Stephen F. Austin 31 36.0, 224 Incarnate Word 24 35.2
52% 205 Charleston Southern 27 26.8, 189 Hampton 20 26.4
50% 55 Virginia Tech 36 33.6, 35 Wake Forest 17 33.7
49% 145 Tennessee - Chattanoog 35 35.1, 169 Samford 27 35.3
48% 130 Troy State 49 29.6, 89 Georgia Southern 28 29.9
46% 30 Appalachian State 20 25.4, 46 South Carolina 15 25.9
45% 198 Norfolk State 38 23.7, 237 North Carolina Central 21 24.5
43% 183 Grambling 19 26.4, 153 Alcorn State 16 27.4
39% 231 Eastern Illinois 49 25.7, 229 Tennessee State 38 27.3
38% 142 Southeast Louisiana 34 30.5, 161 Central Arkansas 0 32.2
38% 127 Western Kentucky 45 24.1, 138 Arkansas 19 25.7
37% 162 Northeast Louisiana 45 38.9, 122 Georgia State 31 42.3
37% 64 Florida State 38 31.2, 70 Boston College 31 33.4
36% 104 Colorado 16 22.9, 67 Stanford 13 27.5
36% 99 Utah State 37 26.9, 97 Fresno State 35 30.5
36% 66 Texas Tech 38 27.9, 75 West Virginia 17 31.4
35% 232 Bucknell 20 24.4, 192 Lehigh 10 28.4
35% 103 Maine 31 27.5, 100 Elon 17 32.5
35% 54 Tennessee 17 19.8, 50 Kentucky 13 24.4
35% 40 Baylor 29 25.4, 37 Texas Christian 23 30.5
34% 213 Robert Morris 41 20.3, 170 Duquesne 21 26.8
34% 211 Texas - San Antonio 24 20.3, 201 Old Dominion 23 27.7
34% 197 Tennessee Tech 37 28.7, 160 Jacksonville State 27 36.8
34% 168 South Dakota 56 31.2, 113 Youngstown State 21 37.9
34% 72 California 33 22.0, 21 Washington State 20 28.6
33% 244 Morehead State 27 28.7, 243 Valparaiso 21 34.2
33% 4 Louisiana State 46 28.6, 2 Alabama 41 39.0
30% 61 Illinois 37 18.4, 38 Michigan State 34 29.0
30% 20 Minnesota 31 23.3, 5 Penn State 26 31.9
28% 256 Presbyterian 24 21.1, 223 Gardner - Webb 14 32.2
28% 176 Columbia 17 20.9, 90 Harvard 10 31.5
27% 236 Western Carolina 23 20.1, 182 East Tennessee State 20 30.3
24% 135 Miami - Ohio 24 26.7, 85 Ohio 21 36.8
18% 203 Lafayette 23 18.5, 164 Holy Cross 20 30.1
15% 154 Illinois State 27 10.4, 60 South Dakota State 18 28.5
12% 249 Delaware State 16 20.2, 194 Bethune - Cookman 13 35.2
9% 202 Nevada - Reno 17 8.8, 79 San Diego State 13 31.6
9% 92 Tulsa 34 27.1, 15 Central Florida 31 47.1
6% 247 Morgan State 22 12.3, 91 North Carolina A&T 16 40.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.73 44 0.84 14 0.86 18 0.97 20 0.90 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 69 78.8 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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