prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 86 San Diego 52 53.3, 243 Morehead State 20 16.8
97% 56 Boise State 42 45.0, 197 New Mexico 9 15.1
97% 8 Oregon 34 50.1, 90 Arizona 6 20.4
97% 2 Clemson 52 47.0, 53 Wake Forest 3 14.4
97% 1 Ohio State 56 61.0, 177 Rutgers 21 5.2
96% 133 Northwestern 45 50.3, 250 Massachusetts 6 12.1
96% 22 North Dakota State 49 48.9, 148 South Dakota 14 17.7
96% 18 James Madison 48 44.5, 123 Richmond 6 16.8
95% 171 Florida A&M 39 51.4, 254 Howard 7 22.9
95% 30 Louisiana - Lafayette 37 39.6, 215 South Alabama 27 11.2
95% 11 Utah 49 39.4, 65 California - Los Angel 3 14.9
94% 62 Florida State 49 41.2, 220 Alabama State 12 13.0
93% 135 Illinois State 17 33.5, 223 Missouri State 12 11.5
93% 127 Tennessee - Martin 28 41.2, 230 Tennessee State 17 18.7
93% 7 Penn State 34 38.3, 43 Indiana 27 15.7
93% 6 Wisconsin 37 37.3, 78 Nebraska 21 17.6
92% 142 Alabama - Birmingham 37 34.4, 235 Texas - El Paso 10 13.1
92% 131 Miami - Ohio 44 37.1, 221 Bowling Green 3 17.8
92% 4 Louisiana State 58 40.3, 57 Mississippi 37 20.2
91% 137 North Dakota 45 35.3, 228 Northern Colorado 38 15.4
91% 33 Oklahoma State 31 43.4, 95 Kansas 13 26.0
90% 176 Grambling 40 34.6, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 14.6
90% 150 Eastern Michigan 42 33.7, 251 Akron 14 13.7
90% 118 North Carolina A&T 47 34.9, 207 Bethune - Cookman 17 16.2
90% 69 Brigham Young 42 43.5, 209 Idaho State 10 20.2
90% 10 Michigan 44 31.8, 40 Michigan State 10 11.2
89% 238 Morgan State 59 39.8, 256 Houston Baptist 26 18.9
89% 102 Army 47 40.3, 214 Virginia Military 6 19.9
89% 83 Maine 34 42.1, 184 Rhode Island 30 25.0
89% 75 Villanova 35 50.3, 248 Long Island 7 10.4
89% 51 Sacramento State 31 35.7, 162 Idaho 7 20.9
89% 3 Alabama 38 41.7, 46 Mississippi State 7 22.3
88% 151 Alcorn State 34 38.4, 236 Alabama A&M 28 18.7
88% 113 Central Connecticut 49 36.7, 202 Robert Morris 28 17.7
88% 107 Georgia Southern 51 41.4, 153 Northeast Louisiana 29 26.8
88% 29 Appalachian State 56 39.7, 126 Georgia State 27 23.7
87% 45 Air Force 38 40.0, 144 Colorado State 21 26.2
86% 80 Southern Mississippi 36 37.3, 203 Texas - San Antonio 17 20.6
85% 206 Charleston Southern 27 29.8, 255 Presbyterian 7 13.6
84% 180 Central Arkansas 30 36.4, 225 Stephen F. Austin 7 21.8
84% 9 Oklahoma 34 41.0, 26 Baylor 31 30.4
83% 115 Southern Illinois 45 35.7, 229 Western Illinois 21 20.1
81% 139 Southeast Missouri Sta 26 31.6, 231 Eastern Illinois 12 19.4
80% 155 Eastern Kentucky 22 39.1, 187 Tennessee Tech 10 26.9
80% 116 Troy State 63 34.0, 199 Texas State - San Marc 27 23.0
80% 60 Kentucky 38 27.0, 169 Vanderbilt 14 12.9
78% 77 Eastern Washington 42 42.0, 167 California Poly 41 30.9
76% 160 South Carolina State 24 28.8, 242 North Carolina Central 0 16.0
75% 110 Kennesaw State 50 38.4, 195 Hampton 7 26.7
74% 27 Washington State 49 35.1, 72 Stanford 22 24.3
73% 32 Texas A&M 30 32.0, 54 South Carolina 6 22.2
73% 24 Cincinnati 20 32.2, 120 South Florida 17 20.3
71% 82 South Dakota State 38 26.5, 125 Northern Iowa 7 14.2
71% 20 Notre Dame 52 33.0, 23 Navy 20 22.0
71% 12 Florida 23 30.5, 42 Missouri 6 21.0
69% 200 Norfolk State 33 34.1, 247 Delaware State 17 24.0
69% 179 Southern 40 34.5, 232 Jackson State 34 23.9
68% 175 Samford 31 42.7, 226 Western Carolina 13 33.7
68% 101 Austin Peay 42 32.6, 198 Murray State 7 23.3
67% 181 Saint Francis - Pennsy 42 22.9, 233 Wagner 8 13.1
67% 174 Sacred Heart 13 32.2, 204 Lehigh 6 23.2
67% 128 Southeast Louisiana 35 34.1, 211 Abilene Christian 14 25.7
67% 16 Iowa State 23 40.2, 31 Texas 21 31.0
66% 117 Hawaii 21 42.4, 163 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 36.9
66% 108 Arkansas State 28 36.2, 145 Coastal Carolina 27 29.6
66% 48 Montana 35 33.0, 61 Weber State 16 25.7
66% 44 Virginia Tech 45 29.9, 96 Georgia Tech 0 24.9
66% 17 Iowa 23 25.3, 15 Minnesota 19 19.8
65% 196 East Tennessee State 38 26.5, 208 Mercer 33 21.3
65% 182 Davidson 42 32.3, 239 Stetson 14 25.7
65% 164 Holy Cross 49 28.9, 201 Fordham 27 24.5
65% 121 Monmouth 47 34.9, 178 Campbell 10 29.5
65% 28 Southern California 41 25.6, 59 California 17 21.1
64% 189 Nicholls State 34 28.8, 188 McNeese State 20 24.4
64% 138 Tennessee - Chattanoog 34 28.2, 146 The Citadel 33 24.4
64% 106 Albany 24 23.4, 132 New Hampshire 17 19.5
64% 70 Towson 31 31.9, 103 William & Mary 10 27.7
64% 25 Memphis 45 36.9, 66 Houston 27 32.8
63% 105 San Diego State 17 23.0, 99 Fresno State 7 19.9
63% 88 Wofford 24 28.6, 71 Furman 7 26.8
63% 67 Louisville 34 34.8, 130 North Carolina State 20 32.6
63% 49 Pittsburgh 34 27.6, 38 North Carolina 27 24.4
61% 114 Utah State 26 25.2, 85 Wyoming 21 23.6
56% 5 Georgia 21 21.8, 13 Auburn 14 20.9
54% 249 Butler 24 24.9, 245 Valparaiso 21 24.4
54% 156 Delaware 17 24.4, 141 Stony Brook 10 23.7
54% 36 Texas Christian 33 29.3, 55 Texas Tech 31 28.7
53% 217 North Alabama 34 33.1, 234 Gardner - Webb 30 32.6
52% 81 Montana State 27 30.9, 104 California - Davis 17 30.6
46% 219 New Mexico State 41 33.4, 224 Incarnate Word 28 34.2
46% 186 Southern Utah 31 38.9, 157 Northern Arizona 30 39.5
42% 84 Western Michigan 37 34.0, 98 Ohio 34 35.0
39% 73 Oregon State 35 30.1, 58 Arizona State 34 31.7
38% 194 Colgate 16 22.1, 192 Lafayette 0 24.3
37% 92 Temple 29 25.6, 41 Tulane 21 29.2
36% 168 Dayton 46 32.3, 193 Drake 29 36.2
36% 136 Northern Illinois 31 27.6, 140 Toledo 28 31.4
36% 111 Marshall 31 26.8, 68 Louisiana Tech 10 30.9
34% 227 Bucknell 20 16.2, 190 Georgetown 17 23.2
34% 147 Kent State 30 24.4, 87 Buffalo 27 30.9
34% 124 Central Michigan 45 28.2, 97 Ball State 44 34.5
33% 246 Jacksonville 52 24.2, 240 Marist 45 30.7
33% 213 Indiana State 24 22.4, 152 Youngstown State 17 30.6
30% 89 Yale 51 26.9, 74 Princeton 14 36.9
29% 241 Bryant 20 20.1, 183 Duquesne 16 30.4
26% 256 Houston Baptist 31 24.1, 244 Lamar 26 35.3
21% 216 Brown 48 24.8, 166 Columbia 24 40.6
19% 185 Rice 31 18.4, 119 Middle Tennessee State 28 31.5
19% 112 Syracuse 49 23.2, 50 Duke 6 34.6
18% 173 Pennsylvania 24 21.0, 109 Harvard 20 36.2
13% 93 West Virginia 24 16.8, 21 Kansas State 20 35.1
9% 222 Northwestern State 31 20.6, 161 Sam Houston State 28 40.1
4% 205 Cornell 20 5.3, 35 Dartmouth 17 36.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.22 39 1.10 16 1.00 24 0.96 25 0.98 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113 89 86.5 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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