prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 178 Sam Houston State 37 52.3, 256 Houston Baptist 14 12.7
97% 104 North Carolina A&T 54 38.6, 244 North Carolina Central 0 8.0
97% 28 Appalachian State 35 45.1, 208 Texas State - San Marc 13 6.9
97% 17 James Madison 55 51.0, 181 Rhode Island 21 18.8
97% 4 Alabama 66 64.0, 234 Western Carolina 3 5.1
97% 3 Louisiana State 56 58.7, 159 Arkansas 20 15.2
96% 90 Kennesaw State 42 49.0, 230 Gardner - Webb 14 18.5
96% 66 Weber State 38 45.3, 216 Idaho State 10 17.5
96% 63 Brigham Young 56 58.6, 250 Massachusetts 24 18.1
95% 83 San Diego 47 47.0, 241 Jacksonville 28 20.5
95% 12 Wisconsin 45 39.9, 70 Purdue 24 13.9
94% 114 Miami - Ohio 20 40.2, 253 Akron 17 8.0
94% 43 Air Force 44 40.4, 197 New Mexico 22 16.5
94% 13 Auburn 52 51.0, 174 Samford 0 14.5
93% 161 Dayton 51 49.3, 249 Butler 38 23.6
93% 91 Austin Peay 35 39.5, 229 Eastern Illinois 7 15.0
93% 74 Eastern Washington 53 47.1, 172 Portland State 46 27.2
93% 9 Oklahoma 28 45.8, 38 Texas Christian 24 25.7
93% 6 Utah 35 41.6, 94 Arizona 7 17.1
92% 130 Northern Iowa 38 37.6, 232 Western Illinois 7 13.8
92% 107 Ohio 66 38.5, 236 Bowling Green 24 19.1
92% 19 Iowa State 41 41.3, 103 Kansas 31 18.5
92% 1 Ohio State 28 42.8, 11 Penn State 17 20.7
91% 224 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 45 44.7, 251 Texas Southern 13 26.1
91% 97 Monmouth 48 43.9, 217 Hampton 13 22.1
91% 52 Mississippi State 45 42.0, 220 Abilene Christian 7 14.6
91% 18 Iowa 19 33.8, 54 Illinois 10 14.3
90% 15 Notre Dame 40 41.3, 57 Boston College 7 22.2
89% 166 Saint Francis - Pennsy 35 34.9, 248 Delaware State 21 15.2
89% 62 Dartmouth 29 44.7, 185 Brown 23 20.0
89% 41 Virginia 55 37.3, 131 Liberty 27 18.8
89% 39 North Carolina 56 47.0, 202 Mercer 7 21.6
89% 21 Southern California 52 42.3, 72 California - Los Angel 35 25.4
89% 7 Georgia 19 33.1, 26 Texas A&M 13 15.6
88% 67 Florida Atlantic 40 38.9, 198 Texas - San Antonio 26 19.7
88% 16 Minnesota 38 32.6, 146 Northwestern 22 13.0
87% 22 Washington State 54 46.5, 65 Oregon State 53 31.0
86% 225 Alabama A&M 30 35.3, 255 Mississippi Valley Sta 13 17.7
86% 123 Georgia State 28 35.7, 200 South Alabama 15 22.3
86% 29 North Dakota State 21 37.5, 120 Southern Illinois 7 21.2
85% 35 Louisiana - Lafayette 53 42.6, 93 Troy State 3 28.4
84% 5 Michigan 39 35.5, 33 Indiana 14 22.0
83% 135 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 31.1, 206 Murray State 24 17.3
82% 53 Michigan State 27 30.5, 154 Rutgers 0 15.7
81% 138 North Dakota 36 37.9, 188 Southern Utah 18 25.8
81% 125 Middle Tennessee State 38 33.6, 205 Old Dominion 17 20.1
78% 95 Wyoming 17 33.9, 134 Colorado State 7 23.1
78% 31 Cincinnati 15 29.8, 81 Temple 13 17.2
76% 24 Memphis 49 37.7, 112 South Florida 10 26.0
74% 92 Villanova 55 34.1, 158 Delaware 33 22.0
72% 136 East Carolina 31 36.8, 214 Connecticut 24 26.9
72% 44 Sacramento State 27 35.7, 113 California - Davis 17 24.5
71% 86 Buffalo 49 35.7, 147 Toledo 30 25.2
71% 50 Kentucky 50 27.5, 137 Tennessee - Martin 7 15.7
69% 195 McNeese State 27 29.9, 245 Lamar 3 19.6
67% 168 Alcorn State 41 35.1, 228 Jackson State 6 24.1
67% 149 Holy Cross 24 24.8, 189 Georgetown 0 16.1
67% 108 Princeton 28 34.4, 155 Pennsylvania 7 26.4
67% 101 Central Connecticut 43 31.3, 194 Duquesne 10 21.9
67% 73 Wofford 31 32.5, 140 The Citadel 11 24.9
67% 61 Yale 50 33.7, 127 Harvard 43 24.1
67% 20 Central Florida 34 42.9, 45 Tulane 31 34.2
66% 215 New Mexico State 44 30.9, 235 Texas - El Paso 35 25.2
66% 184 Central Arkansas 52 32.9, 227 Incarnate Word 35 25.4
66% 173 California Poly 28 31.5, 219 Northern Colorado 21 26.2
66% 56 Louisville 56 38.4, 85 Syracuse 34 32.9
66% 48 Boise State 56 31.6, 116 Utah State 21 25.6
66% 34 Oklahoma State 20 34.0, 84 West Virginia 13 28.2
66% 32 Navy 35 44.0, 36 Southern Methodist 28 38.1
66% 30 Virginia Tech 28 29.1, 42 Pittsburgh 0 22.3
65% 201 Fordham 31 31.9, 218 Bucknell 14 26.4
65% 156 South Carolina State 20 31.2, 190 Norfolk State 17 25.3
65% 60 Wake Forest 39 32.5, 79 Duke 27 27.8
64% 204 Charleston Southern 41 27.0, 203 Campbell 31 23.3
64% 27 Kansas State 30 29.9, 55 Texas Tech 27 26.4
63% 199 Indiana State 51 22.8, 223 Missouri State 24 20.0
63% 183 Cornell 35 22.8, 192 Columbia 9 19.5
63% 133 Georgia Tech 28 24.0, 126 North Carolina State 26 21.5
63% 124 New Hampshire 28 26.6, 98 Maine 10 23.7
62% 25 Baylor 24 33.3, 23 Texas 10 31.4
61% 242 Stetson 31 30.3, 243 Morehead State 16 28.8
58% 77 Houston 24 32.0, 87 Tulsa 14 30.8
56% 111 Albany 31 25.6, 148 Stony Brook 26 24.8
54% 115 Arkansas State 38 31.9, 102 Georgia Southern 33 31.3
53% 177 Vanderbilt 38 20.9, 191 East Tennessee State 0 20.4
50% 69 Nebraska 54 31.7, 88 Maryland 7 31.7
48% 164 Youngstown State 21 24.7, 153 Illinois State 3 25.1
47% 240 Marist 26 27.1, 246 Valparaiso 14 27.4
46% 117 Hawaii 14 25.1, 118 San Diego State 11 25.7
40% 176 Nevada - Las Vegas 38 32.6, 129 San Jose State 35 34.0
37% 196 Robert Morris 16 25.6, 175 Sacred Heart 14 28.2
37% 80 Montana State 48 27.1, 40 Montana 14 30.0
37% 68 California 24 17.7, 76 Stanford 20 20.1
36% 237 Bryant 14 20.0, 238 Wagner 10 24.8
36% 209 Lafayette 17 19.7, 210 Lehigh 16 24.3
36% 179 Rice 20 27.3, 144 North Texas 14 30.4
36% 163 Idaho 60 31.3, 150 Northern Arizona 53 35.7
36% 162 Northeast Louisiana 45 34.5, 143 Coastal Carolina 42 37.8
36% 145 Eastern Kentucky 29 23.1, 165 Jacksonville State 23 26.9
36% 139 Kent State 41 30.4, 105 Ball State 38 33.8
36% 132 Alabama - Birmingham 20 25.3, 82 Louisiana Tech 14 29.5
36% 121 William & Mary 21 24.2, 128 Richmond 15 28.4
35% 207 Drake 31 24.3, 171 Davidson 28 30.4
35% 151 North Carolina - Charl 24 26.9, 99 Marshall 13 32.1
34% 213 Bethune - Cookman 31 25.3, 167 Florida A&M 27 32.1
34% 152 Eastern Michigan 45 25.6, 142 Northern Illinois 17 31.2
34% 100 Western Kentucky 28 22.7, 75 Southern Mississippi 10 29.1
33% 231 Stephen F. Austin 32 30.0, 211 Northwestern State 20 37.8
33% 221 Tennessee State 37 31.8, 186 Tennessee Tech 27 39.3
33% 49 Tennessee 24 20.6, 46 Missouri 20 27.9
23% 254 Howard 20 25.7, 233 Morgan State 15 37.6
23% 122 Elon 25 21.4, 59 Towson 23 33.1
22% 187 Nicholls State 28 23.8, 119 Southeast Louisiana 27 37.1
22% 157 South Dakota 24 24.9, 71 South Dakota State 21 37.6
18% 222 Virginia Military 31 26.4, 141 Tennessee - Chattanoog 24 39.8
13% 182 Nevada - Reno 35 21.7, 109 Fresno State 28 38.8
13% 96 Colorado 20 18.3, 14 Washington 14 35.8
12% 58 Arizona State 31 20.1, 8 Oregon 28 37.8
10% 169 Florida International 30 14.7, 37 Miami - Florida 24 33.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.16 48 0.87 12 0.89 23 0.96 28 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 119 86 90.6 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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