prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 7 Penn State 27 48.9, 171 Rutgers 6 5.2
96% 74 Buffalo 49 44.2, 232 Bowling Green 7 13.6
96% 18 Central Florida 34 46.1, 125 South Florida 7 21.3
96% 8 Georgia 52 35.0, 133 Georgia Tech 7 8.9
96% 2 Clemson 38 39.5, 57 South Carolina 3 11.4
95% 98 Ohio 52 41.6, 251 Akron 3 12.0
95% 26 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 49.5, 146 Northeast Louisiana 30 22.8
95% 11 Oregon 24 48.5, 56 Oregon State 10 23.3
95% 6 Utah 45 37.7, 84 Colorado 15 7.4
94% 76 Temple 49 40.4, 217 Connecticut 17 12.4
93% 89 Louisiana Tech 41 41.0, 195 Texas - San Antonio 27 18.3
93% 41 Tennessee 28 36.0, 162 Vanderbilt 10 12.0
93% 9 Florida 40 38.5, 59 Florida State 17 15.7
91% 132 Liberty 49 41.7, 210 New Mexico State 28 23.8
88% 38 Boise State 31 40.4, 131 Colorado State 24 25.8
88% 4 Louisiana State 50 44.4, 25 Texas A&M 7 26.2
87% 62 Missouri 24 36.7, 145 Arkansas 14 20.7
87% 23 Baylor 61 35.4, 96 Kansas 6 21.5
86% 28 Texas 49 39.1, 55 Texas Tech 24 27.2
86% 14 Notre Dame 45 33.4, 78 Stanford 24 17.7
85% 137 Coastal Carolina 24 34.6, 199 Texas State - San Marc 21 19.8
85% 47 Michigan State 19 34.0, 130 Maryland 16 17.8
80% 44 Arizona State 24 37.2, 101 Arizona 14 23.5
79% 46 Air Force 20 27.7, 99 Wyoming 6 16.2
77% 75 Western Kentucky 31 31.1, 117 Middle Tennessee State 26 20.0
76% 30 Appalachian State 48 40.0, 107 Troy State 13 27.4
75% 134 Utah State 38 34.2, 197 New Mexico 25 23.4
73% 103 Georgia Southern 38 38.7, 122 Georgia State 10 27.5
72% 173 Rice 30 29.6, 235 Texas - El Paso 16 18.7
69% 108 Marshall 30 28.2, 150 Florida International 27 19.3
69% 39 North Carolina 41 34.8, 135 North Carolina State 10 24.7
69% 21 Memphis 34 35.6, 40 Cincinnati 24 26.8
68% 156 Prairie View 20 33.8, 226 Alabama State 17 25.4
67% 65 Florida Atlantic 34 34.5, 88 Southern Mississippi 17 26.8
67% 17 Washington 31 38.1, 27 Washington State 13 29.7
67% 13 Oklahoma 34 41.6, 35 Oklahoma State 16 34.2
67% 1 Ohio State 56 36.0, 5 Michigan 27 27.4
66% 111 Central Michigan 49 36.6, 149 Toledo 7 30.1
66% 43 Kentucky 45 34.1, 53 Louisville 13 28.5
65% 170 Illinois State 24 24.5, 136 Southeast Missouri Sta 6 18.7
65% 138 North Carolina - Charl 38 30.9, 211 Old Dominion 22 25.5
65% 54 Mississippi State 21 30.6, 52 Mississippi 20 26.0
65% 32 Navy 56 33.2, 67 Houston 41 28.2
65% 19 Iowa 27 24.8, 42 Nebraska 24 19.7
64% 106 Ball State 41 32.5, 129 Miami - Ohio 27 28.3
64% 79 Monmouth 44 32.3, 139 Holy Cross 27 28.2
64% 29 Southern Methodist 37 45.9, 49 Tulane 20 40.7
63% 86 Tulsa 49 34.0, 123 East Carolina 24 31.1
62% 37 Indiana 44 31.0, 70 Purdue 41 29.1
62% 10 Wisconsin 38 30.2, 16 Minnesota 17 28.1
61% 140 Alabama - Birmingham 26 29.1, 159 North Texas 21 27.7
55% 95 Kennesaw State 28 30.3, 68 Wofford 21 29.5
50% 119 San Jose State 17 36.4, 126 Fresno State 16 36.4
47% 64 California 28 24.9, 72 California - Los Angel 18 25.3
47% 34 Kansas State 27 27.8, 20 Iowa State 17 28.3
38% 114 Hawaii 52 27.8, 100 Army 31 29.9
38% 36 Virginia 39 29.1, 22 Virginia Tech 30 30.9
37% 186 Southern 30 25.5, 158 Grambling 28 27.8
37% 118 San Diego State 13 16.5, 77 Brigham Young 3 19.0
37% 12 Auburn 48 23.4, 3 Alabama 45 26.9
36% 175 Nevada - Las Vegas 33 26.3, 176 Nevada - Reno 30 30.1
35% 128 Kent State 34 28.6, 124 Eastern Michigan 26 33.5
35% 102 Albany 42 27.7, 92 Central Connecticut 14 32.6
35% 94 Syracuse 39 31.2, 45 Wake Forest 30 35.4
34% 163 Northern Illinois 17 29.3, 85 Western Michigan 14 35.3
34% 113 Southeast Louisiana 45 27.8, 91 Villanova 44 37.2
34% 97 Duke 27 21.5, 50 Miami - Florida 17 27.8
34% 93 Austin Peay 42 25.7, 82 Furman 6 31.2
34% 69 Boston College 26 23.5, 66 Pittsburgh 19 29.3
33% 189 South Alabama 34 23.6, 112 Arkansas State 30 32.1
33% 184 Nicholls State 24 24.4, 127 North Dakota 6 33.2
33% 144 Northern Iowa 17 23.1, 83 San Diego 3 32.6
32% 142 Northwestern 29 16.0, 48 Illinois 10 28.5
16% 81 West Virginia 20 18.0, 33 Texas Christian 17 32.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.47 40 0.84 6 1.33 10 1.05 14 1.06 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 74 52 54.5 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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