prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
55% 19 Florida 24 37.7, 39 Miami - Florida 20 35.3
50% 113 Youngstown State 45 38.5, 91 Samford 22 38.3
35% 133 Hawaii 45 45.7, 78 Arizona 38 53.2
35% 116 Villanova 34 27.1, 68 Colgate 14 37.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.90 2 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 2.3 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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