prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 54 Texas Tech 35 66.4, 252 Houston Baptist 33 24.6
74% 21 Texas 59 55.0, 227 Texas - El Paso 3 12.1
74% 11 Oklahoma 48 65.5, 211 Missouri State 0 23.4
69% 57 West Virginia 56 50.6, 253 Eastern Kentucky 10 12.5
68% 29 Appalachian State 35 50.0, 142 North Carolina - Charl 20 25.5
68% 27 Army 37 46.6, 140 Northeast Louisiana 7 22.6
68% 2 Clemson 37 51.4, 52 Wake Forest 13 25.9
67% 14 Notre Dame 27 44.6, 59 Duke 13 26.2
66% 105 Georgia Southern 27 43.0, 206 Campbell 26 27.6
66% 62 Pittsburgh 55 34.9, 174 Austin Peay 0 16.6
65% 64 Miami - Florida 31 42.6, 88 Alabama - Birmingham 14 31.2
64% 55 Tulane 27 36.6, 117 South Alabama 24 28.9
64% 34 North Carolina 31 45.2, 72 Syracuse 6 35.6
63% 74 Louisville 35 42.5, 99 Western Kentucky 21 35.0
58% 121 South Florida 27 37.4, 154 The Citadel 6 33.2
44% 186 Texas - San Antonio 51 27.0, 181 Texas State - San Marc 48 30.3
36% 148 Coastal Carolina 38 34.4, 108 Kansas 23 42.2
36% 51 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 32.2, 24 Iowa State 14 42.5
35% 114 Georgia Tech 16 29.1, 60 Florida State 13 41.3
33% 104 Arkansas State 35 22.2, 31 Kansas State 31 41.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.88 15 1.11 3 1.33 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 20 15 13.3 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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