prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 61 Wake Forest 66 42.5, 201 Campbell 14 20.7
90% 111 Western Kentucky 20 37.1, 241 Middle Tennessee State 17 17.3
82% 24 North Dakota State 39 46.7, 168 Central Arkansas 28 9.0
78% 42 Oklahoma State 47 34.8, 130 Kansas 7 20.6
78% 2 Clemson 41 47.8, 37 Virginia 23 15.8
75% 33 Cincinnati 28 36.2, 147 South Florida 7 12.4
75% 5 Brigham Young 45 41.0, 98 Louisiana Tech 14 11.0
73% 58 Alabama - Birmingham 21 44.7, 167 Texas - San Antonio 13 25.2
72% 109 Georgia Southern 35 38.3, 207 Northeast Louisiana 30 24.2
69% 46 Air Force 40 46.1, 151 Navy 7 21.5
69% 4 Louisiana State 41 48.4, 123 Vanderbilt 7 15.4
68% 67 Army 55 35.0, 218 Abilene Christian 23 11.0
67% 3 Alabama 52 43.0, 26 Texas A&M 24 18.9
66% 49 Florida Atlantic 21 45.9, 149 North Carolina - Charl 17 26.1
66% 36 Kansas State 31 37.3, 63 Texas Tech 21 27.2
66% 22 Southern Methodist 30 41.3, 27 Memphis 27 32.3
66% 8 Florida 38 38.1, 53 South Carolina 24 15.7
65% 124 Liberty 28 44.2, 219 North Alabama 7 31.2
64% 40 Virginia Tech 38 31.8, 79 Duke 31 24.6
63% 89 Florida State 41 35.0, 150 Jacksonville State 24 27.0
63% 6 Georgia 27 27.8, 12 Auburn 6 19.0
62% 34 North Carolina 26 34.6, 69 Boston College 22 31.0
54% 158 Georgia State 49 38.7, 155 East Carolina 29 37.2
52% 52 Tennessee 35 26.4, 41 Missouri 12 25.5
42% 55 West Virginia 27 26.8, 25 Baylor 21 30.2
37% 54 Mississippi 42 22.1, 29 Kentucky 41 30.1
35% 215 Southern Mississippi 41 38.6, 140 North Texas 31 46.4
35% 38 Texas Christian 33 27.3, 16 Texas 31 41.5
34% 135 Coastal Carolina 52 33.6, 32 Arkansas State 23 39.5
34% 131 Arkansas 21 19.6, 43 Mississippi State 14 40.5
34% 106 North Carolina State 30 19.6, 65 Pittsburgh 29 30.0
33% 35 Iowa State 37 31.4, 14 Oklahoma 30 39.2
30% 177 Houston Baptist 33 35.4, 146 Eastern Kentucky 30 54.4
11% 104 Tulsa 34 23.9, 20 Central Florida 26 50.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.22 21 0.94 6 1.33 2 0.59 2 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 34 24 23.5 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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