prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
96% 125 Liberty 40 42.6, 219 Northeast Louisiana 7 22.8
96% 14 Auburn 30 42.3, 126 Arkansas 28 11.8
95% 12 Notre Dame 42 41.6, 106 Florida State 26 14.1
93% 5 Brigham Young 27 52.1, 156 Texas - San Antonio 20 9.2
91% 2 Clemson 42 38.6, 30 Miami - Florida 17 10.1
90% 55 Army 14 34.2, 198 The Citadel 9 11.2
89% 6 Georgia 44 33.9, 50 Tennessee 21 11.0
87% 99 Louisiana Tech 21 33.9, 212 Texas - El Paso 17 14.4
86% 3 Alabama 63 46.4, 48 Mississippi 48 24.9
77% 19 Marshall 38 28.5, 135 Western Kentucky 14 11.5
66% 57 South Carolina 41 27.4, 132 Vanderbilt 7 19.8
66% 32 Iowa State 31 38.7, 65 Texas Tech 15 30.3
64% 148 Jacksonville State 34 41.0, 188 Mercer 28 28.8
64% 35 Kentucky 24 28.0, 46 Mississippi State 2 23.2
63% 139 North Carolina - Charl 49 38.8, 168 North Texas 21 34.7
63% 121 Troy State 37 36.2, 115 Texas State - San Marc 17 32.7
62% 33 North Carolina 56 33.8, 38 Virginia Tech 45 29.9
56% 71 Houston 49 36.4, 61 Tulane 31 34.4
55% 100 Arkansas State 50 34.9, 120 Central Arkansas 27 34.0
50% 18 Oklahoma 53 41.2, 17 Texas 45 41.3
46% 76 Boston College 31 22.2, 63 Pittsburgh 30 22.8
37% 131 Georgia Tech 46 32.7, 75 Louisville 27 34.5
37% 40 Kansas State 21 24.1, 36 Texas Christian 14 29.7
35% 181 Navy 31 21.7, 81 Temple 29 33.8
34% 173 East Carolina 44 24.1, 153 South Florida 24 34.0
34% 82 Duke 38 23.5, 86 Syracuse 24 27.3
34% 26 Texas A&M 41 25.9, 10 Florida 38 33.3
33% 90 North Carolina State 38 25.5, 31 Virginia 21 38.5
28% 238 Middle Tennessee State 31 19.5, 138 Florida International 28 39.7
8% 51 Missouri 45 19.0, 4 Louisiana State 41 44.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.93 14 0.77 2 0.67 4 1.14 6 0.89 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 30 19 21.8 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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