prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 2 Clemson 73 44.8, 116 Georgia Tech 7 12.2
92% 12 Notre Dame 12 47.3, 96 Louisville 7 21.8
78% 125 Georgia Southern 41 54.1, 245 Massachusetts 0 23.4
76% 127 Central Arkansas 33 33.0, 211 Missouri State 24 25.4
76% 99 Arkansas State 59 43.0, 145 Georgia State 52 33.1
75% 63 Army 28 31.7, 121 Texas - San Antonio 16 17.9
73% 17 Marshall 35 33.5, 118 Louisiana Tech 17 15.8
72% 68 Alabama - Birmingham 37 30.2, 136 Western Kentucky 14 19.2
71% 3 Alabama 41 37.4, 4 Georgia 24 25.1
69% 24 Miami - Florida 31 29.6, 62 Pittsburgh 19 16.8
68% 35 Virginia Tech 40 38.6, 75 Boston College 14 26.2
67% 88 Temple 39 33.7, 180 South Florida 37 18.3
67% 59 North Carolina State 31 31.7, 78 Duke 20 26.8
66% 11 Brigham Young 43 39.1, 70 Houston 26 25.0
64% 153 Jacksonville State 24 38.8, 219 North Alabama 17 30.3
64% 110 Troy State 31 32.9, 164 Eastern Kentucky 29 27.9
62% 43 Wake Forest 40 36.2, 42 Virginia 23 34.6
55% 28 Texas A&M 28 27.3, 53 Mississippi State 14 26.6
42% 189 South Alabama 30 24.9, 144 Texas State - San Marc 20 26.2
42% 54 Southern Methodist 37 36.9, 74 Tulane 34 37.9
37% 166 Navy 27 31.2, 163 East Carolina 23 33.5
37% 32 Kentucky 34 23.4, 34 Tennessee 7 25.8
36% 207 North Texas 52 33.6, 218 Middle Tennessee State 35 38.9
36% 38 South Carolina 30 22.0, 19 Auburn 22 25.6
35% 93 Arkansas 33 32.4, 39 Mississippi 21 38.1
33% 82 Florida State 31 29.0, 26 North Carolina 28 34.7
33% 65 Memphis 50 29.2, 23 Central Florida 49 37.6
32% 128 Liberty 38 25.1, 101 Syracuse 21 32.0
25% 106 Coastal Carolina 30 25.2, 47 Louisiana - Lafayette 27 38.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.58 16 0.76 8 1.18 0 0.00 2 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 29 18 20.0 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net