prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 37 Kansas State 55 39.4, 156 Kansas 14 12.6
97% 12 Brigham Young 52 45.1, 146 Texas State - San Marc 14 12.0
97% 2 Clemson 47 55.2, 131 Syracuse 21 8.0
94% 106 Liberty 56 45.6, 211 Southern Mississippi 35 23.4
92% 35 Appalachian State 45 43.2, 86 Arkansas State 17 25.9
92% 3 Alabama 48 45.3, 43 Tennessee 17 23.5
89% 118 North Carolina - Charl 38 29.2, 213 Texas - El Paso 28 14.8
89% 6 Louisiana State 52 41.5, 31 South Carolina 24 24.5
86% 26 Central Florida 51 45.6, 69 Tulane 34 31.9
79% 165 South Alabama 38 35.3, 229 Northeast Louisiana 14 21.6
76% 64 Army 49 36.9, 191 Mercer 3 16.5
70% 22 Miami - Florida 19 36.8, 52 Virginia 14 23.1
68% 96 Boston College 48 32.4, 137 Georgia Tech 27 22.1
68% 16 Notre Dame 45 28.1, 62 Pittsburgh 3 16.2
67% 36 North Carolina 48 38.8, 54 North Carolina State 21 30.3
67% 18 Texas 27 42.2, 27 Baylor 16 31.7
67% 1 Ohio State 52 57.2, 48 Nebraska 17 22.6
66% 78 Louisville 48 35.8, 87 Florida State 16 30.6
66% 67 Coastal Carolina 28 30.4, 125 Georgia Southern 14 22.1
66% 44 Memphis 41 35.8, 99 Temple 29 25.5
66% 33 Oklahoma State 24 28.0, 38 Iowa State 21 23.3
66% 23 Marshall 20 35.2, 55 Florida Atlantic 9 21.0
66% 15 Oklahoma 33 37.6, 40 Texas Christian 14 32.1
66% 5 Wisconsin 45 48.1, 84 Illinois 7 20.2
65% 100 Tulsa 42 30.5, 179 South Florida 13 25.8
65% 20 Auburn 35 34.9, 39 Mississippi 28 29.8
64% 83 San Diego State 34 35.5, 154 Nevada - Las Vegas 6 19.0
64% 77 Houston 37 33.8, 163 Navy 21 27.6
64% 46 Boise State 42 43.4, 98 Utah State 13 29.6
63% 34 Cincinnati 42 33.2, 42 Southern Methodist 13 30.6
59% 148 Eastern Kentucky 31 28.4, 113 Central Arkansas 28 27.3
58% 102 Northwestern 43 30.7, 103 Maryland 3 25.8
57% 8 Michigan 49 36.5, 19 Minnesota 24 32.4
55% 30 Wake Forest 23 38.9, 28 Virginia Tech 16 38.0
54% 41 Missouri 20 26.2, 24 Kentucky 10 25.5
49% 124 Texas - San Antonio 27 31.1, 117 Louisiana Tech 26 31.3
47% 72 Texas Tech 34 32.1, 49 West Virginia 27 32.6
46% 51 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 26.7, 65 Alabama - Birmingham 20 27.1
44% 159 Jacksonville State 19 26.3, 143 Florida International 10 27.3
40% 95 Hawaii 34 37.2, 97 Fresno State 19 42.4
38% 162 Nevada - Reno 37 24.0, 93 Wyoming 34 32.0
38% 150 Western Kentucky 13 23.4, 153 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 28.5
37% 60 Purdue 24 25.0, 13 Iowa 20 36.2
37% 47 Indiana 36 27.6, 7 Penn State 35 39.9
36% 219 Middle Tennessee State 40 24.2, 180 Rice 34 34.5
36% 136 San Jose State 17 28.1, 45 Air Force 6 42.6
35% 161 Rutgers 38 14.3, 53 Michigan State 27 36.5
33% 127 Georgia State 36 33.2, 116 Troy State 34 41.0
30% 240 Stephen F. Austin 35 15.7, 212 Abilene Christian 32 31.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.90 28 1.04 2 1.29 3 1.13 6 1.06 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 49 35 33.8 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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