prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 3 Clemson 34 50.7, 84 Boston College 28 11.6
95% 31 Appalachian State 31 47.6, 238 Northeast Louisiana 13 14.1
95% 15 Brigham Young 41 41.8, 164 Western Kentucky 10 9.2
95% 2 Alabama 41 49.4, 54 Mississippi State 0 17.5
94% 65 Southern Methodist 51 39.4, 172 Navy 37 23.1
93% 37 Iowa State 52 38.8, 178 Kansas 22 17.0
91% 44 Louisiana - Lafayette 44 35.9, 154 Texas State - San Marc 34 21.3
90% 25 Texas A&M 42 37.1, 78 Arkansas 31 20.5
89% 11 Notre Dame 31 41.0, 144 Georgia Tech 13 14.6
80% 71 Tulsa 34 40.6, 168 East Carolina 30 23.8
80% 14 Oklahoma 62 45.9, 66 Texas Tech 28 33.6
79% 10 Florida 41 39.1, 39 Missouri 17 22.6
78% 125 Georgia Southern 24 26.1, 173 South Alabama 17 12.9
73% 83 Duke 53 31.6, 111 North Carolina - Charl 19 22.0
72% 35 Wake Forest 38 38.7, 128 Syracuse 14 27.2
69% 42 Mississippi 54 36.1, 136 Vanderbilt 21 27.0
68% 22 Cincinnati 49 37.1, 56 Memphis 10 25.5
67% 59 Florida Atlantic 24 36.6, 121 Texas - San Antonio 3 23.3
67% 4 Georgia 14 26.4, 26 Kentucky 3 16.9
66% 28 Central Florida 44 44.4, 70 Houston 21 37.2
65% 88 Tulane 38 36.4, 108 Temple 3 30.7
65% 60 Coastal Carolina 51 40.5, 110 Georgia State 0 34.4
64% 41 Indiana 37 36.0, 152 Rutgers 21 21.4
64% 27 Virginia Tech 42 36.6, 64 Louisville 35 33.3
63% 99 Fresno State 38 38.8, 133 Colorado State 17 28.7
63% 18 Texas 41 34.3, 33 Oklahoma State 34 32.1
63% 1 Ohio State 38 37.4, 8 Penn State 25 27.4
62% 123 Southern Illinois 20 37.2, 138 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 30.1
59% 179 Rice 30 35.4, 217 Southern Mississippi 6 32.1
57% 95 Wyoming 31 31.2, 89 Hawaii 7 28.0
57% 57 Purdue 31 33.4, 92 Illinois 24 30.4
54% 143 San Jose State 38 36.5, 184 New Mexico 21 34.5
53% 79 San Diego State 38 23.2, 101 Utah State 7 21.9
49% 157 Nevada - Reno 37 30.6, 160 Nevada - Las Vegas 19 31.0
49% 40 Boise State 49 25.6, 47 Air Force 30 26.1
38% 48 West Virginia 37 24.2, 32 Kansas State 10 26.0
37% 51 Virginia 44 30.1, 30 North Carolina 41 32.9
36% 117 Troy State 38 34.7, 103 Arkansas State 10 39.0
36% 106 Maryland 45 24.5, 21 Minnesota 44 38.2
35% 213 Abilene Christian 20 27.5, 196 Mercer 17 35.8
35% 118 Louisiana Tech 37 25.7, 73 Alabama - Birmingham 34 29.5
35% 90 Northwestern 21 9.1, 13 Iowa 20 26.9
34% 52 Michigan State 27 12.0, 7 Michigan 24 34.7
34% 43 Texas Christian 33 23.0, 36 Baylor 23 29.5
34% 24 Auburn 48 29.3, 6 Louisiana State 11 35.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.31 23 0.87 4 1.33 4 1.18 7 1.06 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 45 33 31.7 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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