prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 9 Oklahoma 62 60.2, 190 Kansas 9 16.3
97% 1 Ohio State 49 61.4, 151 Rutgers 27 6.3
93% 22 Marshall 51 60.8, 246 Massachusetts 10 9.7
92% 38 Coastal Carolina 23 40.4, 167 South Alabama 6 16.2
91% 87 Memphis 34 40.5, 176 South Florida 33 23.5
89% 44 Louisiana - Lafayette 27 42.1, 129 Arkansas State 20 26.0
87% 103 Fresno State 40 34.7, 181 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 21.8
86% 50 Appalachian State 38 37.4, 148 Texas State - San Marc 17 20.0
85% 78 Mississippi State 24 29.2, 162 Vanderbilt 17 12.9
85% 16 Cincinnati 38 41.0, 77 Houston 10 21.7
84% 42 Texas Christian 34 38.0, 84 Texas Tech 18 24.9
83% 65 Florida Atlantic 10 31.0, 154 Western Kentucky 6 15.2
82% 143 Georgia State 52 40.6, 237 Northeast Louisiana 34 25.9
82% 15 Texas 17 40.9, 37 West Virginia 13 28.4
80% 26 Minnesota 41 39.9, 100 Illinois 14 26.6
71% 82 Tulane 38 42.2, 163 East Carolina 21 29.7
67% 102 Hawaii 39 43.2, 193 New Mexico 33 26.5
67% 21 Iowa 49 23.5, 56 Michigan State 7 11.5
66% 98 Western Michigan 58 44.3, 247 Akron 13 21.1
66% 58 Boston College 16 31.7, 135 Syracuse 13 24.5
66% 30 North Carolina 56 34.3, 55 Duke 24 29.5
66% 24 Miami - Florida 44 33.2, 59 North Carolina State 41 26.3
65% 130 Toledo 38 48.0, 231 Bowling Green 3 27.5
65% 71 Southern Methodist 47 37.2, 136 Temple 23 32.1
65% 8 Oregon 35 43.8, 61 Stanford 14 23.0
64% 35 Iowa State 38 28.7, 39 Baylor 31 24.5
63% 117 Georgia Southern 20 24.6, 97 Troy State 13 21.7
63% 31 Southern California 28 40.3, 45 Arizona State 27 31.4
62% 52 Arkansas 24 30.1, 51 Tennessee 13 28.3
62% 34 Washington State 38 46.1, 69 Oregon State 28 39.4
58% 72 Northwestern 21 26.1, 46 Nebraska 13 24.2
57% 80 Buffalo 49 33.1, 137 Northern Illinois 30 28.8
55% 121 Miami - Ohio 38 36.7, 112 Ball State 31 33.6
55% 90 Colorado 48 36.5, 83 California - Los Angel 42 33.5
51% 214 Southern Mississippi 24 37.9, 220 North Alabama 13 37.6
49% 128 Kent State 27 36.3, 115 Eastern Michigan 23 36.8
46% 29 Oklahoma State 20 24.7, 43 Kansas State 18 25.3
43% 152 Nevada - Reno 34 31.3, 120 Utah State 9 32.3
42% 17 Brigham Young 51 29.7, 36 Boise State 17 31.1
41% 127 Central Michigan 30 35.2, 85 Ohio 27 40.4
40% 131 Colorado State 34 25.8, 94 Wyoming 24 29.7
38% 7 Florida 44 26.3, 4 Georgia 28 28.9
37% 86 Pittsburgh 41 25.0, 96 Florida State 17 27.0
37% 25 Texas A&M 48 28.6, 40 South Carolina 3 30.5
35% 13 Notre Dame 47 24.6, 3 Clemson 40 31.5
33% 124 San Jose State 28 14.1, 79 San Diego State 17 26.8
24% 48 Indiana 38 23.8, 6 Michigan 21 40.4
14% 227 Stephen F. Austin 24 15.8, 147 Eastern Kentucky 6 36.6
13% 101 Liberty 38 26.2, 27 Virginia Tech 35 42.7
4% 107 Maryland 35 16.1, 10 Penn State 19 44.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.90 20 1.09 3 0.88 11 0.96 6 0.88 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 50 35 35.7 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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