prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 82 Florida Atlantic 24 54.5, 247 Massachusetts 2 12.6
97% 1 Alabama 63 45.2, 35 Kentucky 3 14.8
95% 69 Buffalo 42 44.8, 242 Bowling Green 17 14.6
94% 56 Air Force 28 40.6, 185 New Mexico 0 14.5
94% 6 Georgia 31 33.7, 74 Mississippi State 24 9.4
93% 11 Brigham Young 66 52.8, 221 North Alabama 14 13.9
93% 4 Florida 38 47.6, 127 Vanderbilt 17 18.3
93% 2 Ohio State 42 47.1, 25 Indiana 35 23.2
91% 121 Kent State 69 40.9, 253 Akron 35 12.5
90% 16 Auburn 30 34.4, 60 Tennessee 17 15.0
88% 8 Oregon 38 44.4, 73 California - Los Angel 35 22.7
87% 45 Virginia 55 41.2, 212 Abilene Christian 15 15.3
87% 9 Oklahoma 41 41.7, 29 Oklahoma State 13 25.9
83% 63 Louisville 30 34.4, 131 Syracuse 0 22.0
79% 27 Michigan 48 37.0, 101 Rutgers 42 22.3
75% 76 Army 28 23.5, 119 Georgia Southern 27 11.3
72% 48 Boise State 40 40.2, 117 Hawaii 32 30.5
69% 94 Memphis 56 40.4, 179 Stephen F. Austin 14 23.5
67% 108 Texas - San Antonio 23 34.4, 211 Southern Mississippi 20 26.2
67% 50 Minnesota 34 36.2, 53 Purdue 31 28.0
67% 18 Louisiana State 27 40.2, 38 Arkansas 24 31.2
66% 33 Iowa State 45 30.3, 40 Kansas State 0 24.4
66% 15 Washington 44 41.2, 91 Arizona 27 19.2
65% 124 Ball State 31 32.9, 157 Northern Illinois 25 27.0
65% 42 North Carolina State 15 40.1, 66 Liberty 14 34.9
64% 184 Eastern Kentucky 49 37.0, 229 Western Carolina 17 25.6
63% 170 Western Kentucky 38 23.0, 161 Florida International 21 19.5
63% 47 Coastal Carolina 34 27.6, 71 Appalachian State 23 24.5
62% 37 Missouri 17 31.1, 57 South Carolina 10 29.0
62% 14 Iowa 41 25.5, 30 Penn State 21 23.2
59% 87 Western Michigan 52 34.6, 109 Central Michigan 44 33.2
59% 10 Cincinnati 36 32.2, 24 Central Florida 33 31.0
47% 141 Georgia State 31 29.3, 165 South Alabama 14 29.7
46% 70 Oregon State 31 27.3, 54 California 27 28.6
45% 148 Texas State - San Marc 47 36.3, 134 Arkansas State 45 37.0
42% 65 Tulsa 30 30.2, 39 Tulane 24 31.4
37% 200 North Texas 27 33.1, 168 Rice 17 39.0
37% 126 Toledo 45 33.1, 120 Eastern Michigan 28 35.2
37% 80 Pittsburgh 47 26.5, 36 Virginia Tech 14 29.3
35% 154 East Carolina 28 28.5, 151 Temple 3 34.4
35% 115 Nevada - Reno 26 17.5, 62 San Diego State 21 24.2
34% 32 Southern California 33 23.9, 12 Utah 17 37.8
33% 31 Northwestern 17 13.8, 5 Wisconsin 7 29.1
9% 110 Illinois 41 20.8, 43 Nebraska 23 36.8
7% 195 Middle Tennessee State 20 23.1, 102 Troy State 17 41.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.59 20 1.00 3 1.33 4 1.16 12 0.89 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 45 32 33.3 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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