prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 9 Cincinnati 27 31.6, 59 Tulsa 24 12.9
90% 1 Alabama 52 48.4, 8 Florida 46 26.9
89% 2 Ohio State 22 39.5, 26 Northwestern 10 18.7
88% 32 Penn State 56 36.0, 85 Illinois 21 19.0
86% 13 Wisconsin 20 34.9, 46 Minnesota 17 16.8
82% 11 Texas A&M 34 31.4, 49 Tennessee 13 21.6
71% 21 Utah 45 36.3, 43 Washington State 28 23.0
67% 6 Oklahoma 27 37.0, 14 Iowa State 21 30.6
67% 3 Clemson 34 36.6, 5 Notre Dame 10 29.1
66% 31 Louisiana State 53 42.1, 30 Mississippi 48 34.7
55% 33 Arizona State 46 31.1, 53 Oregon State 33 30.6
54% 57 Nebraska 28 29.7, 64 Rutgers 21 29.2
46% 56 Mississippi State 51 23.9, 38 Missouri 32 24.5
44% 82 Army 10 19.2, 58 Air Force 7 20.2
34% 81 San Jose State 34 26.6, 47 Boise State 20 33.3
34% 48 Stanford 48 29.2, 34 California - Los Angel 47 33.4
34% 22 Oregon 31 29.6, 18 Southern California 24 34.5
33% 87 Alabama - Birmingham 22 15.7, 77 Marshall 13 24.2
23% 94 Ball State 38 30.3, 39 Buffalo 28 41.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.92 7 0.65 2 0.68 5 1.15 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 19 12 13.6 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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