prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
67% 141 North Texas 57 58.5, 255 Houston Baptist 31 27.5
65% 47 Southern Methodist 31 48.4, 204 Texas State - San Marc 24 29.8
65% 25 Memphis 37 52.4, 120 Arkansas State 24 33.1
62% 96 Army 42 35.8, 114 Middle Tennessee State 0 27.9
61% 108 Marshall 59 33.9, 163 Eastern Kentucky 0 27.4
59% 128 Alabama - Birmingham 45 32.9, 177 Central Arkansas 35 27.5
47% 231 Texas - El Paso 24 32.4, 228 Stephen F. Austin 14 34.3
38% 177 Central Arkansas 24 30.0, 81 Austin Peay 17 38.5
37% 78 Brigham Young 55 28.0, 35 Navy 3 37.7
36% 194 South Alabama 32 22.0, 105 Southern Mississippi 21 38.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.89 8 0.98 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 10 6 6.2 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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