prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 60 Appalachian State 56 45.9, 183 North Texas 28 22.7
90% 1 Alabama 31 42.9, 8 Notre Dame 14 22.7
79% 14 Texas 55 42.0, 62 Colorado 23 28.6
78% 50 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 35.7, 115 Texas - San Antonio 24 23.0
67% 42 West Virginia 24 20.4, 85 Army 21 13.7
67% 15 Wisconsin 42 30.1, 36 Wake Forest 28 23.0
66% 46 Buffalo 17 31.4, 103 Marshall 10 23.3
66% 11 Iowa State 34 30.3, 23 Oregon 17 24.3
66% 9 Texas A&M 41 35.1, 18 North Carolina 27 30.7
66% 4 Georgia 24 27.9, 10 Cincinnati 21 22.0
65% 109 Georgia Southern 38 30.9, 135 Louisiana Tech 3 26.0
65% 93 Memphis 25 25.7, 147 Florida Atlantic 10 20.4
65% 12 Brigham Young 49 39.8, 26 Central Florida 23 35.2
64% 47 Kentucky 23 26.6, 66 North Carolina State 21 23.1
59% 6 Oklahoma 55 38.5, 5 Florida 20 37.5
54% 43 Mississippi State 28 21.7, 41 Tulsa 26 21.2
39% 31 Oklahoma State 37 26.6, 25 Miami - Florida 34 28.2
37% 134 Georgia State 39 26.2, 149 Western Kentucky 21 28.4
37% 3 Ohio State 49 35.3, 2 Clemson 28 38.6
36% 82 Ball State 34 27.5, 59 San Jose State 13 30.3
36% 24 Northwestern 35 16.5, 16 Auburn 19 21.2
34% 68 Liberty 37 26.4, 33 Coastal Carolina 34 32.3
33% 30 Mississippi 26 33.8, 13 Indiana 20 40.2
28% 94 Nevada - Reno 38 26.5, 39 Tulane 27 36.6
26% 126 Hawaii 28 31.4, 73 Houston 14 40.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.77 17 0.91 4 0.66 0 0.00 2 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 25 16 17.0 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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