12 Jan 2022: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2021 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  5  13  8.8  7.5 Georgia                 
  2  6  13  9.5  6.7 Alabama                 
  3  6  13 10.0  6.2 Ohio State              
  4 13  10  9.0  6.4 Michigan                
  5  7  10  8.7  6.6 Notre Dame              
  6 15   9  8.8  6.3 Utah                    
  7 26   9  9.3  5.8 Oklahoma                
  8 22   9  8.6  6.5 Cincinnati              
  9  9   9  8.5  6.5 Oklahoma State          
 10 14   8  8.1  6.8 Clemson                 
 11 15   8  8.1  6.7 Wisconsin               
 12 18   8  8.5  6.3 Iowa State              
 13 32   7  8.1  6.6 Penn State              
 14 11   7  8.0  6.7 Texas A&M               
 15 17   7  8.1  6.5 Baylor                  
 16 36   7  8.6  6.0 Pittsburgh              
 17 24   7  8.8  5.8 Mississippi             
 18 28   7  9.4  5.2 Wake Forest             
 19 47   7  8.5  6.0 Michigan State          
 20 41   7  9.1  5.4 Texas                   
 21 51   7  9.0  5.4 California - Los Angeles
 22 31   6  8.2  6.2 Auburn                  
 23 36   7  8.6  5.9 Oregon                  
 24 39   6  8.2  6.2 Nebraska                
 25 33   7  9.0  5.4 Tennessee               
 26 21   6  8.2  6.2 North Carolina State    
 27 19   6  8.2  6.1 Kentucky                
 28 46   6  7.8  6.5 Iowa                    
 29 29   6  8.4  6.0 Arkansas                
 30 44   6  8.4  6.0 Purdue                  
 31 28   6  8.1  6.2 Boise State             
 32 25   6  7.9  6.3 Kansas State            
 33 20   6  8.6  5.7 Brigham Young           
 34 35   6  8.5  5.7 Miami - Florida         
 35 22   6  8.4  5.8 Florida                 
 36 27   6  7.9  6.3 Minnesota               
 37 32   5  8.0  6.2 Arizona State           
 38 26   6  8.9  5.2 North Carolina          
 39 28   5  8.0  6.1 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 40 40   5  8.3  5.8 Louisiana State         
 41 36   5  8.3  5.7 Houston                 
 42 20   5  8.2  5.8 Appalachian State       
 43 38   5  7.9  6.0 Air Force               
 44 37   5  8.1  5.8 Mississippi State       
 45 35   5  8.2  5.8 Washington State        
 46 53   5  8.5  5.4 Oregon State            
 47 53   5  8.7  5.2 Western Kentucky        
 48 33   5  8.4  5.5 Louisville              
 49 53   4  8.1  5.7 Fresno State            
 50 47   5  8.8  5.1 Southern Methodist      
 51 25   4  8.4  5.4 Coastal Carolina        
 52 25   4  8.2  5.6 Florida State           
 53 37   4  8.5  5.3 Virginia                
 54 54   4  8.3  5.4 Southern California     
 55 46   4  8.4  5.4 Texas Tech              
 56 43   4  7.5  6.2 San Diego State         
 57 46   4  7.6  6.1 Washington              
 58 25   4  8.2  5.5 Central Florida         
 59 46   4  7.7  6.0 West Virginia           
 60 36   4  8.1  5.6 Liberty                 
 61 53   4  8.5  5.2 Nevada - Reno           
 62 32   4  7.7  5.9 Army                    
 63 69   4  8.4  5.3 Maryland                
 64 36   3  7.4  6.2 California              
 65 42   3  7.9  5.7 Marshall                
 66 51   3  7.8  5.8 Tulsa                   
 67 52   3  8.3  5.2 Texas Christian         
 68 45   3  8.4  5.1 Missouri                
 69 52   3  8.0  5.5 Utah State              
 70 54   3  8.1  5.3 East Carolina           
 71 41   3  7.9  5.5 Toledo                  
 72 51   3  8.3  5.0 Western Michigan        
 73 46   3  7.8  5.6 Alabama - Birmingham    
 74 35   3  7.8  5.6 Virginia Tech           
 75 29   3  7.5  5.8 Boston College          
 76 40   2  7.5  5.8 South Carolina          
 77 69   2  7.4  5.9 Illinois                
 78 56   2  8.1  5.1 Texas - San Antonio     
 79 38   2  7.6  5.7 Syracuse                
 80 53   2  7.9  5.3 Central Michigan        
 81 66   2  7.6  5.6 Indiana                 
 82 61   2  7.4  5.7 Colorado                
 83 37   2  7.9  5.2 Memphis                 
 84 56   2  7.9  5.2 Tulane                  
 85 56   2  7.6  5.5 Miami - Ohio            
 86 60   2  7.6  5.5 Stanford                
 87 45   1  7.4  5.6 Wyoming                 
 88 46   1  7.8  5.2 Georgia State           
 89 68   1  7.2  5.7 Rutgers                 
 90 65   1  7.3  5.7 Northwestern            
 91 55   1  7.2  5.7 Navy                    
 92 53   1  7.7  5.1 Colorado State          
 93 66   1  7.8  5.0 Hawaii                  
 94 58   1  8.0  4.8 Eastern Michigan        
 95 41   1  7.6  5.2 Georgia Tech            
 96 41   0  7.7  5.0 Buffalo                 
 97 42   0  7.1  5.6 Florida Atlantic        
 98 53   0  7.5  5.1 Middle Tennessee State  
 99 54   0  7.5  5.2 Ball State              
100 53   0  7.9  4.7 Northern Illinois       
101 61   0  8.2  4.4 Kent State              
102 55   0  7.3  5.3 Arizona                 
103 54   0  7.6  4.9 South Florida           
104 47   0  7.4  5.1 Old Dominion            
105 54   0  7.7  4.7 North Texas             
106 36   0  7.1  5.2 Troy State              
107 62   0  7.1  5.2 Texas - El Paso         
108 35   0  7.3  4.9 Ohio                    
109 39   0  7.6  4.6 Louisiana Tech          
110 47  -1  7.5  4.6 Duke                    
111 61  -1  7.3  4.8 Nevada - Las Vegas      
112 56  -1  6.7  5.5 San Jose State          
113 56  -1  7.6  4.4 Kansas                  
114 40  -1  6.9  5.1 South Alabama           
115 30  -1  6.9  5.1 Georgia Southern        
116 48  -1  7.0  5.0 Vanderbilt              
117 41  -2  7.7  4.1 Arkansas State          
118 37  -2  7.3  4.6 North Carolina - Charlot
119 42  -2  7.1  4.6 Texas State - San Marcos
120 42  -2  7.2  4.5 Northeast Louisiana     
121 44  -2  6.5  5.2 New Mexico              
122 36  -3  6.8  4.9 Rice                    
123 34  -3  6.7  4.9 Southern Mississippi    
124 40  -3  6.8  4.7 Bowling Green           
125 39  -4  7.4  3.9 New Mexico State        
126 31  -4  6.7  4.6 Temple                  
127 25  -5  6.9  4.2 Florida International   
128 31  -5  6.8  4.3 Akron                   
129 28  -5  6.7  4.3 Connecticut             
130 20  -7  6.7  3.8 Massachusetts           

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  9   8  8.1  6.8 North Dakota State      
  2 12   8  8.6  6.3 James Madison           
  3 25   6  8.3  5.9 South Dakota State      
  4 29   5  9.1  4.8 Eastern Washington      
  5 34   4  7.9  6.0 Villanova               
  6 38   4  7.6  6.2 Montana State           
  7 41   4  7.1  6.7 Northern Iowa           
  8 54   4  7.5  6.2 Dartmouth               
  9 54   4  7.9  5.8 Princeton               
 10 51   4  7.7  5.9 Harvard                 
 11 46   3  7.6  6.0 Weber State             
 12 48   3  7.7  5.7 Kennesaw State          
 13 42   3  7.4  6.0 Montana                 
 14 32   3  8.0  5.4 Southern Illinois       
 15 40   2  7.8  5.6 South Dakota            
 16 44   2  8.1  5.2 Yale                    
 17 36   2  8.2  5.0 Missouri State          
 18 64   2  8.0  5.2 Sam Houston State       
 19 53   2  7.5  5.6 Holy Cross              
 20 50   2  7.5  5.6 Sacramento State        
 21 50   1  8.7  4.3 Southeast Louisiana     
 22 36   1  7.2  5.8 North Dakota            
 23 30   1  7.4  5.5 Elon                    
 24 36   1  7.2  5.6 William & Mary          
 25 57   1  6.9  6.0 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 26 33   1  7.5  5.3 East Tennessee State    
 27 49   0  7.3  5.5 Richmond                
 28 46   0  7.9  4.9 Monmouth                
 29 57   0  7.5  5.3 California - Davis      
 30 42   0  7.5  5.2 Maine                   
 31 40   0  7.3  5.3 Tennessee - Martin      
 32 37   0  6.9  5.6 Furman                  
 33 44   0  6.9  5.6 Stony Brook             
 34 52   0  6.8  5.8 Illinois State          
 35 51   0  7.7  4.8 Youngstown State        
 36 60   0  7.9  4.5 Incarnate Word          
 37 63   0  7.2  5.3 Stephen F. Austin       
 38 51   0  7.3  5.2 Towson                  
 39 52   0  7.4  5.0 Nicholls State          
 40 45   0  7.4  4.9 Austin Peay             
 41 27   0  8.3  4.0 Samford                 
 42 44   0  6.8  5.5 Delaware                
 43 37   0  7.2  5.2 Mercer                  
 44 28   0  7.4  4.9 Rhode Island            
 45 51   0  7.0  5.2 Albany                  
 46 28   0  7.5  4.7 Portland State          
 47 59  -1  7.0  5.2 Columbia                
 48 40  -1  7.9  4.3 Fordham                 
 49 42  -1  7.2  5.0 Eastern Kentucky        
 50 56  -1  6.9  5.3 North Carolina A&T      
 51 42  -1  7.7  4.4 Virginia Military       
 52 58  -1  7.6  4.4 Central Arkansas        
 53 51  -1  6.7  5.4 Pennsylvania            
 54 61  -1  6.7  5.4 New Hampshire           
 55 32  -1  7.6  4.3 Western Illinois        
 56 18  -1  6.9  5.0 Charleston Southern     
 57 72  -1  6.6  5.4 Florida A&M             
 58 29  -1  7.1  4.9 Campbell                
 59 33  -2  7.1  4.7 Idaho                   
 60 56  -2  7.0  4.9 Jacksonville State      
 61 64  -2  6.9  4.9 Duquesne                
 62 69  -2  6.2  5.7 Sacred Heart            
 63 30  -2  6.7  5.1 Indiana State           
 64 27  -2  7.9  3.9 Western Carolina        
 65 33  -2  7.2  4.6 Southeast Missouri State
 66 24  -2  7.4  4.3 Northern Arizona        
 67 45  -2  7.3  4.4 North Alabama           
 68 54  -2  6.7  5.0 South Carolina State    
 69 47  -2  6.9  4.9 Wofford                 
 70 90  -2  7.5  4.1 Davidson                
 71 76  -2  6.5  5.3 Jackson State           
 72 61  -2  6.5  5.2 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 73 28  -3  7.8  3.8 Brown                   
 74 73  -3  6.4  5.3 McNeese State           
 75 27  -3  7.2  4.4 Gardner - Webb          
 76 40  -3  6.6  5.1 Cornell                 
 77 28  -3  7.1  4.4 Hampton                 
 78 54  -3  6.8  4.7 Bryant                  
 79 42  -3  7.1  4.3 Norfolk State           
 80 46  -4  7.6  3.8 Alabama A&M             
 81 47  -3  6.8  4.5 Prairie View            
 82 22  -4  6.8  4.5 The Citadel             
 83 89  -4  6.6  4.8 San Diego               
 84 43  -4  6.4  5.0 Colgate                 
 85 41  -4  6.6  4.7 Central Connecticut     
 86 61  -4  6.6  4.7 Abilene Christian       
 87 24  -4  6.1  5.2 Lafayette               
 88 59  -4  6.5  4.7 Alcorn State            
 89 16  -4  6.6  4.5 Robert Morris           
 90 15  -4  6.6  4.6 Idaho State             
 91 72  -5  7.1  3.9 Dayton                  
 92 51  -5  6.8  4.2 Southern                
 93 23  -5  6.5  4.7 Murray State            
 94 38  -5  6.7  4.3 California Poly         
 95 40  -5  6.6  4.4 North Carolina Central  
 96 40  -5  7.0  4.0 Bethune - Cookman       
 97 29  -5  6.5  4.5 Tennessee State         
 98 47  -5  6.7  4.2 Southern Utah           
 99 74  -5  6.6  4.2 Valparaiso              
100 26  -5  6.1  4.8 Northern Colorado       
101 **  -6  6.8  4.0 Saint Thomas - Minnesota
102 25  -5  6.3  4.5 Georgetown              
103 33  -6  6.7  4.1 Howard                  
104 **  -6  7.0  3.7 Tarleton State          
105 57  -6  6.0  4.9 Grambling               
106 29  -6  5.7  5.2 Lehigh                  
107 21  -6  6.3  4.3 Tennessee Tech          
108 **  -6  6.9  3.7 Dixie State             
109 38  -6  6.3  4.3 Delaware State          
110 **  -7  8.2  2.1 Merrimack               
111 69  -7  6.7  3.8 Morehead State          
112 25  -6  5.8  4.8 Eastern Illinois        
113 25  -6  6.1  4.5 Alabama State           
114 29  -7  7.1  3.3 Texas Southern          
115 39  -7  6.2  4.3 Northwestern State      
116 74  -7  5.9  4.5 Marist                  
117 16  -7  5.9  4.5 Morgan State            
118 35  -7  6.1  4.2 Mississippi Valley State
119 71  -7  5.3  5.1 Drake                   
120 77  -8  6.3  3.8 Long Island             
121 10  -9  6.2  3.8 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
122 33  -9  5.9  4.1 Lamar                   
123 12  -9  5.7  4.3 Bucknell                
124 43  -9  5.7  4.1 Stetson                 
125  9 -10  5.5  4.2 Wagner                  
126 33 -10  5.8  3.9 Butler                  
127  8 -12  6.0  2.9 Houston Baptist         
128  8 -13  6.4  2.4 Presbyterian            

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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