prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 4 Oklahoma 76 66.4, 231 Western Carolina 0 13.0
86% 1 Alabama 48 70.2, 196 Mercer 14 12.3
84% 58 Purdue 49 44.5, 240 Connecticut 0 15.9
78% 53 Boston College 45 55.3, 249 Massachusetts 28 17.5
78% 47 Baylor 66 58.8, 257 Texas Southern 7 14.2
78% 26 North Dakota State 64 54.7, 251 Valparaiso 0 7.8
74% 77 Maryland 62 53.8, 255 Howard 0 18.9
74% 40 Virginia 42 44.0, 137 Illinois 14 21.8
74% 3 Clemson 49 50.3, 168 South Carolina State 3 10.5
73% 30 Central Florida 63 54.1, 214 Bethune - Cookman 14 20.9
72% 16 Auburn 62 51.3, 229 Alabama State 0 10.7
71% 38 West Virginia 66 50.3, 254 Long Island 0 11.8
70% 88 Villanova 55 44.7, 235 Bucknell 3 13.8
70% 37 Wake Forest 41 49.4, 215 Norfolk State 16 20.0
70% 9 Florida 42 48.5, 163 South Florida 20 19.5
69% 56 Southern Methodist 35 57.4, 181 North Texas 12 33.2
69% 48 Tulane 69 46.1, 238 Morgan State 20 14.8
69% 36 Fresno State 63 40.9, 170 California Poly 10 17.4
69% 27 Arizona State 37 48.9, 182 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 17.2
69% 24 North Carolina 59 50.0, 132 Georgia State 17 24.7
69% 14 Cincinnati 42 48.3, 193 Murray State 7 14.2
68% 66 Montana 42 42.5, 207 Western Illinois 7 19.7
68% 54 Virginia Tech 35 45.3, 178 Middle Tennessee State 14 21.0
68% 46 Washington State 44 48.5, 172 Portland State 24 26.4
68% 42 Coastal Carolina 49 43.7, 166 Kansas 22 19.7
68% 34 Northwestern 24 38.1, 197 Indiana State 6 14.4
68% 25 Mississippi 54 46.6, 180 Austin Peay 17 20.6
68% 19 Louisiana State 34 49.8, 185 McNeese State 7 18.0
68% 17 James Madison 55 47.1, 112 Maine 7 19.6
68% 12 Wisconsin 34 41.6, 114 Eastern Michigan 7 14.5
68% 6 Notre Dame 32 45.4, 95 Toledo 29 18.3
68% 5 Georgia 56 38.2, 86 Alabama - Birmingham 7 11.3
67% 173 Dayton 17 43.0, 234 Eastern Illinois 10 27.7
67% 142 Richmond 31 34.4, 225 Lehigh 3 16.0
67% 110 Furman 26 39.5, 216 Tennessee Tech 0 22.8
67% 93 Nevada - Reno 49 41.3, 199 Idaho State 10 23.0
67% 90 Weber State 41 61.0, 248 Dixie State 3 37.4
67% 76 Texas Tech 28 40.6, 192 Stephen F. Austin 22 19.1
67% 74 Marshall 44 28.8, 202 North Carolina Central 10 10.7
67% 59 Oregon State 45 42.3, 120 Hawaii 27 30.2
67% 50 Louisville 30 41.0, 176 Eastern Kentucky 3 20.9
67% 35 Minnesota 31 40.6, 131 Miami - Ohio 26 20.7
67% 23 Indiana 56 43.1, 156 Idaho 14 18.1
67% 8 Texas A&M 10 38.4, 82 Colorado 7 19.9
66% 223 Alcorn State 13 35.0, 228 Northwestern State 10 26.0
66% 174 South Alabama 22 31.5, 250 Bowling Green 19 17.3
66% 167 New Mexico 34 31.6, 226 New Mexico State 25 21.0
66% 158 Temple 45 33.2, 243 Akron 24 18.8
66% 129 Central Connecticut 21 38.3, 241 Wagner 19 20.3
66% 126 Texas - San Antonio 54 42.0, 245 Lamar 0 22.7
66% 118 Kent State 60 47.3, 217 Virginia Military 10 34.3
66% 78 Montana State 45 38.0, 201 Drake 7 20.0
66% 55 Louisiana - Lafayette 27 37.9, 165 Nicholls State 24 21.6
66% 44 Boise State 54 32.1, 83 Texas - El Paso 13 20.5
66% 20 Penn State 44 37.7, 69 Ball State 13 22.3
65% 150 William & Mary 24 29.6, 218 Lafayette 3 17.7
65% 148 South Dakota 34 43.4, 169 Northern Arizona 7 33.5
65% 147 North Carolina - Charl 38 38.7, 232 Gardner - Webb 10 25.6
65% 138 Delaware 27 31.5, 188 Saint Francis - Pennsy 10 18.9
65% 115 Elon 24 33.4, 208 Campbell 23 19.9
65% 108 Central Michigan 45 39.9, 212 Robert Morris 0 26.5
65% 65 Army 38 30.6, 139 Western Kentucky 35 15.6
65% 64 Air Force 23 30.3, 159 Navy 3 16.6
65% 33 Texas Christian 34 29.8, 71 California 32 16.3
65% 28 Oklahoma State 28 32.3, 60 Tulsa 23 19.9
64% 200 Georgetown 20 34.8, 247 Delaware State 14 21.8
64% 135 Stony Brook 24 26.7, 211 Colgate 3 17.2
64% 81 South Carolina 20 37.1, 127 East Carolina 17 29.9
64% 32 Miami - Florida 25 32.3, 52 Appalachian State 23 22.8
63% 125 Monmouth 26 39.9, 205 Fordham 23 33.2
63% 96 Wyoming 50 26.6, 154 Northern Illinois 43 19.5
63% 92 Houston 44 31.3, 146 Rice 7 24.1
63% 73 Michigan State 42 32.8, 128 Youngstown State 14 26.5
63% 72 San Diego State 38 26.5, 122 Arizona 14 20.1
63% 63 Kansas State 31 32.5, 119 Southern Illinois 23 25.1
63% 29 Michigan 31 31.1, 31 Washington 10 25.5
62% 140 Tennessee - Martin 33 40.2, 162 Samford 27 34.6
62% 91 Memphis 55 39.4, 124 Arkansas State 50 34.6
62% 45 Mississippi State 24 30.3, 62 North Carolina State 10 24.8
60% 161 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 32.7, 210 North Alabama 0 28.2
59% 13 Brigham Young 26 28.8, 18 Utah 17 24.9
57% 105 Northern Iowa 34 23.1, 102 Sacramento State 16 19.6
57% 68 Liberty 21 32.5, 106 Troy State 13 29.6
57% 39 Kentucky 35 28.6, 41 Missouri 28 25.4
56% 171 Sam Houston State 52 29.7, 144 Southeast Missouri Sta 14 26.8
54% 136 Louisiana Tech 45 36.3, 141 Southeast Louisiana 42 34.7
53% 203 Old Dominion 47 31.3, 221 Hampton 7 29.9
52% 80 Rutgers 17 29.5, 109 Syracuse 7 28.7
50% 151 Utah State 48 28.6, 145 North Dakota 24 28.5
50% 117 New Hampshire 26 24.1, 87 Towson 14 24.0
49% 49 Pittsburgh 41 25.4, 57 Tennessee 34 25.8
49% 7 Iowa 27 24.0, 15 Iowa State 17 24.3
48% 134 Florida Atlantic 38 21.3, 99 Georgia Southern 6 22.4
48% 101 Duke 45 31.8, 98 North Carolina A&T 17 32.7
45% 194 Charleston Southern 38 27.1, 191 The Citadel 21 29.5
44% 100 California - Davis 53 31.3, 133 San Diego 7 33.8
41% 104 Western Michigan 28 27.6, 121 Illinois State 0 31.5
38% 190 Southern Mississippi 37 26.9, 183 Grambling 0 31.9
37% 239 Jackson State 38 26.7, 219 Tennessee State 16 32.2
37% 233 Bryant 17 24.3, 184 Sacred Heart 6 30.2
37% 204 Missouri State 43 27.8, 123 Central Arkansas 34 33.6
37% 152 Vanderbilt 24 26.9, 130 Colorado State 21 33.7
37% 149 Texas State - San Marc 23 29.7, 157 Florida International 17 36.5
37% 111 Georgia Tech 45 30.0, 89 Kennesaw State 17 36.5
36% 227 Northern Colorado 45 31.0, 177 Houston Baptist 13 40.4
36% 220 Incarnate Word 40 36.5, 160 Prairie View 9 44.8
36% 153 Rhode Island 16 28.0, 116 Albany 14 36.1
36% 97 Nebraska 28 28.7, 43 Buffalo 3 34.0
35% 206 Duquesne 28 22.0, 107 Ohio 26 34.4
35% 61 Arkansas 40 31.0, 11 Texas 21 42.2
34% 164 Jacksonville State 20 21.7, 85 Florida State 17 37.3
34% 51 Stanford 42 25.4, 21 Southern California 28 38.9
32% 22 Oregon 35 24.7, 2 Ohio State 28 48.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
18 1.12 83 1.23 9 1.34 3 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113 90 73.7 1.22
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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