prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 6 Iowa 30 46.7, 117 Kent State 7 14.0
96% 56 Army 52 45.5, 256 Connecticut 21 4.4
95% 14 Texas 58 47.4, 166 Rice 0 11.6
94% 3 Clemson 14 46.0, 106 Georgia Tech 8 11.2
94% 2 Ohio State 41 46.2, 68 Tulsa 20 16.1
93% 119 Eastern Michigan 42 46.5, 243 Massachusetts 28 25.2
92% 70 Tennessee 56 44.2, 228 Tennessee Tech 0 15.1
92% 26 Michigan 63 45.7, 149 Northern Illinois 10 17.7
92% 4 Georgia 40 40.4, 92 South Carolina 13 9.5
91% 187 Sacred Heart 21 32.1, 242 Morgan State 7 12.4
91% 18 Texas A&M 34 43.7, 168 New Mexico 0 11.3
89% 20 Iowa State 48 43.8, 184 Nevada - Las Vegas 3 14.5
87% 74 Liberty 45 37.2, 193 Old Dominion 17 16.0
85% 60 Montana State 52 38.4, 163 San Diego 10 19.2
85% 44 Missouri 59 40.2, 164 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 21.2
85% 19 North Dakota State 35 33.4, 93 Towson 7 18.5
83% 85 Texas Tech 54 38.3, 173 Florida International 21 21.5
82% 64 Louisiana - Lafayette 49 34.9, 127 Ohio 14 21.9
82% 45 Arkansas 45 37.1, 125 Georgia Southern 10 19.3
82% 22 Louisiana State 49 43.0, 100 Central Michigan 21 21.2
81% 12 Notre Dame 27 38.6, 52 Purdue 13 19.6
80% 41 Kentucky 28 32.9, 162 Tennessee - Chattanoog 23 12.9
79% 159 Samford 42 43.3, 232 Western Carolina 37 30.5
79% 67 Villanova 34 38.6, 147 Richmond 27 21.2
78% 1 Alabama 31 43.3, 7 Florida 29 29.0
77% 5 Oklahoma 23 38.2, 34 Nebraska 16 17.4
76% 46 Baylor 45 35.5, 160 Kansas 7 19.0
76% 17 Oregon 48 38.0, 126 Stony Brook 7 17.1
75% 90 Houston 45 36.7, 200 Grambling 0 21.6
75% 35 Washington 52 43.2, 116 Arkansas State 3 23.8
74% 137 Jacksonville State 27 39.7, 222 North Alabama 24 19.3
74% 105 New Hampshire 19 27.2, 221 Lafayette 13 10.4
73% 174 Austin Peay 59 40.3, 250 Morehead State 35 21.7
73% 54 Boston College 28 38.0, 167 Temple 3 22.4
72% 121 Miami - Ohio 42 44.0, 253 Long Island 7 19.1
72% 78 Princeton 32 42.2, 230 Lehigh 0 15.3
70% 83 Eastern Washington 62 44.5, 210 Western Illinois 56 28.7
69% 73 California - Davis 60 67.1, 248 Dixie State 27 30.6
68% 152 Prairie View 37 49.7, 197 Houston Baptist 27 32.5
68% 107 Texas - San Antonio 27 37.8, 179 Middle Tennessee State 13 23.0
68% 97 Alabama - Birmingham 40 38.5, 185 North Texas 6 27.5
68% 66 Dartmouth 28 47.8, 251 Valparaiso 18 11.2
68% 50 Appalachian State 44 31.0, 118 Elon 10 19.6
68% 24 North Carolina 59 37.0, 38 Virginia 39 29.0
68% 10 James Madison 37 33.7, 75 Weber State 24 18.0
67% 199 Stephen F. Austin 58 31.4, 258 Mississippi Valley Sta 13 13.4
67% 195 Saint Francis - Pennsy 39 25.6, 235 Wagner 24 14.7
67% 192 East Tennessee State 38 35.0, 247 Delaware State 6 17.0
67% 155 Pennsylvania 30 35.4, 241 Bucknell 6 18.9
67% 148 William & Mary 27 24.1, 218 Colgate 7 17.0
67% 140 Tennessee - Martin 35 37.7, 233 Northwestern State 10 23.1
67% 134 Central Arkansas 45 45.5, 226 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 23 28.7
67% 111 Troy State 21 32.3, 191 Southern Mississippi 9 23.7
67% 109 Florida Atlantic 45 33.6, 207 Fordham 14 17.2
67% 96 Northern Iowa 44 63.7, 239 Saint Thomas - Minneso 3 35.5
67% 84 San Jose State 17 32.3, 128 Hawaii 13 23.1
67% 72 California 42 26.8, 114 Sacramento State 30 16.7
67% 71 Stanford 41 27.7, 154 Vanderbilt 23 19.9
67% 62 Southern Methodist 39 40.2, 133 Louisiana Tech 37 32.5
67% 61 Oregon State 42 42.8, 158 Idaho 0 27.1
67% 40 West Virginia 27 30.1, 49 Virginia Tech 21 23.3
67% 39 Wake Forest 35 40.2, 82 Florida State 14 32.4
66% 220 Hampton 48 40.1, 254 Howard 32 27.6
66% 205 Campbell 72 33.6, 255 Presbyterian 0 18.0
66% 170 South Alabama 28 18.6, 252 Alcorn State 21 9.1
66% 79 Maryland 20 37.1, 104 Illinois 17 31.4
66% 77 Kansas State 38 29.8, 86 Nevada - Reno 17 24.7
66% 37 Minnesota 30 31.2, 89 Colorado 0 25.8
65% 122 Southern Utah 40 60.8, 244 Tarleton State 35 42.0
65% 112 Southern Illinois 55 43.7, 161 Dayton 3 34.7
65% 63 North Carolina State 45 28.0, 101 Furman 7 22.4
65% 27 Mississippi 61 42.3, 42 Tulane 21 36.9
65% 15 Brigham Young 27 30.6, 28 Arizona State 17 21.9
64% 190 Columbia 37 39.1, 237 Marist 14 24.6
64% 151 North Dakota 38 28.9, 206 Drake 0 21.9
64% 142 South Dakota 48 32.9, 172 California Poly 14 30.2
64% 110 Harvard 44 30.0, 201 Georgetown 9 18.6
64% 76 Rutgers 45 30.7, 132 Delaware 13 25.6
64% 36 Coastal Carolina 28 36.1, 65 Buffalo 25 31.7
64% 25 Southern California 45 34.8, 53 Washington State 14 31.3
63% 135 Monmouth 41 32.9, 203 Charleston Southern 14 27.5
63% 115 Illinois State 31 12.1, 208 Eastern Illinois 24 8.2
63% 99 Duke 30 29.0, 81 Northwestern 23 24.0
63% 98 Wyoming 45 27.5, 91 Ball State 12 24.8
63% 9 Cincinnati 38 27.8, 23 Indiana 24 24.2
58% 113 Syracuse 62 24.5, 120 Albany 24 23.3
53% 141 Indiana State 23 35.9, 178 Eastern Kentucky 21 35.3
52% 16 Penn State 28 28.3, 11 Auburn 20 27.9
50% 169 South Florida 38 30.9, 183 Florida A&M 17 30.9
50% 157 Rhode Island 45 38.4, 188 Brown 24 38.3
50% 87 Memphis 31 29.9, 51 Mississippi State 29 30.0
46% 88 Kennesaw State 31 30.3, 95 Wofford 10 31.9
45% 189 Incarnate Word 42 33.6, 144 Texas State - San Marc 34 34.5
43% 219 Northeast Louisiana 12 29.8, 229 Jackson State 7 31.2
41% 150 Georgia State 20 32.8, 146 North Carolina - Charl 9 34.0
37% 223 Alabama A&M 30 29.0, 214 Bethune - Cookman 27 34.0
37% 194 McNeese State 31 25.5, 182 Southern 24 32.1
36% 33 Oklahoma State 21 28.0, 43 Boise State 20 32.3
35% 240 Akron 35 24.3, 231 Bryant 14 30.5
35% 145 Holy Cross 20 29.0, 80 Yale 17 43.3
35% 143 Southeast Louisiana 56 31.7, 124 Central Connecticut 10 41.9
35% 59 Louisville 42 35.6, 29 Central Florida 35 39.2
34% 245 Lamar 17 19.3, 202 Northern Colorado 10 31.8
34% 212 Virginia Military 31 25.2, 171 Cornell 21 39.8
34% 69 San Diego State 33 12.8, 21 Utah 31 23.9
33% 246 Bowling Green 27 20.0, 196 Murray State 10 34.8
31% 224 New Mexico State 43 18.9, 177 South Carolina State 35 30.5
30% 131 Utah State 49 18.4, 58 Air Force 45 33.6
28% 181 Northern Arizona 21 28.0, 123 Arizona 19 38.3
22% 102 Michigan State 38 15.1, 32 Miami - Florida 17 38.9
20% 30 Fresno State 40 21.1, 8 California - Los Angel 37 36.0
16% 139 Colorado State 22 28.3, 94 Toledo 6 42.3
16% 138 East Carolina 42 15.8, 57 Marshall 38 36.9
16% 108 Western Michigan 44 24.9, 47 Pittsburgh 41 40.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.74 60 1.22 18 1.12 15 0.88 11 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 114 89 81.1 1.10
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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