prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 54 Montana 39 45.0, 195 California Poly 7 17.7
97% 43 Coastal Carolina 53 57.9, 237 Massachusetts 3 15.7
97% 22 Brigham Young 35 44.1, 167 South Florida 27 9.4
97% 17 Auburn 34 49.2, 161 Georgia State 24 13.0
97% 8 Oregon 41 45.6, 133 Arizona 19 13.1
97% 3 Ohio State 59 66.3, 238 Akron 7 6.6
97% 1 Alabama 63 62.2, 193 Southern Mississippi 14 2.8
96% 2 Georgia 62 42.2, 151 Vanderbilt 0 5.4
95% 84 Wyoming 24 42.2, 242 Connecticut 22 10.0
95% 23 Fresno State 38 50.1, 202 Nevada - Las Vegas 30 15.2
94% 5 Iowa 24 42.3, 126 Colorado State 14 11.6
92% 47 Montana State 30 42.3, 166 Portland State 17 20.5
90% 118 Louisiana Tech 24 45.1, 200 North Texas 17 28.0
90% 71 Houston 28 38.4, 171 Navy 20 18.0
90% 37 Arizona State 35 30.5, 103 Colorado 13 14.9
89% 27 Utah 24 37.8, 91 Washington State 13 19.8
89% 10 Texas 70 44.7, 55 Texas Tech 35 28.1
88% 9 Florida 38 41.6, 78 Tennessee 14 21.2
87% 95 Duke 52 42.6, 176 Kansas 33 22.4
87% 46 Purdue 13 39.9, 124 Illinois 9 21.4
85% 74 Buffalo 35 38.5, 183 Old Dominion 34 20.9
84% 77 Maryland 37 37.7, 109 Kent State 16 25.4
84% 6 Oklahoma 16 40.7, 42 West Virginia 13 21.9
83% 61 Northwestern 35 34.6, 153 Ohio 6 14.2
81% 107 Central Michigan 31 37.5, 180 Florida International 27 22.1
79% 125 Sacramento State 23 32.1, 210 Idaho State 21 20.0
78% 51 Virginia Tech 21 33.5, 139 Richmond 10 19.2
78% 14 Michigan 20 38.8, 48 Rutgers 13 22.6
77% 53 Louisiana - Lafayette 28 32.3, 148 Georgia Southern 20 19.7
75% 75 Dartmouth 41 34.6, 198 Sacred Heart 3 8.2
75% 68 Tulsa 41 44.3, 154 Arkansas State 34 25.0
74% 131 Hawaii 41 34.6, 209 New Mexico State 21 24.9
73% 185 Duquesne 56 41.0, 218 Houston Baptist 7 25.8
72% 102 North Carolina A&T 37 47.4, 175 North Carolina Central 14 28.7
72% 56 Miami - Florida 69 37.2, 162 Central Connecticut 0 20.0
71% 28 Washington 31 27.0, 81 California 24 14.0
68% 214 Robert Morris 22 43.7, 253 Howard 16 25.0
68% 212 Eastern Illinois 28 27.5, 243 Tennessee Tech 14 18.1
68% 192 Rice 48 40.8, 257 Texas Southern 34 19.0
68% 190 Southeast Missouri Sta 47 36.3, 225 Tennessee State 14 28.0
68% 147 Nicholls State 31 35.3, 207 North Alabama 14 22.9
68% 121 Eastern Michigan 59 34.7, 150 Texas State - San Marc 21 27.5
68% 85 Princeton 63 48.9, 236 Stetson 0 15.0
67% 228 Colgate 30 20.3, 247 Lehigh 3 11.3
67% 196 Dayton 63 42.6, 256 Presbyterian 43 20.3
67% 152 North Carolina - Charl 42 32.2, 165 Middle Tennessee State 39 24.0
67% 72 Army 23 32.9, 111 Miami - Ohio 10 23.4
67% 20 Louisiana State 28 33.2, 62 Mississippi State 25 26.0
67% 16 Penn State 38 35.7, 70 Villanova 17 24.4
66% 204 Southern 38 36.9, 258 Mississippi Valley Sta 25 17.3
66% 172 Temple 41 28.8, 233 Wagner 7 22.3
66% 112 Harvard 49 46.8, 194 Brown 17 25.0
66% 88 Southern Illinois 35 28.2, 122 Illinois State 17 20.1
66% 87 Yale 23 38.2, 170 Cornell 17 20.8
66% 82 Air Force 31 25.7, 97 Florida Atlantic 7 17.8
66% 73 South Dakota State 44 35.2, 157 Indiana State 0 21.4
66% 41 Boise State 27 37.3, 106 Utah State 3 29.4
66% 35 Oklahoma State 31 27.5, 40 Kansas State 20 22.7
66% 30 Indiana 33 32.7, 137 Western Kentucky 31 19.8
65% 182 Columbia 35 25.7, 220 Georgetown 24 14.7
65% 110 East Carolina 31 34.2, 189 Charleston Southern 28 27.2
65% 86 Eastern Washington 50 38.4, 146 Southern Utah 21 27.7
65% 59 Pittsburgh 77 26.9, 113 New Hampshire 7 20.0
65% 44 Appalachian State 31 26.7, 69 Marshall 30 20.1
64% 229 Gardner - Webb 52 33.8, 226 Western Carolina 34 30.1
64% 67 Boston College 41 33.3, 65 Missouri 34 29.9
64% 60 San Diego State 48 25.0, 98 Towson 21 19.8
63% 213 Northern Colorado 17 28.4, 187 Northern Arizona 10 25.9
63% 205 Abilene Christian 56 29.7, 246 Lamar 0 22.6
63% 177 Prairie View 24 26.3, 223 Grambling 10 22.3
63% 168 Incarnate Word 31 31.7, 181 McNeese State 0 28.7
63% 149 Texas - El Paso 20 25.5, 163 New Mexico 13 22.2
63% 63 Kentucky 16 24.7, 83 South Carolina 10 22.3
63% 25 California - Los Angel 35 34.6, 50 Stanford 24 31.0
62% 179 Eastern Kentucky 35 27.4, 159 Austin Peay 27 25.4
62% 34 Michigan State 23 21.9, 39 Nebraska 20 18.9
61% 244 Saint Thomas - Minneso 36 56.9, 250 Butler 0 50.4
61% 115 Toledo 22 31.0, 119 Ball State 12 29.3
56% 96 Western Michigan 23 32.5, 101 San Jose State 3 31.6
52% 231 Alcorn State 39 20.5, 230 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 38 19.7
52% 203 Davidson 28 33.3, 188 San Diego 16 32.8
50% 232 Alabama State 38 28.1, 216 Bethune - Cookman 24 28.1
49% 142 Sam Houston State 45 32.7, 134 Central Arkansas 35 32.9
49% 24 Notre Dame 41 22.6, 13 Wisconsin 13 22.7
47% 227 Bryant 34 27.7, 241 Marist 17 28.5
47% 136 Tennessee - Martin 34 23.7, 158 Jacksonville State 31 24.5
46% 52 Louisville 31 32.1, 90 Florida State 23 32.6
44% 33 Wake Forest 37 32.8, 38 Virginia 17 33.5
43% 66 California - Davis 17 22.5, 79 Weber State 14 24.3
40% 141 Holy Cross 45 27.8, 138 Monmouth 15 30.4
37% 130 William & Mary 34 20.5, 123 Elon 31 23.1
36% 206 Lafayette 24 21.5, 155 Pennsylvania 14 29.1
36% 49 Baylor 31 21.5, 19 Iowa State 29 26.2
35% 100 Syracuse 24 23.5, 57 Liberty 21 27.0
34% 178 East Tennessee State 55 27.0, 143 Samford 48 35.4
34% 156 Northern Illinois 41 29.0, 128 Maine 14 36.3
34% 93 Alabama - Birmingham 28 26.6, 64 Tulane 21 34.3
33% 249 Valparaiso 24 16.8, 217 Drake 21 30.7
33% 191 Virginia Military 31 24.7, 108 Wofford 23 37.0
33% 184 Western Illinois 38 29.2, 140 Youngstown State 35 39.5
33% 36 Arkansas 20 22.3, 15 Texas A&M 10 30.8
32% 219 Norfolk State 28 19.1, 173 Saint Francis - Pennsy 16 31.2
32% 116 Texas - San Antonio 31 27.4, 94 Memphis 28 38.0
30% 186 Missouri State 31 23.9, 114 South Dakota 23 33.0
29% 201 Mercer 24 17.5, 104 Furman 3 37.8
25% 45 North Carolina State 27 17.2, 4 Clemson 21 30.5
22% 224 Northeast Louisiana 29 18.3, 105 Troy State 16 37.6
21% 80 Southern Methodist 42 25.3, 31 Texas Christian 34 40.2
15% 58 Oregon State 45 26.3, 26 Southern California 27 40.4
13% 208 Fordham 31 16.0, 127 Stony Brook 14 34.7
11% 117 Georgia Tech 45 22.7, 21 North Carolina 22 37.4
4% 234 Bowling Green 14 8.2, 29 Minnesota 10 48.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.69 57 1.13 15 0.98 15 0.93 14 0.97 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 112 82 80.7 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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