prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 41 Coastal Carolina 59 47.5, 207 Northeast Louisiana 6 13.8
96% 95 Yale 34 37.4, 252 Lehigh 0 11.4
95% 66 Montana State 40 41.3, 221 Northern Colorado 7 8.9
95% 19 Iowa State 59 46.4, 179 Kansas 7 14.3
94% 98 Toledo 45 45.2, 233 Massachusetts 7 19.8
93% 2 Georgia 37 38.6, 27 Arkansas 0 15.9
92% 144 Nicholls State 48 44.0, 237 Houston Baptist 17 22.5
92% 126 Incarnate Word 38 39.1, 236 Northwestern State 27 24.0
92% 14 North Dakota State 16 36.0, 124 North Dakota 10 12.9
91% 63 Southern Methodist 41 41.6, 143 South Florida 17 25.1
91% 1 Alabama 42 51.7, 12 Mississippi 21 28.6
90% 10 James Madison 23 39.1, 127 New Hampshire 21 17.4
89% 149 Tennessee - Chattanoog 45 38.8, 230 Western Carolina 17 19.8
89% 89 Kennesaw State 31 36.0, 164 Jacksonville State 6 18.5
89% 16 Penn State 24 35.9, 47 Indiana 0 21.2
87% 103 Texas - San Antonio 24 39.2, 186 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 22.6
87% 51 California - Davis 27 41.6, 171 Idaho 20 14.4
87% 44 Appalachian State 45 39.1, 148 Georgia State 16 22.2
87% 36 North Carolina State 34 38.4, 113 Louisiana Tech 27 18.5
86% 71 Southern Illinois 31 43.7, 166 Western Illinois 30 24.1
86% 55 South Dakota State 55 65.3, 246 Dixie State 7 21.0
86% 5 Clemson 19 34.5, 57 Boston College 13 16.1
85% 58 Princeton 24 40.7, 181 Columbia 7 14.4
85% 31 Southern California 37 31.4, 118 Colorado 14 20.4
84% 50 Air Force 38 33.3, 172 New Mexico 10 15.6
84% 25 Wake Forest 37 35.0, 54 Louisville 34 25.7
83% 141 San Jose State 37 32.5, 217 New Mexico State 31 13.9
83% 78 Weber State 38 31.5, 201 California Poly 7 11.4
82% 170 Vanderbilt 30 33.3, 228 Connecticut 28 19.5
82% 116 Kent State 27 34.4, 198 Bowling Green 20 20.7
82% 28 North Carolina 38 44.6, 94 Duke 7 31.9
81% 152 Monmouth 54 41.3, 212 Gardner - Webb 17 26.3
81% 110 South Dakota 38 34.1, 187 Indiana State 10 21.0
81% 102 Florida Atlantic 58 32.9, 178 Florida International 21 16.9
80% 177 South Carolina State 42 35.3, 222 Bethune - Cookman 35 22.1
80% 3 Ohio State 52 39.3, 35 Rutgers 13 24.1
75% 22 Michigan State 48 38.1, 125 Western Kentucky 31 16.3
74% 26 Brigham Young 34 36.4, 109 Utah State 20 22.1
73% 82 South Carolina 23 27.7, 119 Troy State 14 16.9
72% 107 North Carolina A&T 41 39.0, 220 Robert Morris 14 17.4
72% 81 Northern Iowa 34 32.7, 135 Youngstown State 7 13.7
72% 69 Louisiana - Lafayette 20 32.6, 153 South Alabama 18 17.3
69% 173 Ohio 34 34.7, 232 Akron 17 23.6
67% 189 Prairie View 27 38.3, 229 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 17 25.5
67% 139 Delaware 20 26.3, 131 Albany 15 21.6
67% 112 Sam Houston State 21 30.5, 168 Stephen F. Austin 20 20.2
67% 104 Southeast Louisiana 38 34.8, 192 McNeese State 35 25.6
67% 15 Iowa 51 28.6, 73 Maryland 14 17.8
66% 191 Florida A&M 28 30.7, 226 Alabama State 0 20.9
66% 161 Campbell 48 32.6, 219 North Alabama 31 25.9
66% 156 Georgia Southern 59 37.6, 145 Arkansas State 33 32.0
66% 91 Florida State 33 30.4, 92 Syracuse 30 24.2
66% 76 Dartmouth 31 31.0, 158 Pennsylvania 7 16.8
66% 48 Nebraska 56 21.8, 77 Northwestern 7 14.1
66% 13 Oklahoma 37 32.7, 39 Kansas State 31 26.1
65% 231 Drake 6 25.3, 255 Butler 3 17.5
65% 203 Northern Arizona 48 30.4, 208 Idaho State 17 27.1
65% 202 Saint Francis - Pennsy 27 25.3, 244 Morgan State 14 19.0
65% 133 Rhode Island 27 28.5, 151 Stony Brook 20 25.1
65% 121 Illinois 24 27.8, 155 North Carolina - Charl 14 22.9
65% 38 Oklahoma State 24 28.1, 56 Baylor 14 24.1
65% 6 Texas 32 37.6, 46 Texas Christian 27 32.4
64% 213 Bryant 36 35.3, 206 Brown 29 30.5
64% 183 Eastern Kentucky 20 56.2, 242 Tarleton State 3 43.2
64% 150 Texas - El Paso 28 26.7, 160 Old Dominion 21 21.5
64% 32 Pittsburgh 52 30.2, 80 Georgia Tech 21 27.2
63% 234 Grambling 37 25.9, 214 Alabama A&M 28 22.8
63% 215 San Diego 27 52.5, 239 Saint Thomas - Minneso 24 44.1
63% 199 Davidson 35 32.7, 241 Stetson 28 27.6
63% 136 Central Arkansas 42 34.5, 194 Abilene Christian 21 31.3
63% 115 Miami - Ohio 28 29.4, 114 Central Michigan 17 27.1
59% 99 Harvard 38 28.0, 108 Holy Cross 13 25.9
54% 68 Liberty 36 26.5, 90 Alabama - Birmingham 12 25.9
53% 193 The Citadel 35 32.6, 167 Virginia Military 24 32.3
52% 210 Murray State 22 19.9, 225 Eastern Illinois 6 19.7
52% 163 Portland State 20 26.5, 188 Southern Utah 13 26.0
51% 205 Rice 24 24.3, 185 Southern Mississippi 19 24.1
49% 190 Norfolk State 47 29.7, 218 Hampton 44 30.1
41% 162 East Tennessee State 27 22.6, 123 Wofford 21 24.7
40% 180 Mercer 45 36.8, 140 Samford 42 38.9
40% 169 Fordham 42 21.9, 195 Lafayette 41 23.2
39% 4 Michigan 38 23.2, 20 Wisconsin 17 25.0
38% 85 Houston 45 27.3, 84 Tulsa 10 29.2
38% 37 Oregon State 27 26.8, 30 Washington 24 28.6
37% 245 Marist 27 25.8, 243 Valparaiso 24 28.7
37% 137 Northern Illinois 27 33.9, 105 Eastern Michigan 20 36.5
37% 101 East Carolina 52 34.1, 88 Tulane 29 36.1
37% 87 Eastern Washington 34 37.5, 45 Montana 28 40.8
37% 65 Minnesota 20 23.2, 60 Purdue 13 26.6
37% 9 Cincinnati 24 27.2, 11 Notre Dame 13 29.9
36% 224 Colgate 28 15.1, 216 Georgetown 21 19.2
36% 79 Western Michigan 24 33.2, 83 Buffalo 17 36.1
35% 75 Tennessee 62 28.4, 62 Missouri 24 34.8
34% 159 Temple 34 28.9, 97 Memphis 31 36.4
34% 134 Elon 20 20.3, 128 Richmond 7 26.2
34% 100 Washington State 21 24.2, 86 California 6 30.0
34% 53 Virginia 30 25.7, 43 Miami - Florida 28 33.6
34% 40 Arizona State 42 27.3, 17 California - Los Angel 23 34.2
34% 24 Auburn 24 27.6, 18 Louisiana State 19 33.6
33% 72 Texas Tech 23 25.7, 42 West Virginia 20 34.2
32% 247 Bucknell 21 12.5, 182 Cornell 10 24.8
32% 132 Ball State 28 21.6, 67 Army 16 32.2
32% 59 Kentucky 20 22.4, 7 Florida 13 32.6
31% 258 Mississippi Valley Sta 17 18.1, 211 North Carolina Central 16 37.0
31% 154 Missouri State 41 19.4, 129 Illinois State 20 31.3
28% 64 Stanford 31 24.3, 8 Oregon 24 35.4
25% 70 Mississippi State 26 14.2, 21 Texas A&M 22 26.8
15% 253 Tennessee Tech 28 24.1, 175 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 37.7
15% 250 Delaware State 33 18.6, 235 Wagner 27 31.6
15% 238 Tennessee State 24 22.3, 157 Austin Peay 22 38.4
15% 165 Middle Tennessee State 34 20.0, 52 Marshall 28 36.7
15% 117 Hawaii 27 22.7, 23 Fresno State 24 37.3
13% 249 Morehead State 45 33.2, 196 Dayton 38 47.7
11% 248 Howard 22 17.5, 197 Sacred Heart 17 33.0
10% 96 Nevada - Reno 41 20.6, 33 Boise State 31 37.6
7% 176 Navy 34 22.6, 34 Central Florida 30 42.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.39 55 0.81 8 1.03 33 0.89 12 0.98 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 116 77 85.1 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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