prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 57 Montana State 45 45.6, 205 California Poly 7 13.0
97% 14 Florida 42 49.5, 178 Vanderbilt 0 10.3
96% 169 Pennsylvania 20 31.5, 258 Lehigh 0 7.5
96% 108 Sam Houston State 41 43.7, 251 Lamar 7 8.9
96% 4 Ohio State 66 47.9, 79 Maryland 17 20.1
95% 5 Cincinnati 52 48.2, 164 Temple 3 11.8
94% 88 Missouri 48 50.0, 193 North Texas 35 23.7
94% 80 Nevada - Reno 55 45.6, 197 New Mexico State 28 21.4
93% 45 Liberty 41 41.2, 146 Middle Tennessee State 13 19.7
92% 115 North Carolina A&T 38 40.2, 213 North Alabama 34 16.3
90% 46 San Diego State 31 35.1, 183 New Mexico 7 8.3
89% 161 Fordham 56 37.0, 244 Wagner 7 20.2
89% 64 Marshall 20 40.6, 165 Old Dominion 13 17.8
88% 81 Harvard 24 36.1, 201 Cornell 10 11.5
88% 56 Princeton 31 39.1, 148 Monmouth 28 21.5
88% 35 Coastal Carolina 52 49.7, 167 Arkansas State 20 30.7
87% 155 Mercer 34 41.7, 229 Western Carolina 24 28.5
87% 52 Montana 31 62.6, 250 Dixie State 14 16.5
87% 31 California - Los Angel 34 39.9, 128 Arizona 16 26.1
86% 60 Southern Methodist 31 37.6, 163 Navy 24 24.2
85% 187 Lafayette 27 25.5, 245 Bucknell 0 12.4
84% 76 Eastern Washington 63 44.1, 219 Northern Colorado 17 25.8
83% 138 Tennessee - Martin 48 31.5, 198 Murray State 24 17.3
83% 107 Towson 21 28.8, 168 Stony Brook 14 16.9
83% 85 Kennesaw State 34 43.2, 211 Hampton 15 21.9
83% 51 Central Florida 20 46.8, 87 East Carolina 16 33.8
83% 34 Wisconsin 24 28.5, 120 Illinois 0 14.4
75% 1 Georgia 34 31.0, 22 Auburn 10 18.2
73% 157 Georgia State 55 35.2, 214 Northeast Louisiana 21 26.3
73% 9 Mississippi 52 42.3, 37 Arkansas 51 30.9
72% 156 Duquesne 39 34.2, 212 Bryant 34 19.2
71% 192 Saint Francis - Pennsy 55 36.8, 253 Long Island 10 16.7
70% 24 Arizona State 28 32.3, 62 Stanford 10 21.6
69% 72 Dartmouth 24 31.2, 97 Yale 17 19.6
68% 53 Houston 40 36.9, 104 Tulane 22 29.2
68% 12 North Dakota State 34 22.2, 70 Northern Iowa 20 6.4
67% 249 Delaware State 56 36.6, 248 Houston Baptist 6 30.2
67% 144 East Tennessee State 48 31.8, 184 The Citadel 21 21.1
67% 140 Campbell 42 39.2, 209 Gardner - Webb 28 29.0
67% 124 Troy State 27 26.7, 159 Georgia Southern 24 19.3
67% 42 Tennessee 45 30.7, 83 South Carolina 20 20.8
67% 26 Wake Forest 40 30.6, 84 Syracuse 37 23.5
66% 222 San Diego 52 23.5, 256 Butler 21 14.0
66% 145 Sacramento State 41 26.1, 202 Southern Utah 20 14.8
66% 130 Central Michigan 30 30.5, 188 Ohio 27 26.1
66% 123 William & Mary 31 25.8, 143 Albany 24 19.1
66% 113 Colorado State 32 25.8, 141 San Jose State 14 20.6
66% 41 Air Force 24 29.9, 86 Wyoming 14 19.1
65% 239 Morehead State 38 36.1, 257 Presbyterian 30 28.4
65% 181 Eastern Kentucky 30 25.2, 194 Abilene Christian 15 17.1
65% 98 South Dakota 20 28.6, 114 North Dakota 13 22.9
65% 17 Notre Dame 32 29.1, 68 Virginia Tech 29 24.4
64% 126 Rhode Island 22 29.4, 131 Delaware 15 26.1
64% 94 Southeast Louisiana 58 36.4, 134 Nicholls State 48 32.7
64% 3 Michigan 32 25.9, 20 Nebraska 29 22.8
63% 246 Marist 34 27.7, 247 Stetson 3 25.4
63% 236 Northwestern State 21 33.2, 248 Houston Baptist 17 31.3
63% 235 Alabama State 35 29.0, 230 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 15 25.3
63% 227 Saint Thomas - Minneso 20 50.6, 234 Valparaiso 13 42.2
63% 106 Tulsa 35 33.1, 103 Memphis 29 29.9
63% 73 Baylor 45 24.1, 58 West Virginia 20 21.6
63% 19 Michigan State 31 30.8, 43 Rutgers 13 27.9
62% 210 Brown 31 28.7, 218 Colgate 10 27.0
62% 8 Iowa 23 22.4, 6 Penn State 20 20.2
61% 162 North Carolina - Charl 45 28.4, 182 Florida International 33 27.1
59% 215 Dayton 28 28.4, 240 Drake 10 27.1
57% 173 Jacksonville State 28 21.4, 152 Stephen F. Austin 24 19.9
55% 175 Columbia 22 26.6, 195 Central Connecticut 20 25.8
55% 160 Texas - El Paso 26 25.1, 190 Southern Mississippi 13 24.3
53% 185 Indiana State 37 32.6, 151 Western Illinois 27 32.1
51% 191 Florida A&M 30 27.0, 176 South Carolina State 7 26.9
51% 112 Eastern Michigan 13 30.2, 111 Miami - Ohio 12 30.1
50% 232 Alcorn State 24 16.9, 220 Grambling 20 16.9
50% 122 Elon 33 26.4, 149 Maine 23 26.4
46% 242 Howard 27 26.7, 241 Morgan State 0 27.2
46% 89 Georgia Tech 31 30.1, 105 Duke 27 30.7
45% 11 Oklahoma 55 37.1, 7 Texas 48 37.8
44% 158 Youngstown State 41 32.8, 121 Missouri State 33 33.9
44% 100 Alabama - Birmingham 31 22.7, 91 Florida Atlantic 14 23.7
41% 23 Utah 42 27.8, 30 Southern California 26 29.1
40% 49 Texas Christian 52 34.1, 63 Texas Tech 31 36.0
39% 110 Texas - San Antonio 52 27.3, 118 Western Kentucky 46 29.5
38% 177 Texas State - San Marc 33 24.9, 150 South Alabama 31 27.3
37% 237 Massachusetts 27 31.0, 221 Connecticut 13 33.3
37% 171 Idaho 42 28.8, 153 Portland State 35 33.1
37% 61 Kentucky 42 23.7, 25 Louisiana State 21 26.5
36% 224 Robert Morris 31 22.5, 179 Charleston Southern 24 26.1
36% 174 Virginia Military 37 28.0, 139 Tennessee - Chattanoog 34 31.2
36% 135 Furman 42 18.6, 132 Wofford 20 22.1
36% 95 Washington State 31 30.6, 33 Oregon State 24 33.9
36% 44 Virginia 34 30.3, 50 Louisville 33 33.9
35% 74 Southern Illinois 42 20.8, 36 South Dakota State 41 28.4
34% 125 Kent State 48 26.7, 93 Buffalo 38 33.0
33% 252 Tennessee Tech 27 20.2, 228 North Carolina Central 16 31.0
33% 223 Jackson State 61 25.4, 200 Alabama A&M 15 33.5
33% 39 Boise State 26 24.1, 27 Brigham Young 17 31.5
30% 208 Southeast Missouri Sta 30 28.3, 166 Austin Peay 14 38.2
21% 231 Akron 35 19.2, 170 Bowling Green 20 32.2
21% 129 Northern Illinois 22 22.9, 92 Toledo 20 36.0
15% 54 Villanova 28 26.7, 10 James Madison 27 43.6
14% 90 Florida State 35 27.9, 21 North Carolina 25 43.6
12% 116 Ball State 45 24.7, 69 Western Michigan 20 37.1
10% 255 Mississippi Valley Sta 20 20.5, 217 Bethune - Cookman 14 40.4
10% 254 Texas Southern 35 23.7, 204 Southern 31 42.7
9% 29 Texas A&M 41 16.2, 2 Alabama 38 33.4
8% 225 Idaho State 27 16.0, 75 California - Davis 17 42.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.86 49 1.01 8 1.01 19 0.98 15 0.78 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 72 76.2 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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