prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 82 Southeast Louisiana 61 68.2, 258 Houston Baptist 24 11.2
96% 67 Harvard 30 37.2, 180 Lafayette 3 10.8
95% 64 Princeton 56 45.5, 195 Brown 42 19.2
95% 1 Georgia 30 35.1, 39 Kentucky 13 7.9
94% 178 Norfolk State 42 54.5, 258 Houston Baptist 14 10.8
94% 86 California - Davis 32 38.8, 230 Northern Colorado 3 9.9
93% 112 Miami - Ohio 34 39.5, 211 Akron 21 15.0
92% 17 James Madison 19 39.1, 140 Richmond 3 17.0
91% 128 Fordham 66 37.9, 247 Bucknell 21 13.7
91% 14 Oregon 24 36.1, 94 California 17 15.6
91% 2 Alabama 49 41.4, 59 Mississippi State 9 21.7
90% 231 Grambling 34 36.4, 249 Texas Southern 20 18.8
90% 198 Abilene Christian 24 33.5, 251 Lamar 17 14.8
90% 58 Eastern Washington 71 54.5, 162 Idaho 21 31.6
90% 12 North Dakota State 20 35.9, 153 Illinois State 0 13.0
89% 123 Furman 24 34.1, 197 The Citadel 14 15.1
89% 109 Texas - San Antonio 45 35.8, 202 Rice 0 18.0
89% 93 South Carolina 21 34.1, 185 Vanderbilt 20 14.1
89% 75 Marshall 49 39.7, 189 North Texas 21 22.3
88% 96 Buffalo 27 36.7, 194 Ohio 26 21.5
88% 80 Texas Tech 41 47.0, 188 Kansas 14 27.9
87% 5 Cincinnati 56 43.0, 62 Central Florida 21 23.4
86% 205 Davidson 70 42.5, 256 Presbyterian 35 18.8
86% 48 Southern Illinois 31 35.7, 111 North Dakota 28 19.6
86% 25 South Dakota State 41 40.7, 154 Western Illinois 17 19.8
85% 161 Portland State 31 38.1, 213 Idaho State 10 24.6
85% 118 Holy Cross 48 31.3, 212 Georgetown 14 13.9
85% 34 Villanova 17 36.4, 147 Albany 10 20.8
85% 10 Clemson 17 29.2, 73 Syracuse 14 12.8
82% 95 Western Michigan 64 37.8, 119 Kent State 31 28.5
81% 102 Colorado State 36 30.8, 182 New Mexico 7 20.8
81% 16 Oklahoma 52 42.3, 37 Texas Christian 31 28.9
80% 171 Jackson State 28 29.6, 229 Alabama State 7 15.5
80% 46 San Diego State 19 26.4, 167 San Jose State 13 8.3
79% 106 Memphis 35 36.0, 150 Navy 17 23.3
79% 79 Kennesaw State 14 35.1, 131 North Carolina A&T 0 22.6
78% 132 Northern Illinois 34 32.7, 181 Bowling Green 26 21.0
77% 53 Virginia 48 40.5, 108 Duke 0 28.7
75% 101 Alabama - Birmingham 34 31.6, 206 Southern Mississippi 0 19.1
74% 126 Missouri State 37 37.0, 184 Indiana State 7 24.9
72% 76 Nevada - Reno 34 37.9, 125 Hawaii 17 25.4
69% 217 South Carolina State 37 29.6, 250 Morgan State 14 16.2
69% 110 Utah State 28 34.3, 172 Nevada - Las Vegas 24 25.0
68% 220 Alcorn State 24 30.2, 254 Mississippi Valley Sta 12 19.0
68% 169 Florida A&M 35 36.2, 224 Alabama A&M 31 25.4
67% 186 McNeese State 35 27.1, 244 Northwestern State 17 18.1
67% 179 Charleston Southern 35 35.9, 196 Hampton 5 26.9
67% 124 Tennessee - Martin 28 27.9, 221 Eastern Illinois 17 17.9
67% 42 Wisconsin 20 26.3, 78 Army 14 15.7
67% 28 Texas A&M 35 33.9, 89 Missouri 14 25.8
66% 236 Morehead State 31 38.5, 255 Butler 8 29.0
66% 228 Tennessee State 20 29.0, 242 Tennessee Tech 13 23.2
66% 208 Cornell 34 21.0, 234 Colgate 20 12.6
66% 135 Colorado 34 27.1, 133 Arizona 0 20.2
66% 105 Tulsa 32 30.7, 146 South Florida 31 23.7
66% 71 Dartmouth 38 24.8, 117 New Hampshire 21 16.3
66% 31 North Carolina 45 34.0, 56 Miami - Florida 42 27.7
66% 20 Utah 35 29.5, 24 Arizona State 21 22.7
65% 222 San Diego 13 21.2, 246 Drake 10 15.2
65% 141 Troy State 31 28.8, 176 Texas State - San Marc 28 23.5
65% 134 Incarnate Word 38 35.3, 156 Nicholls State 21 30.6
65% 120 Towson 28 30.5, 115 Rhode Island 7 26.0
65% 15 Michigan State 20 31.6, 51 Indiana 15 27.0
64% 209 Sacred Heart 27 23.7, 214 Central Connecticut 17 19.6
64% 200 Prairie View 35 33.3, 243 Bethune - Cookman 29 29.4
64% 168 Columbia 23 26.7, 170 Pennsylvania 14 22.4
64% 104 Western Kentucky 43 34.2, 158 Old Dominion 20 29.5
64% 49 Baylor 38 27.1, 40 Brigham Young 24 23.8
64% 13 Iowa State 33 26.7, 41 Kansas State 20 23.3
63% 190 Northern Arizona 59 26.3, 204 Southern Utah 35 22.1
63% 149 South Alabama 41 25.4, 163 Georgia Southern 14 21.3
63% 55 Montana State 13 25.6, 81 Weber State 7 21.9
63% 9 Mississippi 31 41.0, 29 Tennessee 26 37.6
62% 210 North Alabama 42 28.3, 215 Robert Morris 31 26.4
62% 52 Fresno State 17 30.9, 85 Wyoming 0 28.1
59% 235 Tarleton State 41 55.9, 239 Dixie State 20 51.0
59% 218 Southern 34 32.5, 240 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 31.2
56% 164 Stony Brook 34 19.4, 142 Delaware 17 18.6
54% 22 Pittsburgh 28 31.5, 69 Virginia Tech 7 30.8
53% 187 Bryant 18 26.7, 183 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 26.2
52% 238 Saint Thomas - Minneso 38 37.9, 252 Stetson 7 37.3
48% 97 Northwestern 21 21.9, 57 Rutgers 7 22.3
48% 91 Washington State 34 26.5, 68 Stanford 31 26.8
46% 143 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 23.7, 127 East Tennessee State 16 24.5
45% 74 Louisiana - Lafayette 41 27.4, 47 Appalachian State 13 28.1
42% 100 Ball State 38 28.5, 114 Eastern Michigan 31 29.4
37% 145 Central Michigan 26 24.6, 92 Toledo 23 28.0
37% 43 North Carolina State 33 24.3, 63 Boston College 7 27.7
36% 166 Maine 27 25.7, 122 William & Mary 16 30.9
36% 159 Texas - El Paso 19 25.0, 103 Louisiana Tech 3 29.2
36% 129 Samford 27 32.5, 155 Wofford 24 36.8
36% 45 Louisiana State 49 30.0, 11 Florida 42 33.6
36% 23 Auburn 38 26.8, 21 Arkansas 23 30.6
34% 199 Murray State 32 25.9, 191 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 31.7
34% 177 Eastern Kentucky 38 22.9, 137 Central Arkansas 35 31.1
34% 130 Monmouth 34 31.8, 113 Campbell 17 37.3
34% 66 Minnesota 30 19.2, 18 Nebraska 23 25.1
34% 32 California - Los Angel 24 25.0, 33 Washington 17 31.0
33% 165 Virginia Military 45 31.3, 138 Mercer 7 39.1
33% 99 South Dakota 34 10.7, 61 Northern Iowa 21 23.5
33% 35 Air Force 24 21.8, 27 Boise State 17 28.5
23% 233 Marist 20 27.4, 201 Dayton 17 38.9
23% 148 Sacramento State 28 12.7, 83 Montana 21 29.9
14% 38 Oklahoma State 32 25.3, 8 Texas 24 39.6
12% 70 Purdue 24 12.1, 7 Iowa 7 29.2
5% 226 Connecticut 21 12.8, 98 Yale 15 42.8
4% 219 Northeast Louisiana 31 15.3, 44 Liberty 28 45.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.99 49 1.06 9 1.02 24 1.07 14 0.92 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 81 78.7 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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