prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 74 Florida State 59 51.9, 231 Massachusetts 3 15.6
97% 56 Montana State 27 46.0, 211 Idaho State 9 9.5
97% 11 Oklahoma 35 54.8, 199 Kansas 23 19.4
96% 152 Nicholls State 44 51.9, 258 Houston Baptist 14 15.0
96% 4 Cincinnati 27 42.1, 155 Navy 20 9.4
95% 108 Fordham 35 41.0, 255 Lehigh 28 11.4
94% 84 Southeast Louisiana 51 47.8, 244 Northwestern State 14 21.8
94% 28 Arkansas 45 52.9, 247 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 3 15.1
94% 9 North Dakota State 27 41.7, 111 Missouri State 20 12.9
93% 241 Tennessee Tech 56 43.1, 258 Houston Baptist 13 14.9
93% 66 Liberty 35 40.7, 195 North Texas 26 21.5
93% 16 James Madison 22 37.5, 147 Delaware 10 16.0
92% 121 Hawaii 48 42.5, 200 New Mexico State 34 25.6
92% 97 Holy Cross 42 37.4, 238 Colgate 10 11.3
92% 53 Louisiana - Lafayette 28 47.8, 180 Arkansas State 27 27.8
92% 3 Ohio State 54 41.8, 61 Indiana 7 23.0
92% 2 Alabama 52 46.7, 32 Tennessee 24 20.6
91% 172 Florida A&M 31 35.0, 252 Mississippi Valley Sta 28 14.8
91% 145 Central Arkansas 49 40.3, 249 Lamar 38 21.3
91% 92 California - Davis 24 37.8, 210 California Poly 13 18.9
90% 34 Texas A&M 44 29.4, 109 South Carolina 14 10.8
90% 5 Michigan 33 38.1, 95 Northwestern 7 13.3
89% 46 Villanova 44 38.6, 129 Rhode Island 0 20.4
88% 165 Jackson State 42 37.3, 240 Bethune - Cookman 12 18.9
88% 43 Washington 21 31.8, 162 Arizona 16 12.8
87% 192 Davidson 49 39.9, 257 Butler 35 20.3
86% 120 Buffalo 45 38.1, 197 Akron 10 22.3
86% 114 Yale 42 29.9, 182 Pennsylvania 28 16.1
86% 73 Mississippi State 45 34.8, 179 Vanderbilt 6 16.7
86% 50 Houston 31 39.7, 93 East Carolina 24 26.1
85% 99 North Dakota 34 37.0, 146 Western Illinois 10 23.6
84% 25 Virginia 48 36.3, 88 Georgia Tech 40 22.6
83% 102 Sam Houston State 42 34.1, 170 Jacksonville State 7 18.5
79% 189 Bryant 31 32.5, 246 Wagner 10 21.9
78% 130 Tennessee - Martin 38 39.4, 201 Southeast Missouri Sta 30 24.9
78% 106 Montana 34 35.3, 184 Idaho 14 19.8
77% 64 Southern Methodist 55 41.4, 112 Tulane 26 31.8
76% 76 Central Florida 24 43.2, 105 Memphis 7 33.8
75% 139 Sacramento State 44 34.6, 174 Northern Arizona 0 23.2
74% 224 San Diego 69 35.6, 256 Presbyterian 28 19.5
74% 13 Notre Dame 31 36.6, 40 Southern California 16 26.2
71% 51 Minnesota 34 31.8, 98 Maryland 16 21.7
68% 156 Middle Tennessee State 44 33.1, 219 Connecticut 13 24.6
68% 141 Georgia State 28 37.3, 181 Texas State - San Marc 16 29.0
67% 221 Alcorn State 44 35.0, 245 Texas Southern 27 25.6
67% 140 South Florida 34 32.6, 177 Temple 14 25.0
67% 90 Florida Atlantic 38 29.8, 158 North Carolina - Charl 9 21.4
67% 37 Fresno State 34 35.9, 77 Nevada - Reno 32 25.1
67% 8 Mississippi 31 45.1, 26 Louisiana State 17 36.8
67% 7 Iowa State 24 30.5, 36 Oklahoma State 21 22.0
66% 190 Norfolk State 45 35.4, 235 Howard 31 28.0
66% 153 Stephen F. Austin 37 34.1, 242 Dixie State 20 15.7
66% 117 Eastern Michigan 55 29.0, 171 Bowling Green 24 22.6
66% 87 Western Kentucky 34 40.2, 185 Florida International 19 30.3
66% 85 California 26 22.9, 110 Colorado 3 15.6
66% 82 Kennesaw State 30 32.6, 124 Campbell 7 23.9
66% 24 Wake Forest 70 33.1, 72 Army 56 27.0
65% 218 Georgetown 29 24.1, 250 Bucknell 21 18.1
65% 208 South Carolina State 13 32.2, 234 Delaware State 7 26.3
65% 57 Louisville 28 32.0, 78 Boston College 14 26.2
64% 65 Princeton 18 30.5, 52 Harvard 16 26.5
63% 126 Elon 24 25.0, 123 New Hampshire 10 22.5
62% 149 Stony Brook 27 18.8, 148 Richmond 14 17.0
62% 96 Toledo 34 30.1, 80 Western Michigan 15 28.6
62% 59 Brigham Young 21 27.0, 83 Washington State 19 25.5
62% 44 Miami - Florida 31 27.3, 29 North Carolina State 30 25.3
62% 19 Oregon 34 33.3, 33 California - Los Angel 31 31.4
60% 239 North Carolina Central 28 21.4, 251 Morgan State 17 19.8
60% 187 Austin Peay 47 28.8, 203 Murray State 6 27.4
58% 205 Gardner - Webb 28 31.8, 213 Robert Morris 17 30.2
58% 168 Mercer 45 27.1, 167 Wofford 14 25.6
57% 159 San Jose State 27 21.8, 157 Nevada - Las Vegas 20 20.7
56% 136 William & Mary 40 23.5, 115 Towson 14 22.6
55% 15 Pittsburgh 27 26.2, 23 Clemson 17 25.2
50% 67 Appalachian State 30 29.2, 31 Coastal Carolina 27 29.2
47% 138 Kent State 34 31.1, 173 Ohio 27 31.4
47% 89 Texas - San Antonio 45 31.0, 103 Louisiana Tech 16 31.4
46% 107 Utah State 26 28.5, 91 Colorado State 24 29.0
46% 45 Kansas State 25 31.2, 71 Texas Tech 24 31.7
42% 226 Northern Colorado 17 20.1, 214 Southern Utah 9 22.0
38% 54 Wisconsin 30 17.9, 47 Purdue 13 20.0
37% 229 Valparaiso 45 26.8, 216 Dayton 28 29.2
37% 212 Sacred Heart 31 19.6, 150 Duquesne 13 23.0
37% 132 Tennessee - Chattanoog 55 31.0, 137 Samford 13 34.4
36% 209 Prairie View 48 26.0, 207 Southern 21 29.7
36% 194 Brown 49 26.7, 198 Cornell 45 31.6
36% 186 Indiana State 28 28.6, 142 Youngstown State 17 32.5
36% 175 McNeese State 28 26.7, 116 Incarnate Word 20 31.1
36% 119 East Tennessee State 17 20.0, 133 Furman 13 24.7
36% 118 Miami - Ohio 24 23.8, 100 Ball State 17 27.1
35% 202 North Alabama 45 25.7, 169 Charleston Southern 22 31.1
35% 69 Syracuse 41 21.1, 81 Virginia Tech 36 26.2
35% 55 San Diego State 20 18.8, 38 Air Force 14 23.9
35% 49 Oregon State 42 30.1, 17 Utah 34 35.0
34% 233 Morehead State 27 32.0, 227 Marist 24 38.9
34% 160 Maine 19 22.7, 144 Albany 16 29.6
34% 125 Northern Illinois 39 28.5, 131 Central Michigan 38 34.8
34% 86 Weber State 35 31.6, 42 Eastern Washington 34 38.6
34% 68 West Virginia 29 25.4, 58 Texas Christian 17 32.1
34% 62 Northern Iowa 26 12.6, 22 South Dakota State 17 23.8
33% 236 Tennessee State 28 17.9, 217 Eastern Illinois 0 26.3
32% 253 Long Island 30 20.4, 215 Central Connecticut 13 39.5
32% 204 Hampton 30 24.8, 143 North Carolina A&T 9 36.0
32% 193 Northeast Louisiana 41 22.2, 135 South Alabama 31 32.7
23% 163 Illinois State 20 17.3, 70 South Dakota 14 31.6
15% 225 Western Carolina 45 27.8, 188 The Citadel 31 41.0
14% 196 New Mexico 14 13.2, 104 Wyoming 3 32.6
10% 164 Columbia 19 14.6, 60 Dartmouth 0 35.3
9% 230 Rice 30 8.8, 94 Alabama - Birmingham 24 35.5
3% 127 Illinois 20 8.5, 6 Penn State 18 38.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.90 50 0.80 10 1.19 15 0.92 23 0.98 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 74 81.3 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net