prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 1 Georgia 43 53.9, 105 Missouri 6 11.2
96% 34 Kansas State 35 42.9, 206 Kansas 10 12.8
96% 26 James Madison 51 43.8, 146 Campbell 14 15.7
96% 2 Alabama 20 48.8, 29 Louisiana State 14 23.3
95% 5 Cincinnati 28 42.1, 116 Tulsa 20 12.2
95% 4 Michigan 29 41.8, 94 Indiana 7 16.8
94% 40 Brigham Young 59 44.4, 205 Idaho State 14 14.1
94% 12 Notre Dame 34 39.0, 118 Navy 6 12.9
92% 93 Kennesaw State 45 35.5, 219 Robert Morris 21 13.1
92% 81 East Carolina 45 41.4, 210 Temple 3 18.6
91% 248 Northwestern State 28 39.7, 257 Houston Baptist 24 19.8
91% 166 Rhode Island 35 40.9, 243 Massachusetts 22 19.4
91% 72 Central Florida 14 43.4, 128 Tulane 10 26.0
91% 55 Appalachian State 48 48.3, 176 Arkansas State 14 28.9
90% 223 Valparaiso 65 49.7, 258 Presbyterian 55 19.3
90% 163 Austin Peay 42 33.0, 246 Eastern Illinois 26 14.8
90% 145 Jackson State 41 42.3, 226 Texas Southern 21 20.6
90% 70 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 36.8, 155 Georgia State 17 16.9
89% 123 Sacramento State 41 35.8, 217 California Poly 9 16.3
89% 115 Monmouth 45 41.9, 188 North Alabama 33 23.0
88% 106 Ball State 31 37.6, 208 Akron 25 21.5
88% 103 California - Davis 40 37.9, 192 Northern Arizona 24 23.0
88% 91 Utah State 35 44.0, 191 New Mexico State 13 28.0
88% 63 Nevada - Reno 27 34.6, 148 San Jose State 24 18.2
88% 44 Coastal Carolina 28 39.7, 184 Georgia Southern 8 20.1
88% 35 Houston 54 36.2, 137 South Florida 42 22.5
88% 19 Pittsburgh 54 44.2, 135 Duke 29 25.2
87% 90 North Dakota 24 36.5, 161 Youngstown State 21 20.1
87% 14 Penn State 31 35.4, 98 Maryland 14 21.7
86% 158 Tennessee - Martin 41 33.4, 215 Tennessee State 20 19.4
86% 104 Holy Cross 35 31.1, 185 Lafayette 10 15.3
86% 10 Mississippi 27 41.9, 69 Liberty 14 27.3
85% 121 Montana 35 29.4, 222 Northern Colorado 0 12.9
85% 88 Sam Houston State 59 42.7, 236 Dixie State 10 8.7
85% 60 Harvard 49 29.9, 136 Columbia 21 17.5
82% 52 San Diego State 17 33.1, 125 Hawaii 10 20.3
81% 156 Samford 35 44.5, 216 The Citadel 14 31.4
80% 87 South Dakota 42 37.4, 152 Western Illinois 21 26.9
80% 41 Miami - Florida 33 35.6, 86 Georgia Tech 30 23.9
79% 107 Yale 63 42.1, 194 Brown 38 29.0
78% 211 South Carolina State 15 33.7, 228 Howard 12 22.9
77% 3 Ohio State 26 37.8, 22 Nebraska 17 26.0
76% 71 Western Kentucky 48 40.9, 122 Middle Tennessee State 21 28.1
76% 31 Iowa 17 25.4, 114 Northwestern 12 12.3
75% 193 Prairie View 24 32.0, 242 Alabama State 20 19.3
73% 171 Florida A&M 29 31.2, 224 Southern 17 23.1
72% 100 Tennessee - Chattanoog 35 29.1, 207 Wofford 10 15.0
71% 172 North Carolina - Charl 31 30.9, 214 Rice 24 19.8
69% 213 Alabama A&M 42 40.0, 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 29.7
68% 220 San Diego 10 38.0, 234 Morehead State 3 28.9
68% 124 Fordham 41 38.3, 218 Georgetown 20 26.0
68% 112 Alabama - Birmingham 52 29.6, 129 Louisiana Tech 38 21.2
68% 59 Villanova 35 30.7, 109 Elon 0 22.1
67% 78 Texas - San Antonio 44 29.1, 139 Texas - El Paso 23 21.5
67% 28 Arkansas 31 32.4, 56 Mississippi State 28 25.1
67% 25 Wisconsin 52 23.9, 80 Rutgers 3 16.0
67% 13 Utah 52 32.6, 77 Stanford 7 25.0
66% 196 Jacksonville State 40 30.4, 202 Abilene Christian 25 23.0
66% 181 Duquesne 34 34.8, 245 Long Island 28 23.0
66% 46 Arizona State 31 31.6, 62 Southern California 16 25.9
65% 142 Richmond 28 24.7, 130 Towson 17 20.4
65% 127 East Tennessee State 27 33.8, 119 Virginia Military 20 29.5
64% 238 Dayton 41 32.0, 254 Stetson 13 27.7
64% 237 Murray State 32 26.8, 239 Tennessee Tech 27 23.5
64% 235 Marist 7 18.0, 249 Drake 0 13.6
64% 195 Hampton 27 37.6, 178 Gardner - Webb 21 33.6
64% 154 Old Dominion 47 30.9, 204 Florida International 24 26.3
64% 143 Troy State 31 24.3, 150 South Alabama 24 19.5
64% 138 Stephen F. Austin 31 24.2, 157 Eastern Kentucky 17 19.6
64% 20 Texas A&M 20 25.0, 18 Auburn 3 20.2
63% 201 Idaho 42 30.7, 212 Southern Utah 24 27.8
63% 197 Davidson 42 39.4, 209 Saint Thomas - Minneso 15 31.7
63% 141 Kent State 52 35.9, 120 Northern Illinois 47 33.6
63% 16 Iowa State 30 35.9, 17 Texas 7 33.6
63% 9 Oregon 26 26.2, 54 Washington 16 23.6
62% 227 Tarleton State 42 39.1, 247 Lamar 21 34.4
62% 179 North Texas 38 29.1, 221 Southern Mississippi 14 27.1
61% 24 Oklahoma State 24 24.0, 58 West Virginia 3 22.7
59% 36 Clemson 30 22.9, 53 Louisville 24 21.6
56% 64 Marshall 28 26.9, 85 Florida Atlantic 13 26.0
55% 79 Dartmouth 31 25.1, 67 Princeton 7 24.3
54% 167 Albany 20 22.9, 147 New Hampshire 7 22.5
49% 200 Texas State - San Marc 27 33.5, 169 Northeast Louisiana 19 33.7
48% 250 Lehigh 38 17.6, 251 Bucknell 6 18.0
45% 66 Montana State 23 39.6, 57 Eastern Washington 20 40.2
42% 182 North Carolina A&T 21 23.2, 173 Charleston Southern 18 24.5
42% 21 South Dakota State 27 23.1, 8 North Dakota State 19 24.4
41% 101 Boston College 17 23.9, 73 Virginia Tech 3 25.1
40% 30 North Carolina State 28 27.4, 51 Florida State 14 28.8
40% 27 Boise State 40 26.7, 42 Fresno State 14 28.0
38% 229 Central Connecticut 30 25.9, 189 Bryant 15 27.8
37% 153 Nicholls State 24 23.9, 159 McNeese State 14 27.7
36% 252 Morgan State 20 20.7, 232 Delaware State 14 24.9
36% 231 Bethune - Cookman 35 28.4, 203 Alcorn State 31 32.2
36% 165 Nevada - Las Vegas 31 22.1, 175 New Mexico 17 25.4
36% 76 Texas Christian 30 29.1, 23 Baylor 28 33.1
36% 45 Tennessee 45 23.7, 43 Kentucky 42 27.5
36% 39 North Carolina 58 39.1, 7 Wake Forest 55 42.7
36% 38 Purdue 40 24.2, 6 Michigan State 29 28.0
35% 149 Stony Brook 22 22.8, 126 Maine 17 27.1
35% 132 Wyoming 31 21.8, 83 Colorado State 17 26.0
35% 131 Incarnate Word 55 38.6, 89 Southeast Louisiana 52 43.2
35% 99 Memphis 28 35.5, 61 Southern Methodist 25 39.7
35% 74 Army 21 23.7, 48 Air Force 14 28.9
34% 241 North Carolina Central 38 24.6, 187 Norfolk State 36 31.0
34% 199 Sacred Heart 14 15.9, 174 Saint Francis - Pennsy 13 21.9
34% 177 Ohio 35 21.9, 110 Miami - Ohio 33 28.0
34% 170 Delaware 24 16.4, 96 William & Mary 3 24.4
33% 190 Western Carolina 43 23.0, 168 Furman 42 32.1
33% 113 Colorado 37 24.9, 49 Oregon State 34 32.1
33% 102 Eastern Michigan 52 23.6, 97 Toledo 49 31.9
32% 198 Cornell 15 17.4, 162 Pennsylvania 12 27.7
30% 255 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 33 17.3, 225 Grambling 26 27.9
26% 151 Illinois State 17 10.9, 33 Northern Iowa 10 25.3
22% 140 Arizona 10 19.0, 75 California 3 28.8
19% 82 Missouri State 38 28.3, 50 Southern Illinois 28 40.4
16% 134 Central Michigan 42 27.7, 95 Western Michigan 30 38.5
14% 108 Illinois 14 11.9, 47 Minnesota 6 27.5
12% 160 Portland State 30 15.5, 92 Weber State 18 33.4
11% 111 South Carolina 40 19.9, 15 Florida 17 34.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.59 52 0.89 13 1.02 27 0.94 16 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 120 82 88.5 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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