prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 66 Montana State 20 44.7, 193 Idaho 13 14.0
97% 37 Clemson 44 46.6, 236 Connecticut 7 0.7
97% 9 North Dakota State 49 41.8, 153 Youngstown State 17 14.8
97% 3 Alabama 59 67.3, 199 New Mexico State 3 9.8
96% 84 Southeast Louisiana 56 53.6, 249 Northwestern State 28 19.1
95% 165 McNeese State 44 44.8, 257 Houston Baptist 3 13.0
95% 63 Texas - San Antonio 27 44.3, 235 Southern Mississippi 17 12.4
95% 43 Harvard 23 36.2, 174 Pennsylvania 7 10.3
94% 172 Florida A&M 37 36.4, 251 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 16.0
94% 160 Albany 41 33.8, 250 Morgan State 14 7.7
94% 108 Western Michigan 45 44.9, 203 Akron 40 21.9
94% 72 Dartmouth 41 34.9, 201 Cornell 7 7.3
94% 59 Fresno State 34 36.7, 182 New Mexico 7 11.4
94% 30 Houston 37 46.1, 215 Temple 8 17.1
94% 5 Utah 38 39.8, 137 Arizona 29 15.9
93% 123 Monmouth 44 42.3, 214 Robert Morris 7 20.6
93% 71 Army 63 48.0, 254 Bucknell 10 9.5
93% 36 Villanova 33 34.4, 150 Stony Brook 14 11.1
93% 35 Kentucky 34 38.4, 190 Vanderbilt 17 12.9
93% 33 Florida 70 50.7, 155 Samford 52 24.8
93% 22 Boise State 23 36.0, 127 Wyoming 13 12.2
93% 10 Cincinnati 45 40.8, 126 South Florida 28 17.6
92% 196 Sacred Heart 27 30.6, 253 Wagner 0 9.1
92% 143 Maine 35 43.9, 239 Massachusetts 10 20.5
92% 48 Appalachian State 31 39.4, 159 South Alabama 7 16.1
92% 6 Wisconsin 35 31.3, 111 Northwestern 7 7.7
92% 2 Ohio State 59 42.5, 24 Purdue 31 18.8
90% 51 Southern Illinois 47 39.5, 178 Indiana State 21 20.0
90% 13 Oregon 38 37.4, 73 Washington State 24 21.5
89% 244 Marist 57 45.0, 258 Presbyterian 32 21.8
89% 8 Michigan State 40 42.5, 104 Maryland 21 22.4
89% 1 Georgia 41 37.8, 29 Tennessee 17 18.6
88% 82 Virginia Tech 48 36.0, 135 Duke 17 19.5
88% 60 Western Kentucky 42 42.1, 208 Rice 21 21.6
88% 16 Oklahoma State 63 36.4, 78 Texas Christian 17 20.7
86% 188 Jacksonville State 38 30.9, 248 Lamar 7 15.1
86% 133 Middle Tennessee State 50 37.9, 204 Florida International 10 23.2
86% 41 California - Los Angel 44 36.5, 109 Colorado 20 22.2
86% 19 James Madison 32 34.2, 110 William & Mary 22 19.8
83% 101 Weber State 62 32.0, 210 Southern Utah 0 12.6
82% 89 Kennesaw State 28 37.2, 187 North Alabama 24 19.9
81% 152 Tennessee - Martin 42 33.9, 229 Tennessee Tech 3 21.8
81% 138 Columbia 23 45.0, 202 Brown 17 29.2
79% 94 Toledo 49 32.0, 170 Bowling Green 17 19.9
77% 132 Louisiana Tech 42 35.1, 173 North Carolina - Charl 32 25.3
77% 113 Montana 30 33.7, 191 Northern Arizona 3 21.6
75% 81 Sam Houston State 42 32.6, 164 Eastern Kentucky 28 17.6
74% 179 Duquesne 31 31.0, 227 Central Connecticut 27 18.0
74% 146 Jackson State 21 33.6, 221 Southern 17 21.3
74% 122 East Tennessee State 56 41.2, 184 Western Carolina 35 29.8
71% 80 Princeton 35 35.0, 100 Yale 20 25.0
70% 120 Sacramento State 49 33.3, 147 Portland State 20 24.3
68% 243 Morehead State 36 34.0, 256 Stetson 35 22.0
68% 77 Louisiana - Lafayette 35 27.8, 142 Troy State 21 18.8
67% 223 Valparaiso 47 31.2, 255 Butler 3 21.6
67% 200 Bryant 52 37.1, 242 Long Island 7 23.4
67% 157 Austin Peay 36 31.5, 212 Tennessee State 7 25.1
67% 139 Richmond 51 22.5, 156 Delaware 27 14.4
67% 56 San Diego State 23 31.2, 70 Nevada - Reno 21 23.9
67% 52 Oregon State 35 38.0, 98 Stanford 14 29.4
67% 46 Kansas State 34 25.5, 75 West Virginia 17 17.4
67% 40 Iowa 27 23.6, 64 Minnesota 22 14.6
67% 18 Pittsburgh 30 44.6, 34 North Carolina 23 35.7
67% 11 Wake Forest 45 38.6, 26 North Carolina State 42 31.6
66% 207 Abilene Christian 29 45.2, 219 Tarleton State 3 30.9
66% 118 Central Michigan 54 37.7, 141 Kent State 30 31.1
66% 93 North Dakota 14 24.1, 129 Illinois State 7 16.7
66% 54 Louisville 41 30.5, 68 Syracuse 3 24.4
65% 49 Air Force 35 25.9, 90 Colorado State 21 21.2
64% 85 Utah State 48 26.8, 134 San Jose State 17 22.4
64% 55 Eastern Washington 38 40.1, 107 California - Davis 20 37.2
64% 15 Notre Dame 28 36.5, 42 Virginia 3 32.3
64% 14 Mississippi 29 29.7, 23 Texas A&M 19 25.2
63% 181 North Carolina A&T 27 23.8, 213 South Carolina State 17 20.5
63% 175 Charleston Southern 32 29.3, 185 Gardner - Webb 24 27.4
63% 116 Miami - Ohio 45 28.8, 112 Buffalo 18 25.9
63% 69 East Carolina 30 33.0, 99 Memphis 29 30.7
63% 62 Southern Methodist 55 34.8, 79 Central Florida 28 31.9
63% 57 Florida State 31 32.3, 44 Miami - Florida 28 30.2
62% 245 Lehigh 23 21.7, 220 Georgetown 9 19.8
62% 97 Holy Cross 52 34.9, 117 Fordham 24 33.1
61% 205 Alabama A&M 52 43.3, 216 Texas Southern 49 41.3
61% 166 North Texas 20 28.3, 154 Texas - El Paso 17 26.8
61% 106 Tulsa 20 29.3, 130 Tulane 13 27.6
59% 186 Georgia Southern 38 27.4, 195 Texas State - San Marc 30 26.0
58% 103 Missouri 31 33.5, 91 South Carolina 28 32.5
56% 169 Furman 37 27.1, 119 Virginia Military 31 26.2
55% 224 California Poly 32 28.6, 206 Idaho State 29 28.0
55% 121 Northern Illinois 30 33.6, 115 Ball State 29 32.9
55% 4 Michigan 21 26.4, 17 Penn State 17 25.8
54% 222 The Citadel 45 25.1, 211 Wofford 44 24.6
54% 209 Alcorn State 31 27.5, 198 Prairie View 29 26.9
51% 167 Rhode Island 28 25.5, 163 New Hampshire 3 25.4
50% 125 Incarnate Word 27 33.7, 149 Nicholls State 23 33.7
49% 218 Saint Thomas - Minneso 21 19.9, 252 Drake 14 20.2
41% 61 Missouri State 34 22.3, 53 Northern Iowa 27 23.9
39% 39 Arizona State 35 19.3, 58 Washington 30 21.0
38% 183 Arkansas State 27 39.5, 171 Northeast Louisiana 24 41.6
37% 131 Elon 37 23.7, 144 Towson 14 25.6
37% 27 Baylor 27 32.9, 12 Oklahoma 14 35.0
36% 247 Mississippi Valley Sta 44 21.5, 240 Alabama State 31 24.8
36% 234 Dayton 38 35.6, 180 Davidson 29 39.7
36% 233 Delaware State 28 27.7, 192 Norfolk State 26 32.4
36% 231 North Carolina Central 45 24.8, 228 Howard 27 27.9
36% 162 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 28.0, 128 Hawaii 13 31.3
36% 136 Stephen F. Austin 27 32.8, 140 Central Arkansas 14 36.6
36% 96 Boston College 41 22.5, 83 Georgia Tech 30 26.7
34% 151 Mercer 10 20.4, 92 Tennessee - Chattanoog 6 27.2
34% 145 Old Dominion 30 22.7, 95 Florida Atlantic 16 28.7
34% 114 Rutgers 38 20.1, 88 Indiana 3 26.7
34% 76 South Dakota 23 23.7, 20 South Dakota State 20 30.6
34% 38 Arkansas 16 28.3, 31 Louisiana State 13 34.1
33% 237 Murray State 28 26.7, 176 Southeast Missouri Sta 10 34.6
33% 225 Colgate 20 14.5, 189 Lafayette 13 24.6
32% 232 Bethune - Cookman 31 22.3, 226 Grambling 14 31.6
31% 47 Mississippi State 43 21.9, 21 Auburn 34 31.4
27% 86 Texas Tech 41 27.1, 7 Iowa State 38 38.5
24% 168 Ohio 34 27.8, 87 Eastern Michigan 26 39.9
17% 105 Alabama - Birmingham 21 20.1, 45 Marshall 14 33.3
14% 194 Hampton 28 26.3, 161 Campbell 21 37.5
9% 148 Georgia State 42 18.8, 50 Coastal Carolina 40 39.1
3% 197 Kansas 57 15.5, 28 Texas 56 52.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.37 52 0.95 11 1.10 17 1.03 30 0.99 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 122 93 91.3 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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