prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 38 Houston 45 48.2, 225 Connecticut 17 15.0
97% 37 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 43.4, 175 Northeast Louisiana 16 14.5
97% 2 Georgia 45 44.0, 134 Georgia Tech 0 9.4
95% 33 Appalachian State 27 44.2, 192 Georgia Southern 3 13.5
95% 21 Tennessee 45 47.3, 176 Vanderbilt 21 16.0
94% 72 Toledo 49 44.2, 208 Akron 14 14.9
94% 7 Utah 28 40.8, 106 Colorado 13 15.2
92% 69 West Virginia 34 38.5, 165 Kansas 28 20.0
92% 57 Air Force 48 36.3, 141 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 15.1
91% 53 Arizona State 38 35.2, 136 Arizona 15 15.1
91% 42 Miami - Florida 47 43.0, 170 Duke 10 23.4
91% 5 Notre Dame 45 37.1, 119 Stanford 14 13.8
90% 82 Central Florida 17 39.7, 140 South Florida 13 24.0
90% 80 Holy Cross 13 31.7, 187 Sacred Heart 10 13.3
90% 22 Baylor 27 38.5, 91 Texas Tech 24 21.7
90% 19 South Dakota State 56 36.4, 144 California - Davis 24 14.3
89% 15 Iowa State 48 40.8, 105 Texas Christian 14 22.1
88% 32 Arkansas 34 41.5, 98 Missouri 17 26.9
87% 70 Coastal Carolina 27 36.8, 173 South Alabama 21 21.9
87% 10 Cincinnati 35 37.2, 74 East Carolina 13 23.4
87% 3 Alabama 24 36.8, 40 Auburn 22 23.3
86% 29 Purdue 44 35.0, 122 Indiana 7 17.0
85% 113 Navy 38 31.7, 221 Temple 14 15.6
85% 96 Alabama - Birmingham 42 32.5, 163 Texas - El Paso 25 17.3
84% 85 Kennesaw State 48 40.4, 180 Davidson 21 22.4
82% 58 Fresno State 40 30.4, 150 San Jose State 9 17.2
78% 95 Utah State 35 30.5, 196 New Mexico 10 17.6
76% 133 Old Dominion 56 34.2, 181 North Carolina - Charl 34 23.5
75% 14 Pittsburgh 31 35.7, 86 Syracuse 14 24.3
69% 207 New Mexico State 44 38.9, 233 Massachusetts 27 30.9
69% 201 Southern Mississippi 37 30.2, 235 Florida International 17 19.4
69% 20 Oregon 38 39.4, 35 Oregon State 29 30.1
67% 123 Georgia State 37 28.9, 158 Troy State 10 21.4
67% 104 Southeast Louisiana 38 40.3, 164 Florida A&M 14 32.4
67% 51 Florida 24 34.1, 50 Florida State 21 26.6
67% 30 Clemson 30 26.8, 87 South Carolina 0 17.5
67% 23 California - Los Angel 42 33.4, 55 California 14 25.6
67% 18 Wake Forest 41 40.0, 83 Boston College 10 33.3
67% 6 Oklahoma State 37 33.4, 16 Oklahoma 33 23.7
66% 99 Memphis 33 32.3, 115 Tulane 28 26.0
66% 88 Illinois 47 23.5, 121 Northwestern 14 17.1
66% 12 North Carolina State 34 37.5, 41 North Carolina 30 30.2
64% 138 Ball State 20 32.8, 147 Buffalo 3 28.7
64% 89 Central Michigan 31 37.2, 112 Eastern Michigan 10 32.4
64% 64 Nevada - Reno 52 35.8, 107 Colorado State 10 32.7
64% 56 Texas 22 31.4, 46 Kansas State 17 28.0
63% 131 Incarnate Word 35 31.4, 118 Stephen F. Austin 28 29.4
63% 47 Eastern Washington 19 33.0, 43 Northern Iowa 9 30.0
60% 34 Brigham Young 35 35.1, 78 Southern California 31 33.7
40% 26 Michigan State 30 24.9, 11 Penn State 27 26.3
39% 28 Mississippi 31 32.0, 31 Mississippi State 21 33.4
38% 242 Grambling 29 23.0, 215 Southern 26 25.1
38% 110 Western Michigan 42 36.0, 117 Northern Illinois 21 37.8
37% 75 Army 31 28.0, 77 Liberty 16 30.3
36% 184 Bowling Green 21 28.3, 149 Ohio 10 32.9
36% 68 San Diego State 27 18.1, 25 Boise State 16 22.3
36% 63 Washington State 40 20.8, 62 Washington 13 25.3
36% 60 Louisiana State 27 20.1, 17 Texas A&M 24 23.4
35% 202 Rice 35 27.6, 161 Louisiana Tech 31 32.1
35% 195 Texas State - San Marc 24 31.8, 183 Arkansas State 22 35.6
35% 135 Kent State 48 27.7, 90 Miami - Ohio 47 33.4
35% 129 Middle Tennessee State 27 23.8, 132 Florida Atlantic 17 28.3
35% 73 Southern Illinois 22 30.1, 65 South Dakota 10 34.3
35% 49 Western Kentucky 53 31.6, 59 Marshall 21 36.8
35% 4 Michigan 42 32.4, 1 Ohio State 27 37.1
34% 108 Maryland 40 24.2, 100 Rutgers 16 30.0
34% 79 Virginia Tech 29 29.4, 61 Virginia 24 34.7
34% 54 Minnesota 23 18.6, 9 Wisconsin 13 25.2
34% 44 Iowa 28 19.7, 27 Nebraska 21 26.1
34% 36 Kentucky 52 25.7, 24 Louisville 21 32.2
33% 139 North Texas 45 29.2, 76 Texas - San Antonio 23 37.1
33% 126 Hawaii 38 23.6, 97 Wyoming 14 31.9
26% 157 Tennessee - Martin 32 26.9, 45 Missouri State 31 40.2
21% 102 Tulsa 34 26.8, 48 Southern Methodist 31 36.9
17% 241 Mississippi Valley Sta 24 21.2, 209 Prairie View 19 34.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.84 41 0.71 5 0.79 14 1.07 13 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 75 49 56.1 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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