prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 53 Fresno State 31 36.3, 159 Texas - El Paso 24 17.2
90% 26 Wake Forest 38 42.6, 113 Rutgers 10 26.3
83% 63 Coastal Carolina 47 40.3, 123 Northern Illinois 41 28.0
69% 2 Ohio State 48 38.8, 6 Utah 45 29.7
67% 98 Miami - Ohio 27 33.7, 130 North Texas 14 26.7
67% 90 Liberty 56 34.1, 118 Eastern Michigan 20 27.6
67% 87 Tulsa 30 32.5, 126 Old Dominion 17 22.9
67% 3 Alabama 27 35.1, 8 Cincinnati 6 26.0
67% 1 Georgia 34 29.6, 4 Michigan 11 20.3
66% 50 Louisiana - Lafayette 36 28.3, 77 Marshall 21 22.9
66% 14 Oklahoma 47 36.0, 27 Oregon 32 31.3
66% 13 Wisconsin 20 26.3, 40 Arizona State 13 19.3
65% 107 Wyoming 52 33.0, 136 Kent State 38 28.3
64% 69 San Diego State 38 27.9, 86 Texas - San Antonio 24 23.5
64% 7 North Dakota State 20 28.9, 10 James Madison 14 24.1
63% 65 Army 24 34.0, 92 Missouri 22 30.7
63% 41 Minnesota 18 24.7, 70 West Virginia 6 21.8
63% 22 Kentucky 20 25.6, 46 Iowa 17 22.2
63% 15 Clemson 20 24.8, 16 Iowa State 13 22.6
55% 42 Air Force 31 29.6, 55 Louisville 28 28.9
54% 119 Georgia State 51 27.0, 129 Ball State 20 26.5
52% 23 Baylor 21 28.8, 21 Mississippi 7 28.5
46% 51 Kansas State 42 23.0, 48 Louisiana State 20 23.5
38% 36 Western Kentucky 59 32.0, 45 Appalachian State 38 34.2
36% 103 Western Michigan 52 34.1, 49 Nevada - Reno 24 38.2
36% 44 Houston 17 28.1, 31 Auburn 13 31.9
36% 9 Oklahoma State 37 21.6, 5 Notre Dame 35 25.4
35% 67 Montana State 31 23.1, 17 South Dakota State 17 28.1
35% 28 Purdue 48 30.2, 25 Tennessee 45 35.2
34% 79 Central Florida 29 27.4, 47 Florida 17 34.1
34% 37 Arkansas 24 22.2, 11 Penn State 10 27.8
34% 24 Michigan State 31 28.6, 12 Pittsburgh 21 35.3
33% 210 South Carolina State 31 16.4, 157 Jackson State 10 25.5
33% 91 Maryland 54 26.3, 66 Virginia Tech 10 33.7
33% 62 Utah State 24 31.0, 38 Oregon State 13 37.9
32% 78 Texas Tech 34 28.1, 33 Mississippi State 7 36.3
31% 88 Central Michigan 24 25.1, 39 Washington State 21 34.8
29% 121 Middle Tennessee State 31 24.1, 71 Toledo 24 33.3
27% 94 Alabama - Birmingham 31 24.8, 35 Brigham Young 28 36.1
18% 108 South Carolina 38 25.4, 32 North Carolina 21 38.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.39 30 0.81 2 0.00 3 0.79 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 40 22 26.7 0.82
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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