11 Jan 2023: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2022 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  6  16  9.7  7.3 Georgia                 
  2  6  14 10.3  6.2 Ohio State              
  3  7  14  9.7  6.7 Alabama                 
  4  7  13  9.6  6.7 Michigan                
  5 15  13 10.0  6.2 Tennessee               
  6 10  11  9.0  6.7 Penn State              
  7 15  11  9.0  6.5 Utah                    
  8 17  10  9.0  6.4 Texas                   
  9 19  10  8.8  6.4 Louisiana State         
 10 25  10  9.5  5.8 Texas Christian         
 11 10   9  8.6  6.6 Clemson                 
 12 20   9  8.6  6.6 Kansas State            
 13 15   9  8.8  6.4 Notre Dame              
 14 14   9  9.1  6.1 Florida State           
 15 28   9  9.6  5.5 Southern California     
 16 26   9  9.0  5.9 Washington              
 17 26   8  9.0  5.9 Oregon                  
 18 43   8  8.5  6.4 Oregon State            
 19 26   8  8.6  6.2 Mississippi State       
 20 39   8  9.3  5.5 Wake Forest             
 21 66   7  7.7  7.0 Illinois                
 22 23   8  8.2  6.4 Louisville              
 23 35   7  8.0  6.6 Minnesota               
 24 40   8  8.9  5.7 Mississippi             
 25 39   7  8.6  6.0 Pittsburgh              
 26 44   7  8.9  5.7 Oklahoma                
 27 14   7  8.6  5.9 James Madison           
 28 40   7  8.1  6.4 Wisconsin               
 29 49   7  7.4  7.0 Iowa                    
 30 26   7  9.3  5.2 North Carolina          
 31 45   7  8.9  5.6 Texas Tech              
 32 44   7  8.4  6.0 Baylor                  
 33 46   7  8.8  5.6 Arkansas                
 34 26   6  8.1  6.2 Cincinnati              
 35 45   7  9.1  5.3 California - Los Angeles
 36 23   6  7.9  6.5 North Carolina State    
 37 51   6  8.5  5.8 Oklahoma State          
 38 54   6  8.5  5.8 Tulane                  
 39 40   6  7.8  6.5 Kentucky                
 40 38   6  8.6  5.7 South Carolina          
 41 38   6  8.0  6.2 Washington State        
 42 51   6  8.6  5.6 Florida                 
 43 46   6  8.2  6.0 Maryland                
 44 59   6  8.3  5.9 Auburn                  
 45 62   6  8.3  5.9 Michigan State          
 46 33   6  7.5  6.7 Iowa State              
 47 27   6  8.4  5.7 Central Florida         
 48 41   5  8.3  5.8 Fresno State            
 49 54   5  7.6  6.4 Texas A&M               
 50 48   5  8.1  6.0 Missouri                
 51 30   5  7.5  6.4 Air Force               
 52 57   5  8.5  5.5 Purdue                  
 53 40   5  8.3  5.6 Duke                    
 54 50   5  8.1  5.8 Syracuse                
 55 56   5  8.3  5.5 West Virginia           
 56 23   4  8.0  5.8 Boise State             
 57 45   5  8.7  5.1 Houston                 
 58 62   4  8.4  5.3 Texas - San Antonio     
 59 42   4  8.2  5.5 Brigham Young           
 60 74   4  8.9  4.8 Kansas                  
 61 47   4  8.4  5.3 Western Kentucky        
 62 50   4  8.8  4.9 Southern Methodist      
 63 33   4  8.2  5.4 Memphis                 
 64 16   4  8.3  5.3 Appalachian State       
 65 35   4  7.4  6.2 Marshall                
 66 49   4  8.3  5.3 East Carolina           
 67 77   3  7.9  5.5 South Alabama           
 68 52   3  7.7  5.7 Army                    
 69 54   3  7.6  5.8 California              
 70 56   3  7.3  6.1 Troy State              
 71 68   3  8.5  4.9 Arizona                 
 72 33   3  7.6  5.7 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 73 74   3  7.9  5.4 Nebraska                
 74 49   3  7.7  5.6 Alabama - Birmingham    
 75 50   3  7.7  5.6 Miami - Florida         
 76 60   2  7.9  5.3 Indiana                 
 77 56   2  8.1  5.1 Tulsa                   
 78 76   2  7.9  5.3 Vanderbilt              
 79 53   2  7.8  5.4 Arizona State           
 80 53   2  7.5  5.7 Navy                    
 81 39   2  7.8  5.4 Liberty                 
 82 25   2  8.2  4.9 Coastal Carolina        
 83 34   2  7.9  5.2 Toledo                  
 84 59   2  7.4  5.7 Virginia                
 85 31   2  7.1  5.9 San Diego State         
 86 42   2  8.1  5.0 Georgia State           
 87 46   2  8.0  5.0 Ohio                    
 88 45   2  7.4  5.6 Virginia Tech           
 89 60   2  7.6  5.4 Stanford                
 90 58   1  8.1  4.9 Kent State              
 91 56   1  7.6  5.4 San Jose State          
 92 55   1  7.3  5.6 Georgia Tech            
 93 53   1  7.9  4.9 Eastern Michigan        
 94 52   1  7.4  5.4 Wyoming                 
 95 50   1  7.2  5.6 Boston College          
 96 42   1  7.7  5.0 Middle Tennessee State  
 97 32   1  8.0  4.7 Georgia Southern        
 98 46   1  7.6  5.1 Florida Atlantic        
 99 41   0  7.5  5.2 Buffalo                 
100 55   0  7.0  5.7 Northwestern            
101 64   0  7.1  5.6 Rutgers                 
102 54   0  7.9  4.6 North Texas             
103 59   0  7.1  5.5 Miami - Ohio            
104 58   0  7.8  4.6 Nevada - Las Vegas      
105 36   0  7.5  5.0 Utah State              
106 46   0  7.1  5.3 Ball State              
107 46   0  7.5  4.9 Central Michigan        
108 52   0  7.1  5.3 Southern Mississippi    
109 37   0  6.9  5.4 Old Dominion            
110 45   0  6.8  5.5 Western Michigan        
111 48   0  7.7  4.4 Northern Illinois       
112 57  -1  7.1  5.1 Connecticut             
113 50  -1  7.1  5.1 Texas - El Paso         
114 51  -1  7.9  4.1 South Florida           
115 53  -1  7.3  4.8 New Mexico State        
116 48  -1  7.7  4.2 Arkansas State          
117 44  -1  6.8  5.2 Colorado State          
118 53  -1  7.3  4.7 Colorado                
119 56  -1  7.4  4.4 Northeast Louisiana     
120 57  -2  7.1  4.8 Bowling Green           
121 47  -2  7.0  4.9 Temple                  
122 49  -2  7.0  4.8 Texas State - San Marcos
123 47  -2  7.2  4.6 Rice                    
124 36  -2  7.7  4.1 Louisiana Tech          
125 32  -2  6.9  4.9 Nevada - Reno           
126 52  -3  7.1  4.5 Akron                   
127 42  -3  7.2  4.3 Hawaii                  
128 44  -3  6.2  5.3 New Mexico              
129 38  -4  7.3  4.0 North Carolina - Charlot
130 **  -5  8.1  2.8 Utah Tech               
131 31  -6  6.5  4.2 Florida International   
132 24  -7  6.3  4.2 Massachusetts           

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1 21   7  8.4  6.2 South Dakota State      
  2 24   7  8.2  6.3 North Dakota State      
  3 25   7  9.0  5.4 Montana State           
  4 33   6  8.8  5.4 Sacramento State        
  5 37   6  9.4  4.7 Incarnate Word          
  6 34   5  8.1  5.7 California - Davis      
  7 41   4  7.9  5.9 Weber State             
  8 39   4  7.9  5.8 Montana                 
  9 39   4  8.2  5.5 Holy Cross              
 10 45   3  7.7  5.7 Richmond                
 11 62   3  7.6  5.9 Princeton               
 12 40   3  8.0  5.4 Mercer                  
 13 49   3  8.5  4.9 Southeast Louisiana     
 14 33   3  7.7  5.7 Furman                  
 15 47   3  7.8  5.6 Northern Iowa           
 16 33   3  9.4  3.9 Fordham                 
 17 38   3  7.8  5.5 William & Mary          
 18 52   3  7.9  5.4 Yale                    
 19 59   2  7.7  5.5 Jacksonville State      
 20 57   2  7.6  5.6 Harvard                 
 21 53   2  7.4  5.8 Delaware                
 22 42   2  8.3  4.8 Samford                 
 23 42   2  8.0  5.0 North Dakota            
 24 56   2  8.1  4.9 Idaho                   
 25 48   1  7.6  5.2 Southeast Missouri State
 26 44   1  7.3  5.6 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 27 41   1  7.1  5.8 Elon                    
 28 28   1  7.7  5.2 Rhode Island            
 29 58   1  7.4  5.5 Jackson State           
 30 55   1  7.6  5.2 Southern Illinois       
 31 50   1  7.5  5.3 New Hampshire           
 32 58   0  7.7  4.9 Youngstown State        
 33 47   0  7.5  5.1 Missouri State          
 34 77   0  7.4  5.1 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 35 55   0  7.0  5.4 Austin Peay             
 36 58   0  7.1  5.4 Pennsylvania            
 37 84   0  6.6  5.9 Dartmouth               
 38 71   0  7.3  5.2 Villanova               
 39 43   0  8.1  4.3 Monmouth                
 40 58   0  7.6  4.8 Kennesaw State          
 41 58   0  7.1  5.3 Columbia                
 42 54   0  7.5  4.8 Tennessee - Martin      
 43 44   0  7.8  4.5 Eastern Kentucky        
 44 57   0  7.4  4.8 Central Arkansas        
 45 58   0  7.6  4.6 North Carolina Central  
 46 45   0  7.4  4.8 Campbell                
 47 45  -1  7.6  4.6 Albany                  
 48 75  -1  6.6  5.6 Sam Houston State       
 49 63  -1  6.5  5.7 Illinois State          
 50 28  -1  7.5  4.6 East Tennessee State    
 51 41  -1  7.6  4.4 Gardner - Webb          
 52 55  -1  6.8  5.2 South Dakota            
 53 50  -1  7.0  5.0 Towson                  
 54 74  -2  7.0  4.8 Abilene Christian       
 55 25  -2  7.7  4.0 Western Carolina        
 56 26  -2  7.1  4.7 Northern Arizona        
 57 56  -2  7.1  4.6 Maine                   
 58 52  -2  7.1  4.7 North Carolina A&T      
 59 61  -3  7.5  4.0 Eastern Washington      
 60 23  -3  7.2  4.4 Bryant                  
 61 62  -3  6.9  4.7 Southern Utah           
 62 49  -3  7.1  4.4 Stephen F. Austin       
 63 33  -3  6.7  4.8 Cornell                 
 64 30  -3  6.5  5.0 The Citadel             
 65 **  -3  7.0  4.5 Saint Thomas - Minnesota
 66 37  -3  7.2  4.2 Howard                  
 67 54  -3  6.5  4.9 Sacred Heart            
 68 37  -3  6.7  4.6 Wofford                 
 69 34  -3  6.6  4.8 Indiana State           
 70 34  -4  6.7  4.7 Colgate                 
 71 67  -4  6.7  4.6 Southern                
 72 94  -4  7.0  4.3 Davidson                
 73 24  -4  7.1  4.1 Portland State          
 74 69  -4  6.3  4.9 Duquesne                
 75 57  -4  6.5  4.8 Florida A&M             
 76 31  -4  7.3  3.9 Brown                   
 77 21  -4  6.5  4.7 Hampton                 
 78 51  -4  6.8  4.3 Prairie View            
 79 92  -4  7.2  3.8 Tarleton State          
 80 48  -5  6.0  5.0 Stony Brook             
 81 25  -5  6.5  4.5 Charleston Southern     
 82 21  -5  5.5  5.5 Lafayette               
 83 78  -5  6.4  4.6 San Diego               
 84 49  -5  6.6  4.3 Texas Southern          
 85 **  -5  8.0  2.7 Lindenwood              
 86 55  -5  6.3  4.6 McNeese State           
 87 17  -5  6.1  4.8 Lehigh                  
 88 49  -5  6.2  4.7 Alcorn State            
 89 39  -6  7.3  3.4 North Alabama           
 90 16  -6  6.4  4.3 Tennessee Tech          
 91 33  -6  5.8  4.9 Tennessee State         
 92 68  -6  6.5  4.1 Dayton                  
 93 43  -6  6.2  4.5 South Carolina State    
 94 38  -6  6.3  4.4 Morgan State            
 95 39  -6  6.5  4.1 Western Illinois        
 96 16  -6  6.2  4.4 Idaho State             
 97 **  -6  7.0  3.5 Dixie State             
 98 31  -6  6.9  3.6 California Poly         
 99 15  -6  6.6  4.0 Virginia Military       
100 48  -6  6.5  4.0 Nicholls State          
101 19  -6  6.6  3.9 Georgetown              
102 38  -6  5.6  5.0 Alabama State           
103 **  -7  8.2  2.1 Texas A&M-Commerce      
104 **  -7  8.2  2.1 Merrimack               
105 25  -7  6.6  3.9 Alabama A&M             
106 **  -7  7.3  2.9 Stonehill               
107 89  -7  6.0  4.4 Butler                  
108 39  -7  5.9  4.5 Central Connecticut     
109 26  -7  6.2  4.2 Eastern Illinois        
110 50  -7  6.2  4.2 Grambling               
111 68  -7  6.7  3.5 Long Island             
112 16  -7  6.1  4.2 Murray State            
113 18  -7  6.2  4.0 Northern Colorado       
114 58  -8  5.7  4.6 Drake                   
115 12  -8  5.5  4.7 Bucknell                
116 26  -8  5.8  4.3 Delaware State          
117 54  -8  6.2  3.8 Valparaiso              
118 31  -9  6.7  3.2 Bethune - Cookman       
119 16  -9  6.3  3.6 Norfolk State           
120 28  -9  6.2  3.7 Northwestern State      
121 49  -9  6.0  3.7 Stetson                 
122 42  -9  5.8  4.0 Marist                  
123 10  -9  5.7  4.0 Mississippi Valley State
124 19 -10  6.0  3.4 Lamar                   
125 30 -11  6.2  3.1 Morehead State          
126  8 -11  5.6  3.7 Wagner                  
127  7 -11  5.9  3.3 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
128  9 -11  5.2  4.0 Robert Morris           
129  7 -15  5.5  2.5 Presbyterian            
130  6 -15  5.1  2.8 Houston Baptist         

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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