prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 4 Michigan 56 65.5, 246 Hawaii 10 4.9
88% 62 Montana State 63 58.3, 248 Morehead State 13 13.8
88% 1 Georgia 33 68.6, 163 Samford 0 8.9
86% 12 James Madison 63 59.9, 203 Norfolk State 7 10.5
86% 3 Ohio State 45 67.8, 167 Arkansas State 12 17.0
83% 64 Maryland 56 50.8, 243 North Carolina - Charl 21 17.9
81% 30 California - Los Angel 45 47.6, 219 Alabama State 7 13.7
80% 70 San Diego State 38 47.1, 230 Idaho State 7 10.9
80% 7 Utah 73 57.9, 218 Southern Utah 7 8.5
79% 54 Southern Methodist 45 60.3, 255 Lamar 16 14.5
78% 140 Austin Peay 41 40.7, 245 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 6.9
78% 18 Michigan State 52 55.5, 213 Akron 0 11.3
77% 86 Toledo 55 51.9, 240 Massachusetts 10 13.7
77% 61 Villanova 38 54.4, 252 Long Island 21 12.7
77% 8 Oklahoma 33 61.7, 129 Kent State 3 24.5
75% 29 Miami - Florida 30 52.0, 181 Southern Mississippi 7 12.3
74% 11 North Dakota State 43 46.8, 164 North Carolina A&T 3 7.7
73% 105 Jacksonville State 34 38.3, 223 Murray State 3 14.6
73% 69 Texas Christian 59 56.7, 228 Tarleton State 17 20.7
72% 144 South Florida 42 41.9, 231 Howard 20 24.1
72% 143 Towson 29 40.6, 251 Morgan State 21 11.8
72% 43 Louisiana State 65 55.8, 217 Southern 17 20.3
72% 20 Mississippi 59 51.5, 166 Central Arkansas 3 22.1
72% 15 Penn State 46 46.9, 152 Ohio 10 14.5
71% 107 Rutgers 66 43.3, 256 Wagner 7 12.7
71% 56 Washington 52 41.7, 159 Portland State 6 17.2
71% 52 Coastal Carolina 31 52.8, 190 Gardner - Webb 27 24.8
71% 39 Minnesota 62 47.6, 169 Western Illinois 10 20.0
71% 33 North Carolina State 55 42.7, 174 Charleston Southern 3 14.9
71% 32 Purdue 56 41.5, 170 Indiana State 0 14.8
71% 31 Auburn 24 38.4, 149 San Jose State 16 10.1
71% 27 North Carolina 35 65.0, 113 Georgia State 28 49.2
71% 10 Clemson 35 44.1, 136 Furman 12 11.7
70% 114 Wyoming 33 41.5, 226 Northern Colorado 10 22.7
70% 97 Syracuse 48 33.9, 175 Connecticut 14 19.7
70% 42 Boise State 31 36.8, 172 New Mexico 14 13.9
69% 6 Cincinnati 63 39.5, 87 Kennesaw State 10 18.7
68% 150 Delaware 35 38.5, 237 Delaware State 9 17.1
68% 111 Miami - Ohio 31 37.6, 216 Robert Morris 14 18.4
68% 76 California 20 37.8, 122 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 24.1
68% 44 South Dakota State 24 37.6, 118 California - Davis 22 19.1
67% 168 Virginia Military 24 39.4, 253 Bucknell 14 22.0
67% 46 Louisiana - Lafayette 49 40.5, 119 Eastern Michigan 21 23.4
66% 142 Illinois State 28 38.1, 225 Valparaiso 21 20.0
66% 135 Youngstown State 49 45.7, 215 Dayton 16 30.8
66% 115 Georgia Tech 35 44.9, 176 Western Carolina 17 30.8
66% 109 Tulane 52 39.9, 209 Alcorn State 0 23.8
66% 81 Weber State 35 33.0, 145 Utah State 7 19.5
66% 2 Alabama 20 47.6, 23 Texas 19 32.2
65% 154 Troy State 38 40.1, 211 Alabama A&M 17 26.2
65% 131 Tennessee - Chattanoog 38 30.5, 241 Eastern Illinois 20 14.1
65% 117 William & Mary 37 36.7, 173 Campbell 21 20.9
65% 116 Elon 26 35.3, 200 Wofford 0 20.2
65% 102 Indiana 35 37.4, 171 Idaho 22 23.2
65% 92 East Carolina 39 37.5, 138 Old Dominion 21 24.2
65% 40 Mississippi State 39 37.9, 127 Arizona 17 23.3
65% 24 Arkansas 44 36.5, 85 South Carolina 30 22.1
64% 198 North Texas 59 37.0, 242 Texas Southern 27 27.8
64% 124 Richmond 31 31.3, 188 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 17.2
64% 50 Air Force 41 32.8, 100 Colorado 10 19.1
64% 9 Oklahoma State 34 34.9, 41 Arizona State 17 20.8
63% 233 Lindenwood 21 68.8, 259 Houston Baptist 20 50.7
63% 82 Montana 24 30.9, 106 South Dakota 7 18.6
63% 80 Tulsa 38 41.2, 120 Northern Illinois 35 28.9
63% 36 Kansas State 40 36.2, 75 Missouri 12 25.2
62% 160 Eastern Kentucky 59 33.8, 192 Bowling Green 57 23.7
61% 201 Texas - El Paso 20 25.5, 214 New Mexico State 13 22.4
61% 99 Holy Cross 37 37.7, 125 Buffalo 31 27.9
60% 177 Jackson State 16 30.9, 220 Tennessee State 3 22.6
59% 47 Southern California 41 36.4, 98 Stanford 28 30.2
58% 238 Grambling 47 27.1, 247 Northwestern State 21 20.9
58% 158 Louisiana Tech 52 37.6, 195 Stephen F. Austin 17 33.8
58% 95 Missouri State 35 35.7, 134 Tennessee - Martin 30 30.1
58% 89 Virginia Tech 27 28.8, 93 Boston College 10 23.2
57% 180 Texas State - San Marc 41 36.4, 206 Florida International 12 31.0
57% 146 Rhode Island 35 33.3, 196 Bryant 21 28.4
56% 191 South Carolina State 33 33.2, 227 Bethune - Cookman 9 28.6
56% 74 Liberty 21 32.0, 83 Alabama - Birmingham 14 27.8
55% 94 Memphis 37 29.9, 126 Navy 13 26.0
55% 45 Illinois 24 26.7, 59 Virginia 3 24.0
53% 16 Iowa State 10 24.2, 34 Iowa 7 22.1
51% 60 Texas Tech 33 37.4, 38 Houston 30 36.8
50% 156 New Hampshire 28 24.9, 162 Albany 23 25.2
50% 48 Oregon State 35 32.9, 63 Fresno State 32 33.2
49% 179 Sacred Heart 14 23.1, 199 Central Connecticut 10 23.8
49% 26 Brigham Young 26 31.2, 14 Baylor 20 32.0
48% 68 Oregon 70 39.0, 51 Eastern Washington 14 40.0
48% 21 Wake Forest 45 46.2, 25 Vanderbilt 25 47.2
47% 204 Abilene Christian 21 28.1, 194 Prairie View 13 30.1
45% 112 North Dakota 29 17.9, 78 Northern Iowa 27 22.4
44% 208 Temple 30 20.2, 212 Lafayette 14 24.8
44% 186 Rice 52 21.7, 189 McNeese State 10 26.6
44% 133 Middle Tennessee State 34 28.4, 130 Colorado State 19 32.8
44% 28 Kentucky 26 28.1, 37 Florida 16 32.7
43% 232 Lehigh 21 20.7, 222 Georgetown 19 25.9
43% 132 Ball State 30 30.2, 91 Western Michigan 29 35.2
42% 139 Florida Atlantic 42 40.6, 110 Southeast Louisiana 9 44.2
42% 22 Tennessee 34 35.0, 17 Pittsburgh 27 40.7
41% 224 California Poly 28 27.6, 207 San Diego 27 34.8
40% 123 Incarnate Word 55 32.4, 101 Nevada - Reno 41 37.4
39% 261 Presbyterian 21 43.4, 259 Houston Baptist 13 50.6
39% 178 Northeast Louisiana 35 27.2, 151 Nicholls State 7 35.8
39% 155 Fordham 52 35.0, 128 Monmouth 49 42.7
39% 88 Texas - San Antonio 41 27.0, 67 Army 38 36.1
38% 72 Louisville 20 29.3, 57 Central Florida 14 38.9
38% 49 Appalachian State 17 21.9, 19 Texas A&M 14 33.2
37% 202 The Citadel 20 25.7, 121 East Tennessee State 17 38.7
36% 205 Colgate 21 18.7, 137 Maine 18 32.7
35% 157 South Alabama 38 24.1, 90 Central Michigan 24 38.5
34% 58 Washington State 17 17.6, 13 Wisconsin 14 34.0
30% 187 Southeast Missouri Sta 34 22.6, 84 Southern Illinois 31 44.1
30% 184 Northern Arizona 10 23.9, 108 Sam Houston State 3 43.6
30% 147 Kansas 55 20.8, 55 West Virginia 42 44.0
29% 153 Duke 31 22.5, 66 Northwestern 23 39.9
29% 79 Marshall 26 16.8, 5 Notre Dame 21 41.6
28% 161 Georgia Southern 45 20.7, 53 Nebraska 42 41.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
32 0.79 42 1.18 34 1.13 8 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 116 82 76.5 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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