prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 20 Wisconsin 66 49.6, 243 New Mexico State 7 0.0
92% 4 Michigan 59 68.7, 227 Connecticut 0 5.3
92% 2 Alabama 63 67.8, 184 Northeast Louisiana 7 2.1
91% 19 Tennessee 63 57.9, 208 Akron 6 13.5
90% 3 Ohio State 77 51.6, 84 Toledo 21 16.1
89% 8 Clemson 48 53.4, 159 Louisiana Tech 20 10.4
88% 169 Western Carolina 77 65.0, 261 Presbyterian 21 29.8
88% 94 Virginia Tech 27 37.7, 210 Wofford 7 12.8
88% 91 Austin Peay 28 41.1, 222 Alabama A&M 3 14.6
88% 88 Rutgers 16 37.1, 211 Temple 14 12.4
88% 65 Virginia 16 40.1, 141 Old Dominion 14 20.5
88% 56 Coastal Carolina 38 43.0, 131 Buffalo 26 24.7
88% 54 Washington State 38 40.2, 139 Colorado State 7 17.3
88% 52 Mercer 17 44.1, 198 The Citadel 0 12.2
88% 49 Florida 31 46.4, 156 South Florida 28 17.8
88% 18 Baylor 42 48.6, 180 Texas State - San Marc 7 9.8
88% 15 Texas 41 47.7, 83 Texas - San Antonio 20 22.6
88% 6 Cincinnati 38 40.0, 114 Miami - Ohio 17 15.2
88% 5 Oklahoma State 63 72.2, 254 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 13.5
87% 144 Illinois State 35 35.0, 242 Eastern Illinois 7 9.3
87% 108 South Dakota 38 38.4, 212 California Poly 21 17.3
87% 22 Wake Forest 37 45.0, 78 Liberty 36 28.5
86% 39 Iowa 27 34.5, 130 Nevada - Reno 0 11.3
86% 23 Pittsburgh 34 45.3, 102 Western Michigan 13 29.7
86% 21 Mississippi 42 39.3, 119 Georgia Tech 0 23.0
86% 10 Oklahoma 49 58.2, 151 Nebraska 14 29.1
86% 1 Georgia 48 37.4, 86 South Carolina 7 4.5
85% 45 South Dakota State 45 57.5, 259 Butler 17 8.5
85% 34 California - Los Angel 32 44.7, 150 South Alabama 31 18.9
84% 81 Missouri 34 42.9, 202 Abilene Christian 17 20.3
84% 17 Iowa State 43 44.5, 152 Ohio 10 13.9
84% 13 Utah 35 36.3, 80 San Diego State 7 14.1
81% 110 Central Michigan 41 43.1, 252 Bucknell 0 17.4
81% 85 Nevada - Las Vegas 58 37.9, 181 North Texas 27 17.9
80% 71 Montana 49 31.8, 175 Indiana State 14 11.1
79% 134 Monmouth 45 42.2, 213 Georgetown 6 23.8
78% 89 East Carolina 49 37.1, 168 Campbell 10 23.6
78% 25 Arkansas 38 42.9, 93 Missouri State 27 27.7
76% 7 Notre Dame 24 33.3, 68 California 17 13.9
75% 124 Tennessee - Chattanoog 41 37.7, 190 North Alabama 14 19.8
75% 48 Appalachian State 32 41.3, 147 Troy State 28 17.0
74% 188 Southern Mississippi 64 37.1, 251 Northwestern State 10 21.3
73% 193 Saint Francis - Pennsy 27 37.4, 258 Wagner 7 18.4
73% 135 Kent State 63 48.6, 249 Long Island 10 27.8
73% 126 Richmond 30 31.3, 231 Lehigh 6 15.5
73% 43 Southern California 45 41.8, 66 Fresno State 17 27.4
73% 35 Minnesota 49 35.8, 116 Colorado 7 13.6
73% 26 Kentucky 31 41.8, 132 Youngstown State 0 21.5
72% 165 Southeast Missouri Sta 42 39.0, 183 Nicholls State 16 27.0
72% 162 New Mexico 27 27.6, 214 Texas - El Paso 10 14.4
72% 127 Middle Tennessee State 49 34.2, 220 Tennessee State 6 19.9
72% 99 Boston College 38 31.2, 153 Maine 17 20.3
72% 95 Memphis 44 44.7, 160 Arkansas State 32 29.9
72% 67 Princeton 39 56.3, 257 Stetson 14 14.7
72% 63 Dartmouth 35 51.7, 225 Valparaiso 13 14.2
71% 164 Jackson State 66 31.2, 226 Grambling 24 13.7
71% 112 Southeast Louisiana 70 41.5, 209 Central Connecticut 6 25.4
71% 103 Incarnate Word 31 43.9, 200 Prairie View 14 30.7
71% 74 West Virginia 65 32.7, 157 Towson 7 20.8
71% 50 Boise State 30 35.7, 133 Tennessee - Martin 7 20.3
71% 30 North Carolina State 27 37.6, 58 Texas Tech 14 27.0
70% 158 Ball State 31 31.5, 230 Murray State 0 21.8
70% 155 Eastern Kentucky 40 38.2, 187 Charleston Southern 17 25.1
70% 149 Samford 33 43.2, 236 Tennessee Tech 28 32.5
70% 146 Fordham 48 41.4, 166 Albany 45 31.2
70% 117 William & Mary 34 29.4, 205 Lafayette 7 14.9
70% 111 Elon 30 41.0, 192 Gardner - Webb 24 20.3
70% 109 California - Davis 43 37.6, 204 San Diego 13 21.3
70% 107 Southern Illinois 31 34.6, 174 Northwestern 24 20.8
69% 92 Alabama - Birmingham 35 35.0, 154 Georgia Southern 21 23.4
68% 239 Northern Colorado 21 29.7, 255 Lamar 14 20.2
68% 140 Columbia 38 38.5, 248 Marist 3 20.0
66% 113 North Dakota 27 29.0, 167 Northern Arizona 24 21.6
64% 161 Pennsylvania 25 30.6, 197 Colgate 14 18.3
64% 148 Duke 49 29.6, 177 North Carolina A&T 20 25.0
64% 28 Texas A&M 17 28.3, 40 Miami - Florida 9 22.9
63% 171 Idaho 42 29.1, 250 Drake 14 21.5
62% 64 Vanderbilt 38 39.6, 122 Northern Illinois 28 34.9
62% 42 Louisiana State 31 33.5, 38 Mississippi State 16 27.7
61% 241 Delaware State 35 26.6, 256 Houston Baptist 19 18.1
61% 72 Central Florida 40 32.8, 104 Florida Atlantic 14 29.0
61% 11 Oregon 41 46.2, 27 Brigham Young 20 41.0
60% 185 Brown 44 42.1, 199 Bryant 38 36.9
55% 196 Hampton 17 36.8, 206 Norfolk State 7 34.7
55% 186 Cornell 28 32.6, 172 Virginia Military 22 29.8
54% 87 Indiana 33 38.9, 90 Western Kentucky 30 37.6
52% 101 Holy Cross 38 36.5, 100 Yale 14 34.6
50% 55 Maryland 34 37.9, 51 Southern Methodist 27 37.7
49% 57 Florida State 35 27.2, 69 Louisville 31 27.3
45% 16 Penn State 41 24.8, 29 Auburn 12 26.9
44% 137 Furman 27 25.7, 121 East Tennessee State 14 30.3
39% 98 Sacramento State 37 20.0, 70 Northern Iowa 21 28.6
39% 82 Syracuse 32 25.7, 37 Purdue 29 29.2
39% 46 Oregon State 68 30.4, 44 Montana State 28 35.0
38% 244 Hawaii 24 26.4, 240 Duquesne 14 30.4
38% 79 Tulsa 54 24.0, 75 Jacksonville State 17 30.1
37% 221 Alcorn State 30 20.8, 195 McNeese State 19 27.6
37% 203 Southern Utah 17 33.1, 176 Western Illinois 10 38.1
37% 73 Army 49 26.7, 61 Villanova 10 32.4
37% 53 Washington 39 22.5, 14 Michigan State 28 28.4
36% 136 Delaware 42 23.4, 129 Rhode Island 21 27.7
32% 246 Texas Southern 24 32.9, 218 Southern 0 45.3
30% 173 Central Arkansas 31 32.4, 128 Idaho State 16 47.1
30% 96 Wyoming 17 32.1, 36 Air Force 14 42.4
29% 115 Kansas 48 33.5, 47 Houston 30 48.5
28% 247 Morgan State 24 12.0, 179 Sacred Heart 9 26.6
27% 219 North Carolina Central 45 16.8, 145 New Hampshire 27 37.5
21% 97 Tulane 17 18.5, 32 Kansas State 10 35.0
17% 123 Eastern Michigan 30 16.7, 33 Arizona State 21 41.6
15% 189 Bowling Green 34 19.5, 60 Marshall 31 43.1
12% 245 Massachusetts 20 14.2, 143 Stony Brook 3 44.8
12% 215 North Carolina - Charl 42 23.9, 120 Georgia State 41 47.6
12% 194 Rice 33 12.4, 41 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 44.2
12% 125 Arizona 31 14.7, 12 North Dakota State 28 44.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.23 29 0.96 35 1.14 37 0.97 4 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 114 88 84.8 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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