prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 84 Liberty 42 43.6, 241 Massachusetts 24 13.7
92% 56 Incarnate Word 56 64.0, 258 Lamar 17 12.4
92% 15 Cincinnati 28 51.7, 168 South Florida 24 14.0
92% 1 Georgia 42 42.0, 65 Auburn 10 3.1
91% 70 Montana State 37 51.9, 221 Idaho State 6 13.1
91% 48 Holy Cross 57 47.4, 243 Bucknell 0 3.2
91% 23 North Dakota State 31 45.2, 191 Indiana State 26 9.2
90% 81 Princeton 23 31.6, 209 Lafayette 2 7.8
90% 3 Alabama 24 37.8, 32 Texas A&M 20 9.4
89% 206 Valparaiso 41 51.0, 261 Presbyterian 21 20.3
89% 60 Coastal Carolina 28 43.9, 169 Northeast Louisiana 21 23.7
88% 196 Alcorn State 30 37.4, 259 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 14.9
88% 175 Northern Arizona 31 34.8, 207 California Poly 29 21.3
88% 167 Ohio 55 40.5, 213 Akron 34 23.6
88% 139 Kennesaw State 40 42.3, 205 North Alabama 34 18.4
88% 136 Columbia 28 46.9, 251 Wagner 7 8.7
88% 135 San Diego State 16 45.5, 242 Hawaii 14 14.5
88% 129 Samford 28 37.0, 216 Wofford 14 18.0
88% 118 Southeast Missouri Sta 34 43.6, 236 Tennessee Tech 20 13.9
88% 99 Elon 27 37.5, 192 Towson 10 16.8
88% 57 Sacramento State 55 55.5, 239 Northern Colorado 7 11.3
88% 45 Florida 24 42.0, 66 Missouri 17 25.6
88% 12 Mississippi 52 37.6, 83 Vanderbilt 28 21.5
88% 10 Clemson 31 40.0, 124 Boston College 3 18.1
88% 7 James Madison 42 53.1, 140 Arkansas State 20 20.7
88% 5 Oklahoma State 41 49.2, 50 Texas Tech 31 27.4
88% 4 Michigan 31 42.5, 92 Indiana 10 20.1
88% 2 Ohio State 49 46.2, 46 Michigan State 20 21.8
86% 76 South Dakota State 28 33.7, 120 South Dakota 3 19.1
84% 73 Mercer 49 44.7, 148 Western Carolina 6 26.5
84% 69 Weber State 45 45.6, 199 Eastern Washington 21 22.7
84% 20 Wake Forest 45 47.3, 95 Army 10 28.3
83% 138 Tennessee - Martin 45 36.2, 248 Murray State 16 14.4
83% 132 East Tennessee State 44 34.7, 197 Virginia Military 21 21.7
83% 90 Fordham 40 47.7, 222 Lehigh 28 31.0
83% 52 Pittsburgh 45 32.9, 137 Virginia Tech 29 16.3
82% 155 Pennsylvania 59 33.0, 232 Georgetown 28 15.7
81% 224 Eastern Illinois 35 40.2, 254 Northwestern State 27 23.8
79% 8 Southern California 30 39.4, 36 Washington State 14 25.2
78% 142 Furman 21 27.2, 202 The Citadel 10 15.3
77% 97 Troy State 27 31.7, 153 Southern Mississippi 10 18.8
77% 72 Harvard 35 35.5, 182 Cornell 28 16.8
76% 37 Wisconsin 42 30.2, 145 Northwestern 7 13.2
74% 133 Jackson State 26 27.9, 211 Alabama State 12 10.0
72% 220 Nicholls State 19 34.1, 260 Houston Baptist 17 18.0
72% 152 Campbell 34 36.4, 201 Charleston Southern 28 23.7
72% 109 Monmouth 38 42.2, 157 Albany 31 30.3
72% 35 Oregon 49 42.8, 86 Arizona 22 33.5
72% 34 Oregon State 28 41.1, 114 Stanford 27 29.6
72% 13 Texas Christian 38 45.1, 51 Kansas 31 34.0
71% 219 Tennessee State 41 31.9, 238 Bethune - Cookman 17 24.9
71% 193 Brown 27 39.1, 245 Central Connecticut 20 32.2
71% 180 Stephen F. Austin 41 29.9, 198 Abilene Christian 38 19.6
71% 170 New Hampshire 24 27.5, 195 Stony Brook 14 17.1
71% 115 Buffalo 38 37.3, 162 Bowling Green 7 28.4
71% 101 Boise State 40 31.3, 112 Fresno State 20 20.5
71% 11 Notre Dame 28 34.6, 40 Brigham Young 20 24.7
70% 223 Texas Southern 24 36.8, 256 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 17 29.3
70% 106 Wyoming 27 27.1, 165 New Mexico 14 22.1
70% 62 Louisville 34 27.9, 94 Virginia 17 22.8
70% 58 Central Florida 41 36.5, 55 Southern Methodist 19 30.4
69% 75 Tulane 24 31.5, 80 East Carolina 9 26.5
66% 28 North Carolina State 19 29.4, 43 Florida State 17 23.6
66% 18 Illinois 9 18.1, 47 Iowa 6 11.3
65% 194 Connecticut 33 30.2, 227 Florida International 12 25.2
65% 88 William & Mary 27 27.0, 98 Delaware 21 21.5
64% 190 Gardner - Webb 48 29.3, 244 Robert Morris 0 24.4
63% 166 Louisiana Tech 41 32.8, 173 Texas - El Paso 31 28.8
63% 100 Toledo 52 38.1, 130 Northern Illinois 32 34.7
62% 19 Mississippi State 40 35.2, 25 Arkansas 17 31.8
61% 189 Maine 31 30.1, 210 Hampton 24 26.9
61% 96 Alabama - Birmingham 41 29.4, 85 Middle Tennessee State 14 26.8
60% 131 Georgia State 41 33.4, 123 Georgia Southern 33 30.6
60% 128 Miami - Ohio 27 31.0, 103 Kent State 24 29.2
59% 246 Alabama A&M 37 31.6, 237 Grambling 31 29.5
57% 24 North Carolina 27 44.2, 53 Miami - Florida 24 42.5
56% 217 San Diego 22 25.0, 250 Drake 10 22.9
51% 9 Tennessee 40 33.1, 21 Louisiana State 13 33.0
48% 78 Texas - San Antonio 31 38.6, 71 Western Kentucky 28 39.2
48% 17 Texas 49 32.6, 16 Oklahoma 0 33.1
47% 105 San Jose State 40 28.3, 68 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 29.2
45% 113 Yale 24 29.5, 104 Dartmouth 21 30.7
42% 31 Kansas State 10 18.8, 38 Iowa State 9 20.9
40% 87 Houston 33 33.6, 82 Memphis 32 36.1
38% 42 Purdue 31 29.9, 41 Maryland 29 33.2
37% 231 Saint Thomas - Minneso 27 33.2, 179 Davidson 16 40.5
37% 111 North Dakota 35 28.4, 122 Youngstown State 30 32.1
36% 144 Georgia Tech 23 24.2, 67 Duke 20 28.7
35% 127 Navy 51 24.9, 63 Tulsa 21 30.9
34% 255 Marist 45 21.8, 252 Stetson 31 26.6
33% 233 Lindenwood 52 42.7, 151 Central Arkansas 49 61.6
33% 154 Eastern Michigan 45 29.9, 159 Western Michigan 23 34.5
33% 125 Nebraska 14 28.5, 110 Rutgers 13 34.5
31% 119 Southern Illinois 38 32.1, 116 Missouri State 21 36.3
29% 249 Norfolk State 24 23.5, 212 Morgan State 21 33.0
29% 208 Tarleton State 42 27.4, 181 Southern Utah 40 38.6
29% 161 Illinois State 23 15.1, 102 Northern Iowa 21 26.7
29% 158 Ball State 17 30.0, 121 Central Michigan 16 37.7
29% 108 Arizona State 45 22.6, 29 Washington 38 32.3
29% 59 South Carolina 24 22.0, 33 Kentucky 14 31.9
28% 257 Butler 31 24.0, 203 Dayton 0 40.2
28% 247 Florida A&M 20 20.6, 185 South Carolina State 14 36.8
28% 215 Southern 45 21.5, 184 Prairie View 13 30.4
25% 30 California - Los Angel 42 29.8, 6 Utah 32 40.0
24% 171 Colorado State 17 22.6, 143 Nevada - Reno 14 33.7
14% 164 Utah State 34 17.5, 54 Air Force 27 34.4
12% 174 Texas State - San Marc 36 17.8, 27 Appalachian State 24 44.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.81 26 0.89 32 0.90 31 1.08 9 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 78 80.0 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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