prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 76 Princeton 35 48.6, 188 Brown 19 20.7
92% 2 Georgia 55 51.5, 87 Vanderbilt 0 7.2
91% 107 Tennessee - Chattanoog 41 39.9, 210 Virginia Military 13 14.2
90% 116 Yale 29 44.1, 245 Bucknell 9 8.4
89% 205 San Diego 28 50.9, 261 Presbyterian 3 13.2
89% 45 Central Florida 70 39.4, 190 Temple 13 6.0
88% 240 Alabama A&M 34 39.4, 257 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 31 26.3
88% 206 South Carolina State 36 36.2, 260 Houston Baptist 0 9.3
88% 186 Davidson 28 47.7, 253 Morehead State 26 23.6
88% 155 Austin Peay 52 36.2, 246 Murray State 17 8.7
88% 145 Campbell 41 40.3, 256 Robert Morris 10 11.6
88% 130 Central Michigan 28 42.2, 216 Akron 21 24.6
88% 115 Southern Illinois 30 46.1, 215 Western Illinois 7 22.1
88% 112 California - Davis 56 33.6, 175 Northern Arizona 27 17.1
88% 111 Jackson State 48 46.2, 247 Bethune - Cookman 8 15.2
88% 94 Buffalo 34 43.9, 238 Massachusetts 7 16.0
88% 90 Troy State 17 32.6, 157 Texas State - San Marc 14 17.5
88% 84 Jacksonville State 47 48.7, 208 North Alabama 31 19.6
88% 78 South Alabama 41 37.6, 169 Northeast Louisiana 34 18.6
88% 77 Alabama - Birmingham 34 47.4, 187 North Carolina - Charl 20 21.1
88% 74 Montana State 37 52.7, 243 Northern Colorado 14 15.0
88% 72 Harvard 41 46.3, 224 Howard 25 16.1
88% 70 Texas - San Antonio 30 47.3, 234 Florida International 10 19.1
88% 57 Incarnate Word 49 55.3, 236 Nicholls State 14 26.0
88% 38 Purdue 43 42.6, 128 Nebraska 37 24.1
88% 11 Mississippi 48 37.3, 61 Auburn 34 17.8
87% 54 Sacramento State 52 55.1, 201 Eastern Washington 28 27.3
85% 220 Alabama State 24 27.5, 259 Mississippi Valley Sta 9 8.7
84% 36 Washington 49 44.5, 103 Arizona 39 28.4
82% 5 Texas 24 32.2, 37 Iowa State 21 14.7
81% 59 Mercer 55 33.5, 133 East Tennessee State 33 18.2
80% 141 Youngstown State 48 36.4, 185 Indiana State 42 20.8
80% 89 Fordham 45 49.7, 204 Stony Brook 14 30.1
80% 21 North Carolina 38 48.9, 79 Duke 35 33.2
78% 63 Weber State 42 39.8, 164 Portland State 7 20.5
75% 83 Liberty 21 38.5, 172 Gardner - Webb 20 24.6
72% 162 Saint Francis - Pennsy 57 40.7, 241 Long Island 7 23.1
72% 148 Ball State 25 30.4, 180 Connecticut 21 20.2
72% 139 Furman 47 37.1, 167 Western Carolina 40 25.1
72% 66 Tulane 45 34.2, 147 South Florida 31 24.0
72% 33 Oklahoma 52 42.8, 40 Kansas 42 29.9
72% 4 Michigan 41 35.3, 14 Penn State 17 22.8
71% 177 Cornell 19 28.6, 218 Lehigh 15 18.4
71% 117 Army 42 32.3, 184 Colgate 17 19.7
71% 92 Toledo 52 37.4, 105 Kent State 31 29.7
71% 65 Air Force 42 35.3, 106 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 25.8
71% 49 Maryland 38 32.7, 95 Indiana 33 25.8
70% 179 Stephen F. Austin 41 42.5, 192 Tarleton State 24 30.9
70% 67 Southern Methodist 40 32.2, 100 Navy 34 25.1
70% 8 Clemson 34 32.4, 35 Florida State 28 24.3
69% 178 North Carolina Central 59 34.7, 213 Morgan State 20 25.4
67% 144 Florida Atlantic 17 34.1, 142 Rice 14 28.5
67% 64 Miami - Florida 20 27.1, 131 Virginia Tech 14 21.6
66% 237 Dayton 24 32.5, 252 Marist 7 28.2
65% 207 Tennessee State 30 31.8, 231 Tennessee Tech 14 25.9
65% 81 East Carolina 47 34.5, 88 Memphis 45 30.5
65% 16 Utah 43 35.4, 9 Southern California 42 31.0
64% 232 Saint Thomas - Minneso 26 31.2, 250 Drake 14 23.6
64% 211 Florida A&M 20 32.4, 242 Grambling 16 25.9
64% 156 Illinois State 12 23.7, 160 South Dakota 10 18.5
64% 143 Utah State 17 30.2, 171 Colorado State 13 26.1
63% 39 Oregon State 24 30.8, 28 Washington State 10 28.1
62% 189 Sacred Heart 40 53.6, 230 Stonehill 27 40.6
62% 93 Richmond 20 33.0, 96 Villanova 10 30.2
60% 217 Wofford 31 19.6, 200 The Citadel 16 17.3
60% 125 Pennsylvania 34 24.5, 136 Columbia 14 22.2
57% 193 Abilene Christian 21 27.0, 181 Southern Utah 18 25.2
57% 73 Western Kentucky 35 36.4, 98 Middle Tennessee State 17 35.1
56% 137 Southern Mississippi 20 33.3, 126 Arkansas State 19 32.0
55% 194 Southern 21 28.9, 191 Alcorn State 17 27.8
55% 18 Illinois 26 19.4, 20 Minnesota 14 17.7
50% 255 Northwestern State 37 28.9, 260 Houston Baptist 10 28.8
50% 146 Sam Houston State 25 28.5, 154 Eastern Kentucky 17 28.5
49% 202 Lindenwood 37 50.5, 221 Eastern Illinois 34 51.4
48% 119 Rhode Island 17 27.5, 101 Elon 10 28.2
43% 42 Syracuse 24 24.8, 25 North Carolina State 9 26.7
43% 24 Louisiana State 45 25.9, 48 Florida 35 27.4
42% 124 Fresno State 17 23.8, 69 San Jose State 10 26.7
41% 41 Kentucky 27 26.4, 17 Mississippi State 17 28.6
40% 239 Delaware State 28 26.7, 244 Norfolk State 7 29.2
39% 182 North Texas 47 38.8, 159 Louisiana Tech 27 41.7
38% 47 West Virginia 43 25.9, 19 Baylor 40 29.5
38% 13 Texas Christian 43 38.0, 7 Oklahoma State 40 42.5
37% 140 Northern Illinois 39 37.2, 138 Eastern Michigan 10 40.1
37% 58 Michigan State 34 22.9, 27 Wisconsin 28 27.1
34% 235 Idaho State 40 29.2, 197 California Poly 31 33.0
34% 85 Louisiana - Lafayette 23 21.6, 75 Marshall 13 26.3
34% 31 Arkansas 52 32.6, 34 Brigham Young 35 37.0
32% 6 Tennessee 52 32.6, 3 Alabama 49 39.4
30% 166 Central Arkansas 51 23.1, 149 Kennesaw State 24 33.6
30% 150 Ohio 33 30.9, 165 Western Michigan 14 36.7
29% 212 Charleston Southern 24 26.4, 198 Bryant 23 35.9
28% 209 Hampton 38 24.8, 163 Albany 37 38.3
28% 173 Bowling Green 17 23.3, 129 Miami - Ohio 13 33.0
25% 168 Colorado 20 15.5, 62 California 13 31.6
24% 195 Maine 38 25.5, 102 Monmouth 28 39.1
21% 227 New Mexico State 21 17.1, 170 New Mexico 9 30.5
19% 68 South Dakota State 23 21.2, 46 North Dakota State 21 34.8
17% 226 Hawaii 31 22.6, 161 Nevada - Reno 16 38.2
16% 251 Butler 26 19.3, 196 Valparaiso 25 35.2
13% 176 New Hampshire 14 18.2, 114 Dartmouth 0 34.8
12% 158 Old Dominion 49 20.4, 56 Coastal Carolina 21 42.1
12% 135 Idaho 30 19.3, 55 Montana 23 41.8
12% 113 Georgia Southern 45 22.1, 10 James Madison 38 46.2
12% 108 Stanford 16 15.3, 15 Notre Dame 14 42.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.96 26 0.95 24 0.91 36 0.90 4 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105 72 77.7 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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