prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 58 Incarnate Word 73 67.5, 260 Houston Baptist 20 8.1
92% 70 California - Davis 43 47.4, 224 Idaho State 3 12.4
92% 62 Southeast Louisiana 47 60.9, 256 Lamar 31 12.4
92% 57 North Dakota State 56 48.8, 237 Western Illinois 17 11.0
92% 1 Ohio State 21 58.9, 134 Northwestern 7 13.2
91% 97 Fresno State 55 43.3, 196 Hawaii 13 18.9
91% 95 Samford 34 51.8, 241 Virginia Military 15 17.3
91% 67 Montana 57 49.1, 218 California Poly 0 12.6
91% 51 Holy Cross 42 44.4, 217 Lehigh 14 8.8
91% 5 Michigan 52 43.5, 126 Rutgers 17 10.6
90% 83 Jackson State 41 42.0, 214 Texas Southern 14 15.7
89% 171 North Carolina A&T 49 44.0, 255 Norfolk State 24 18.3
89% 12 Utah 45 49.0, 82 Arizona 20 22.8
88% 234 Dayton 52 43.4, 261 Presbyterian 28 15.5
88% 226 Charleston Southern 34 33.5, 259 Robert Morris 21 13.0
88% 183 Davidson 56 41.3, 250 Stetson 48 20.1
88% 162 Connecticut 27 36.2, 243 Massachusetts 10 12.0
88% 115 Yale 69 43.6, 181 Brown 17 23.7
88% 81 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 32.6, 211 The Citadel 21 10.1
88% 74 Fordham 59 51.7, 239 Bucknell 17 24.2
88% 71 San Jose State 28 35.5, 197 Colorado State 16 10.3
88% 68 Princeton 17 34.8, 176 Dartmouth 14 14.3
88% 66 Montana State 41 40.4, 173 Northern Arizona 38 21.4
88% 32 Cincinnati 20 37.7, 109 Navy 10 16.7
88% 13 Oregon 49 47.8, 166 Colorado 10 18.7
88% 10 Penn State 45 39.6, 100 Indiana 14 20.4
88% 7 Southern California 41 44.3, 103 California 35 17.7
88% 6 Texas Christian 34 47.0, 50 Texas Tech 24 29.5
87% 139 North Texas 52 39.5, 207 Florida International 14 21.1
87% 22 North Carolina 31 41.6, 102 Virginia 28 27.7
86% 88 Rhode Island 26 39.5, 195 Maine 22 21.5
85% 86 William & Mary 20 36.3, 206 Hampton 14 19.3
85% 23 Minnesota 20 36.0, 118 Nebraska 13 21.1
84% 231 Grambling 36 39.9, 257 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 19.1
84% 84 Richmond 40 31.3, 148 New Hampshire 34 17.7
83% 123 Saint Francis - Pennsy 38 40.6, 228 Georgetown 24 17.5
82% 157 North Carolina Central 50 42.2, 200 Howard 21 29.7
80% 99 Western Kentucky 59 44.2, 172 North Carolina - Charl 7 30.6
80% 20 Mississippi State 39 35.4, 73 Auburn 33 20.2
79% 146 Utah State 27 28.3, 189 New Mexico 10 14.4
79% 31 Central Florida 35 40.3, 96 Memphis 28 27.5
78% 191 Portland State 35 40.1, 242 Northern Colorado 21 25.5
78% 158 Austin Peay 38 44.0, 223 North Alabama 35 26.3
74% 89 Idaho 48 49.2, 192 Eastern Washington 16 30.1
72% 129 North Dakota 42 39.0, 193 Indiana State 7 28.2
72% 121 Pennsylvania 28 30.4, 179 Cornell 21 19.2
72% 63 Southern Methodist 77 41.7, 80 Houston 63 33.3
72% 28 California - Los Angel 50 39.5, 108 Arizona State 36 29.6
72% 27 Wisconsin 23 35.0, 39 Maryland 10 24.4
72% 2 Georgia 27 41.5, 3 Tennessee 13 29.5
71% 128 Southeast Missouri Sta 42 30.8, 204 Tennessee State 0 19.4
71% 110 Elon 27 36.4, 143 Albany 3 27.1
71% 64 Air Force 13 30.8, 107 Army 7 21.3
71% 40 South Carolina 38 33.5, 93 Vanderbilt 27 24.0
70% 106 Delaware 49 34.8, 132 Monmouth 17 27.0
70% 79 Marshall 12 25.5, 124 Old Dominion 0 19.1
70% 56 South Dakota State 31 31.3, 119 Northern Iowa 28 23.0
70% 43 Iowa State 31 28.4, 59 West Virginia 14 20.4
70% 33 Florida State 45 29.8, 91 Miami - Florida 3 23.4
68% 219 Alabama State 37 31.5, 248 Bethune - Cookman 22 24.1
68% 65 Duke 38 27.3, 137 Boston College 31 21.5
67% 225 McNeese State 29 29.9, 235 Eastern Illinois 15 23.3
67% 221 Stonehill 50 59.7, 254 Wagner 10 40.7
67% 52 Tulane 27 35.2, 111 Tulsa 13 29.8
64% 145 San Diego State 14 29.2, 125 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 25.0
63% 140 Eastern Kentucky 42 38.5, 141 Central Arkansas 14 34.0
63% 38 Washington State 52 24.4, 75 Stanford 14 20.5
62% 165 Rice 37 28.4, 170 Texas - El Paso 30 25.5
61% 236 Stony Brook 24 25.8, 215 Morgan State 22 22.5
60% 24 Louisville 34 29.3, 30 James Madison 10 26.6
58% 227 Tennessee Tech 35 47.8, 203 Lindenwood 34 43.5
58% 35 Washington 24 34.6, 29 Oregon State 21 32.8
57% 182 Western Carolina 36 34.4, 187 Wofford 29 32.9
57% 180 Abilene Christian 28 35.6, 202 Tarleton State 23 32.9
56% 253 Marist 31 31.5, 251 Morehead State 21 30.5
55% 212 Duquesne 35 17.6, 198 Sacred Heart 28 15.7
55% 161 Bowling Green 13 28.5, 167 Western Michigan 9 27.4
54% 168 South Dakota 20 28.1, 149 Missouri State 13 27.3
49% 209 Florida A&M 30 24.5, 174 Southern 16 24.9
49% 199 Saint Thomas - Minneso 34 35.1, 216 Valparaiso 7 35.4
49% 61 South Alabama 38 30.1, 94 Georgia Southern 31 30.5
48% 247 Long Island 29 33.8, 246 Central Connecticut 20 34.3
47% 60 Pittsburgh 19 28.7, 34 Syracuse 9 29.5
44% 116 Georgia State 42 26.6, 113 Southern Mississippi 14 27.8
43% 44 Kentucky 21 20.8, 46 Missouri 17 22.5
43% 21 Notre Dame 35 27.1, 9 Clemson 14 28.6
43% 8 Texas 34 25.0, 11 Kansas State 27 26.8
40% 85 Troy State 23 20.0, 101 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 22.5
39% 205 Butler 26 23.2, 222 San Diego 23 26.8
39% 169 Northeast Louisiana 31 28.4, 153 Texas State - San Marc 30 30.8
39% 131 Youngstown State 19 25.9, 163 Illinois State 17 28.6
39% 49 Sacramento State 33 29.1, 48 Weber State 30 32.6
39% 19 Baylor 38 28.8, 25 Oklahoma 35 31.6
38% 47 Iowa 24 22.2, 41 Purdue 3 25.6
37% 45 North Carolina State 30 30.5, 18 Wake Forest 21 33.2
36% 135 Ohio 45 29.4, 98 Buffalo 24 33.4
36% 87 Coastal Carolina 35 32.7, 54 Appalachian State 28 36.3
34% 90 Texas - San Antonio 44 25.3, 92 Alabama - Birmingham 38 29.7
33% 190 Temple 54 24.1, 150 South Florida 28 29.6
32% 220 Lafayette 21 15.0, 194 Colgate 16 21.6
30% 152 Ball State 27 28.4, 114 Kent State 20 34.8
30% 42 Kansas 37 38.2, 15 Oklahoma State 16 46.6
30% 37 Florida 41 23.7, 36 Texas A&M 24 30.8
29% 210 Bryant 43 27.3, 138 Campbell 37 37.7
29% 177 Louisiana Tech 40 33.1, 127 Middle Tennessee State 24 42.1
29% 142 Georgia Tech 28 16.1, 122 Virginia Tech 27 24.9
29% 77 Brigham Young 31 24.5, 76 Boise State 28 32.4
28% 238 Delaware State 27 17.3, 213 South Carolina State 24 28.9
28% 230 Alcorn State 23 22.9, 184 Prairie View 16 33.2
28% 185 Kennesaw State 44 25.7, 112 Tennessee - Martin 27 39.3
28% 164 Columbia 21 18.9, 117 Harvard 20 31.4
28% 159 Central Michigan 35 31.6, 130 Northern Illinois 22 39.2
28% 55 Michigan State 23 13.6, 14 Illinois 15 26.2
28% 16 Louisiana State 32 24.8, 4 Alabama 31 36.4
22% 69 Liberty 21 27.9, 26 Arkansas 19 42.5
20% 186 Towson 27 24.0, 136 Villanova 3 37.4
18% 258 Mississippi Valley Sta 30 23.6, 240 Alabama A&M 20 34.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
18 0.90 25 0.68 35 0.78 29 1.11 10 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 117 78 85.9 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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