prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 74 Southeast Louisiana 23 61.6, 249 Northwestern State 7 16.4
93% 53 Weber State 45 46.9, 230 Idaho State 7 6.7
93% 2 Ohio State 56 61.0, 98 Indiana 14 14.9
92% 8 Southern California 55 56.7, 177 Colorado 17 14.8
92% 4 Michigan 34 54.1, 112 Nebraska 3 13.5
91% 184 Southern 27 40.0, 257 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 11.2
91% 36 Sacramento State 45 51.4, 193 Portland State 17 21.9
90% 76 Jackson State 27 49.6, 247 Alabama A&M 13 12.2
90% 59 Montana 63 50.0, 204 Eastern Washington 7 15.7
90% 3 Tennessee 66 46.9, 47 Missouri 24 17.9
89% 206 The Citadel 66 41.0, 260 Houston Baptist 0 9.4
89% 153 Arkansas State 35 41.3, 241 Massachusetts 33 17.1
89% 69 Air Force 35 34.2, 199 New Mexico 3 4.0
89% 51 Holy Cross 36 50.0, 189 Bryant 29 17.8
89% 10 Utah 42 40.5, 96 Stanford 7 15.2
88% 226 Dayton 49 42.7, 253 Morehead State 27 22.6
88% 212 McNeese State 21 42.3, 260 Houston Baptist 10 15.5
88% 191 Prairie View 55 44.1, 259 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 18.9
88% 144 North Carolina Central 48 48.2, 255 Norfolk State 14 22.5
88% 135 Middle Tennessee State 24 44.9, 192 North Carolina - Charl 14 27.5
88% 134 Florida Atlantic 52 34.8, 220 Florida International 7 17.2
88% 131 Utah State 41 37.0, 209 Hawaii 34 21.8
88% 109 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 39.8, 242 Eastern Illinois 7 14.7
88% 86 Western Kentucky 45 41.6, 160 Rice 10 22.7
88% 84 Houston 43 42.0, 173 Temple 36 22.1
88% 81 Boise State 41 33.3, 172 Nevada - Reno 3 18.2
88% 75 Texas - San Antonio 51 50.2, 165 Louisiana Tech 7 31.0
88% 67 Montana State 72 53.3, 227 California Poly 28 22.8
88% 66 Fordham 45 47.7, 211 Lafayette 10 23.9
88% 64 South Dakota State 31 34.6, 174 Illinois State 7 12.3
88% 54 South Alabama 38 35.6, 151 Texas State - San Marc 21 15.7
88% 42 Michigan State 27 32.7, 127 Rutgers 21 13.6
88% 31 Minnesota 31 31.7, 110 Northwestern 3 10.6
88% 30 Oregon State 38 34.5, 79 California 10 18.6
88% 21 Washington State 28 36.8, 116 Arizona State 18 16.1
88% 15 Notre Dame 35 35.4, 111 Navy 32 12.4
88% 7 Penn State 30 38.2, 46 Maryland 0 20.7
88% 1 Georgia 45 38.3, 19 Mississippi State 19 18.6
85% 219 Alcorn State 17 42.7, 250 Bethune - Cookman 14 26.5
85% 77 Coastal Carolina 26 36.8, 130 Southern Mississippi 23 22.1
84% 167 North Carolina A&T 20 39.9, 221 Charleston Southern 10 24.2
81% 187 Wofford 34 36.1, 239 Virginia Military 16 18.9
81% 108 Elon 38 29.1, 207 Hampton 24 14.2
81% 61 Southern Methodist 41 50.7, 163 South Florida 23 34.8
81% 49 Duke 24 34.7, 125 Virginia Tech 7 20.7
79% 52 North Dakota State 21 37.2, 136 Southern Illinois 18 24.0
78% 103 Wyoming 14 31.6, 190 Colorado State 13 20.1
77% 185 Saint Thomas - Minneso 23 45.7, 246 Stetson 0 26.0
77% 87 Toledo 28 35.8, 142 Ball State 21 22.4
72% 244 Murray State 27 26.4, 258 Robert Morris 9 14.9
72% 196 Sacred Heart 38 27.4, 256 Wagner 28 12.1
72% 169 Columbia 31 34.7, 200 Brown 24 25.3
72% 155 Eastern Michigan 34 35.2, 201 Akron 28 25.1
72% 152 Albany 23 39.3, 188 Maine 21 29.0
72% 105 Jacksonville State 42 39.2, 122 Eastern Kentucky 17 27.3
72% 100 Alabama - Birmingham 41 33.8, 119 North Texas 21 24.8
72% 41 Cincinnati 27 35.2, 57 East Carolina 25 23.5
71% 213 New Mexico State 51 35.6, 254 Lamar 14 22.3
71% 149 Tennessee - Martin 20 32.9, 228 Tennessee State 3 22.0
71% 123 Saint Francis - Pennsy 51 29.9, 205 Duquesne 14 13.0
71% 94 William & Mary 45 35.6, 164 Villanova 12 23.3
71% 58 James Madison 37 31.9, 126 Old Dominion 3 19.4
71% 5 Alabama 30 40.1, 18 Mississippi 24 31.5
70% 180 Towson 21 27.1, 235 Stony Brook 17 20.3
70% 118 North Dakota 28 33.1, 171 South Dakota 19 24.3
70% 89 Fresno State 37 35.5, 137 Nevada - Las Vegas 30 29.4
70% 32 Florida 38 37.7, 45 South Carolina 6 29.3
68% 73 Troy State 10 25.4, 104 Army 9 18.8
68% 55 Pittsburgh 37 26.5, 102 Virginia 7 20.7
68% 12 Louisiana State 13 35.2, 43 Arkansas 10 29.6
67% 14 Clemson 31 31.5, 13 Louisville 16 25.3
65% 203 Texas Southern 41 30.7, 234 Grambling 7 26.1
65% 124 Kent State 40 33.4, 157 Bowling Green 6 29.9
65% 27 Oklahoma State 20 28.8, 35 Iowa State 14 24.7
65% 22 Florida State 38 29.6, 48 Syracuse 3 25.9
64% 236 Valparaiso 45 28.9, 251 Marist 24 25.0
64% 214 Indiana State 21 33.3, 240 Western Illinois 0 29.1
64% 208 Howard 28 30.2, 222 South Carolina State 14 26.7
64% 63 California - Davis 44 37.3, 83 Idaho 26 32.8
63% 95 Memphis 26 40.7, 115 Tulsa 10 36.6
63% 34 Central Florida 38 29.0, 50 Tulane 31 25.0
60% 159 Central Arkansas 34 35.0, 178 Stephen F. Austin 7 32.3
59% 132 New Hampshire 31 28.6, 106 Rhode Island 28 26.9
58% 44 Texas Tech 43 38.1, 25 Kansas 28 36.3
56% 195 Florida A&M 21 20.8, 217 Alabama State 14 19.3
54% 107 Louisiana - Lafayette 36 32.5, 91 Georgia Southern 17 31.5
54% 80 Marshall 28 25.6, 68 Appalachian State 21 24.6
52% 218 Lehigh 36 22.6, 194 Colgate 33 22.1
52% 143 Northern Illinois 24 28.4, 175 Western Michigan 21 27.9
52% 37 Iowa 24 19.7, 24 Wisconsin 10 19.2
51% 216 Morgan State 37 26.3, 231 Delaware State 7 26.2
49% 121 Miami - Florida 35 22.8, 138 Georgia Tech 14 23.1
46% 154 Austin Peay 31 32.1, 158 Kennesaw State 14 33.2
46% 113 Ohio 37 26.5, 141 Miami - Ohio 21 27.2
42% 71 Auburn 13 24.3, 56 Texas A&M 10 26.3
42% 11 Kansas State 31 25.6, 16 Baylor 3 27.5
41% 156 Missouri State 25 33.1, 128 Youngstown State 22 34.8
41% 65 West Virginia 23 33.9, 29 Oklahoma 20 36.0
40% 90 Richmond 21 23.9, 88 Delaware 13 26.4
39% 133 Harvard 37 25.7, 114 Pennsylvania 14 28.9
39% 92 Yale 24 26.8, 85 Princeton 20 29.2
37% 223 Tennessee Tech 35 36.3, 210 North Alabama 27 40.5
35% 245 Long Island 34 45.6, 197 Stonehill 28 61.1
35% 145 San Diego State 43 15.7, 72 San Jose State 27 20.9
34% 97 Samford 35 28.9, 93 Tennessee - Chattanoog 24 34.0
34% 6 Texas Christian 17 33.3, 9 Texas 10 38.1
33% 238 Bucknell 24 22.4, 224 Georgetown 21 28.0
32% 182 Cornell 17 19.6, 179 Dartmouth 13 25.5
32% 147 Central Michigan 31 26.9, 117 Buffalo 27 31.4
32% 23 North Carolina 36 42.6, 20 Wake Forest 34 46.5
30% 225 San Diego 31 27.9, 176 Davidson 14 36.3
29% 252 Drake 27 18.1, 198 Butler 24 27.5
29% 161 Gardner - Webb 42 30.6, 146 Campbell 35 38.2
29% 60 Purdue 31 19.9, 28 Illinois 24 29.7
29% 33 Washington 37 30.8, 17 Oregon 34 42.0
28% 183 Western Carolina 20 35.3, 150 East Tennessee State 17 46.8
28% 120 Furman 23 20.9, 70 Mercer 13 33.6
21% 181 Abilene Christian 45 14.8, 139 Sam Houston State 28 30.6
17% 243 Northern Colorado 21 22.0, 170 Northern Arizona 20 38.3
13% 162 Connecticut 36 17.9, 62 Liberty 33 34.2
12% 166 Northeast Louisiana 31 24.0, 99 Georgia State 28 41.6
12% 140 Boston College 21 10.4, 40 North Carolina State 20 32.9
12% 101 Vanderbilt 24 16.1, 39 Kentucky 21 33.5
12% 82 Arizona 34 34.3, 26 California - Los Angel 28 52.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
17 1.06 27 0.85 29 1.00 43 0.99 8 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 124 91 92.8 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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