prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 62 Texas A&M 20 46.7, 235 Massachusetts 3 2.4
92% 53 Missouri 45 45.1, 213 New Mexico State 14 8.9
92% 48 Incarnate Word 66 61.4, 248 Northwestern State 7 22.2
90% 99 Southeast Louisiana 40 49.2, 241 Nicholls State 17 19.7
89% 12 Louisiana State 41 39.6, 93 Alabama - Birmingham 10 11.1
89% 7 Penn State 55 39.1, 123 Rutgers 10 11.4
89% 3 Ohio State 43 49.0, 58 Maryland 30 21.3
88% 252 Stetson 42 42.9, 261 Presbyterian 21 19.8
88% 221 McNeese State 24 40.8, 255 Lamar 20 17.5
88% 216 Tarleton State 49 53.6, 262 Houston Baptist 7 18.6
88% 191 Florida A&M 41 41.2, 251 Bethune - Cookman 20 22.7
88% 183 Bryant 35 39.3, 260 Robert Morris 6 17.1
88% 167 Illinois State 20 36.9, 250 Western Illinois 13 9.7
88% 162 Texas - El Paso 40 33.1, 231 Florida International 6 15.1
88% 147 Tennessee - Martin 34 40.7, 244 Eastern Illinois 31 15.5
88% 137 Monmouth 24 42.3, 234 Stony Brook 21 19.9
88% 102 Southeast Missouri Sta 52 42.9, 245 Murray State 22 8.1
88% 88 Idaho 38 44.2, 226 Idaho State 7 19.6
88% 87 Jackson State 24 36.4, 230 Alcorn State 13 12.7
88% 83 Troy State 34 35.4, 157 Northeast Louisiana 16 15.2
88% 72 Appalachian State 27 36.4, 146 Old Dominion 14 18.3
88% 68 Texas - San Antonio 41 42.6, 168 Rice 7 26.6
88% 66 Holy Cross 47 52.8, 225 Georgetown 10 20.5
88% 64 Air Force 24 35.3, 188 Colorado State 12 7.0
88% 60 Fordham 52 56.0, 199 Colgate 38 30.6
88% 50 Weber State 33 38.3, 181 Northern Arizona 31 14.3
88% 49 James Madison 42 39.5, 112 Georgia State 40 19.9
88% 43 Cincinnati 23 38.2, 161 Temple 3 14.6
88% 27 Washington 54 47.6, 166 Colorado 7 17.0
88% 26 Mississippi State 56 47.2, 164 East Tennessee State 7 21.4
88% 22 Wake Forest 45 40.0, 76 Syracuse 35 25.8
88% 18 Notre Dame 44 38.6, 125 Boston College 0 11.6
88% 14 Clemson 40 40.9, 110 Miami - Florida 10 15.9
88% 13 Florida State 49 39.4, 97 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 12.2
88% 5 Alabama 34 53.4, 150 Austin Peay 0 13.7
88% 4 Michigan 19 35.3, 36 Illinois 17 12.1
88% 1 Georgia 16 37.4, 51 Kentucky 6 9.2
87% 101 Furman 63 34.8, 187 Wofford 28 14.6
86% 154 Campbell 34 37.6, 242 Delaware State 7 22.0
86% 95 Memphis 59 54.0, 222 North Alabama 0 29.5
86% 45 Purdue 17 36.6, 121 Northwestern 9 20.0
83% 170 Dartmouth 30 35.3, 206 Brown 7 19.7
82% 214 San Diego 14 40.9, 256 Morehead State 9 25.1
82% 61 North Dakota State 42 42.0, 116 North Dakota 21 22.2
81% 127 San Diego State 34 24.8, 202 New Mexico 10 10.3
81% 77 Fresno State 41 36.2, 184 Nevada - Reno 14 21.5
79% 21 Oregon State 31 37.4, 109 Arizona State 7 23.9
77% 212 Eastern Washington 45 40.8, 238 Northern Colorado 21 27.1
75% 182 The Citadel 26 32.6, 243 Virginia Military 22 19.0
75% 24 Washington State 31 36.7, 67 Arizona 20 26.1
74% 215 Duquesne 33 32.6, 254 Wagner 0 12.2
74% 136 North Carolina Central 22 39.8, 218 Tennessee Tech 20 26.0
73% 15 Louisville 25 28.2, 44 North Carolina State 10 16.1
72% 126 Tulsa 48 41.2, 169 South Florida 42 28.7
72% 104 Army 34 28.9, 148 Connecticut 17 17.3
72% 46 South Alabama 27 30.3, 133 Southern Mississippi 20 20.8
72% 30 Wisconsin 15 34.2, 113 Nebraska 14 21.8
72% 11 Texas 55 38.4, 34 Kansas 14 27.9
72% 8 Kansas State 48 33.5, 59 West Virginia 31 21.5
71% 198 Davidson 24 38.4, 220 Dayton 23 29.0
71% 177 Towson 27 29.7, 196 Hampton 7 21.1
71% 160 Columbia 45 27.4, 178 Cornell 22 18.6
71% 153 Missouri State 24 34.3, 211 Indiana State 7 24.4
71% 124 New Hampshire 42 32.1, 186 Maine 41 23.4
71% 115 Rhode Island 35 39.3, 163 Albany 21 29.8
71% 78 Brigham Young 52 58.3, 185 Utah Tech 26 34.5
71% 69 Boise State 20 29.6, 122 Wyoming 17 20.8
70% 31 Oklahoma 28 38.8, 25 Oklahoma State 13 32.8
69% 132 Eastern Kentucky 45 39.5, 158 Kennesaw State 38 33.0
69% 10 Southern California 48 45.7, 38 California - Los Angel 45 39.9
68% 39 Pittsburgh 28 32.2, 40 Duke 26 26.8
68% 35 Sacramento State 27 39.9, 41 California - Davis 21 33.9
68% 6 Texas Christian 29 37.1, 23 Baylor 28 30.3
66% 239 Bucknell 24 24.0, 253 Marist 13 17.8
65% 119 Northern Iowa 58 25.9, 173 South Dakota 14 20.8
65% 90 California 27 24.8, 108 Stanford 20 20.9
64% 217 Lafayette 14 18.7, 207 Lehigh 11 14.3
64% 152 Texas State - San Marc 16 33.2, 159 Arkansas State 13 29.4
64% 114 Jacksonville State 40 32.2, 141 Central Arkansas 17 27.6
63% 134 Youngstown State 28 34.6, 143 Southern Illinois 21 31.6
63% 96 Ohio 32 31.3, 139 Ball State 18 28.2
63% 75 Auburn 41 32.4, 73 Western Kentucky 17 28.1
62% 82 Samford 50 34.9, 92 Mercer 44 31.9
62% 74 Marshall 23 28.8, 103 Georgia Southern 10 26.0
62% 54 Tulane 59 37.2, 57 Southern Methodist 24 34.3
61% 149 Gardner - Webb 38 35.0, 171 North Carolina A&T 17 31.9
59% 56 Montana State 55 36.0, 47 Montana 21 33.9
57% 176 Saint Thomas - Minneso 27 30.4, 209 Butler 13 27.8
52% 142 Middle Tennessee State 49 27.5, 117 Florida Atlantic 21 26.9
51% 192 North Carolina - Charl 26 39.7, 179 Louisiana Tech 21 39.5
48% 201 Howard 35 32.3, 208 Morgan State 6 32.7
46% 17 Oregon 20 32.6, 9 Utah 17 33.4
41% 81 Yale 19 29.0, 120 Harvard 14 31.0
39% 128 Utah State 35 25.9, 91 San Jose State 31 28.5
39% 32 Iowa 13 14.7, 28 Minnesota 10 17.9
33% 79 William & Mary 37 26.9, 71 Richmond 26 32.2
33% 33 Texas Tech 14 20.8, 37 Iowa State 10 26.3
32% 237 California Poly 49 33.1, 203 Portland State 42 37.9
31% 249 Central Connecticut 39 34.5, 204 Stonehill 14 51.2
31% 52 Arkansas 42 33.3, 16 Mississippi 27 38.3
30% 246 Alabama A&M 24 27.1, 194 Texas Southern 20 33.1
30% 175 Villanova 29 19.8, 94 Delaware 26 27.8
30% 172 Western Michigan 12 22.0, 138 Central Michigan 10 28.1
30% 155 Miami - Ohio 29 23.2, 144 Northern Illinois 23 28.9
29% 247 Drake 24 21.6, 227 Valparaiso 0 31.0
29% 200 Hawaii 31 30.8, 145 Nevada - Las Vegas 25 38.9
29% 190 Stephen F. Austin 24 25.7, 156 Abilene Christian 21 35.0
29% 189 Southern Utah 17 14.5, 165 Sam Houston State 7 26.9
29% 84 Houston 42 33.4, 55 East Carolina 3 42.9
27% 151 Eastern Michigan 31 27.6, 106 Kent State 24 37.0
26% 240 Long Island 37 17.5, 195 Sacred Heart 34 36.3
26% 131 Virginia Tech 23 20.9, 70 Liberty 22 32.5
23% 180 Western Carolina 32 26.7, 98 Tennessee - Chattanoog 29 41.2
19% 85 Vanderbilt 31 25.5, 20 Florida 24 40.5
17% 135 Pennsylvania 20 17.8, 86 Princeton 19 31.8
14% 100 Indiana 39 20.4, 42 Michigan State 31 36.7
12% 258 Norfolk State 42 17.6, 229 South Carolina State 38 36.1
12% 257 Mississippi Valley Sta 27 19.6, 193 Prairie View 7 39.1
12% 174 Bowling Green 42 19.3, 89 Toledo 35 39.5
12% 107 Navy 17 19.0, 29 Central Florida 14 38.6
12% 65 South Carolina 63 23.3, 2 Tennessee 38 49.9
10% 140 Georgia Tech 21 21.1, 19 North Carolina 17 47.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.04 29 1.00 31 0.93 51 0.97 4 0.82 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 122 90 93.5 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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