prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 50 Arizona 23 39.2, 106 Texas - El Paso 3 8.9
99% 45 Wyoming 40 39.5, 104 Idaho 38 11.7
99% 35 Miami - Ohio 64 48.8, 111 Kent State 6 2.9
99% 34 Brigham Young 58 39.3, 105 Arkansas State 9 7.7
99% 28 Alabama 21 32.5, 93 Bowling Green 7 4.5
99% 20 Auburn 29 45.8, 101 Alabama - Birmingham 0 11.4
99% 7 Tennessee 62 55.5, 109 Nevada - Las Vegas 3 7.8
99% 2 Florida 55 49.0, 68 Southwestern Louisiana 21 11.1
98% 37 Air Force 45 41.3, 97 San Jose State 0 14.8
98% 5 Colorado 37 39.1, 57 Washington State 19 11.1
97% 13 Kansas 35 33.5, 69 Ball State 10 8.6
95% 18 Texas 40 33.7, 71 Missouri 10 11.2
93% 62 Maryland 30 37.0, 98 Northern Illinois 6 18.5
93% 24 Miami - Florida 30 24.2, 79 Memphis State 7 8.1
82% 108 Ohio 44 27.0, 110 Akron 14 17.1
81% 12 Michigan 20 21.2, 26 Illinois 8 11.3
80% 6 Kansas State 21 31.4, 14 Texas Tech 14 21.0
73% 66 Boston College 24 25.6, 91 Hawaii 21 17.8
70% 42 North Carolina 45 16.9, 53 Clemson 0 11.3
69% 31 Oregon 30 34.6, 63 Fresno State 27 28.3
65% 90 Central Michigan 42 25.4, 102 Boise State 21 20.4
64% 56 West Virginia 34 23.8, 76 Pittsburgh 0 19.1
62% 44 Louisville 38 20.1, 60 Kentucky 14 16.1
58% 75 New Mexico 28 31.3, 89 New Mexico State 7 28.6
51% 41 Michigan State 52 25.0, 27 Purdue 14 25.6
49% 92 Southern Methodist 17 20.5, 86 Tulsa 10 21.4
31% 54 Southern Mississippi 11 21.3, 43 Georgia 7 26.9
18% 73 Utah State 20 15.2, 33 Utah 17 26.1
14% 99 Temple 28 24.0, 82 Eastern Michigan 24 36.4
3% 95 Tulane 34 7.9, 47 Cincinnati 14 33.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.26 5 1.22 2 1.39 5 0.73 15 0.96 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 30 25 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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