prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 81 Pittsburgh 52 41.8, 111 Kent State 14 8.1
99% 31 Air Force 65 47.2, 109 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 17.3
99% 17 Louisiana State 35 37.9, 89 Houston 34 7.7
99% 15 Virginia 55 39.2, 87 Central Michigan 21 9.0
99% 10 Virginia Tech 21 51.7, 110 Akron 18 5.1
99% 4 Ohio State 70 43.2, 79 Rice 7 5.8
99% 1 Nebraska 55 51.0, 28 Michigan State 14 14.7
98% 18 Texas 41 44.8, 93 New Mexico State 7 18.3
98% 9 Notre Dame 14 32.6, 78 Vanderbilt 7 8.4
98% 3 Florida State 44 52.9, 77 Duke 7 21.3
97% 41 San Diego State 40 40.8, 97 Idaho 21 15.4
96% 61 Maryland 39 31.7, 101 Alabama - Birmingham 15 9.2
95% 47 South Carolina 33 45.6, 102 Central Florida 14 26.6
95% 12 Texas Tech 31 35.4, 63 Oklahoma State 3 12.5
93% 55 Washington State 38 30.4, 98 Temple 34 12.8
93% 45 Baylor 24 34.0, 95 Louisiana Tech 16 16.8
93% 35 Wisconsin 24 36.3, 84 Eastern Michigan 3 17.0
92% 8 Penn State 24 35.1, 40 Louisville 7 16.3
91% 6 Tennessee 35 38.7, 42 California - Los Angel 20 20.2
89% 68 California 45 30.3, 103 San Jose State 25 16.0
89% 20 Auburn 62 42.2, 62 Fresno State 0 27.3
86% 5 Colorado 48 34.6, 33 Colorado State 34 21.3
85% 48 West Virginia 34 21.0, 73 Western Michigan 9 9.0
84% 25 Iowa 21 25.5, 52 Arizona 20 13.3
83% 30 Miami - Ohio 16 26.4, 70 Ball State 6 14.9
78% 60 Minnesota 30 36.0, 96 Northeast Louisiana 3 27.1
75% 36 Alabama 20 21.3, 49 Southern Mississippi 10 13.7
74% 56 Cincinnati 24 21.7, 65 Kentucky 3 14.3
74% 53 Wyoming 41 35.6, 88 Iowa State 38 27.9
52% 59 Georgia Tech 28 24.4, 74 North Carolina State 16 23.2
50% 21 Southern California 55 16.6, 27 Illinois 3 16.1
48% 34 Oregon 44 34.2, 19 Nevada - Reno 30 35.5
46% 50 Arizona State 45 26.6, 32 Washington 42 28.6
43% 76 Mississippi State 31 22.2, 80 Memphis State 10 23.6
41% 82 Navy 10 25.9, 83 Rutgers 6 28.1
37% 38 Utah 17 23.8, 37 Stanford 10 27.2
28% 29 North Carolina 27 19.9, 22 Syracuse 10 26.7
17% 64 Texas Christian 20 11.5, 44 Oklahoma 7 22.3
9% 108 Ohio 21 12.5, 91 Hawaii 10 29.7
7% 71 Indiana 40 15.1, 23 Toledo 6 34.9
5% 92 Southern Methodist 23 7.5, 51 Arkansas 10 27.9
1% 99 Wake Forest 28 7.5, 11 Northwestern 27 40.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.31 1 0.00 5 1.07 7 1.00 21 0.84 2 1.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 42 30 0.84
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net