prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 41 Arizona State 52 44.8, 108 North Texas 7 15.5
99% 37 California - Los Angel 44 41.2, 103 Northeast Louisiana 0 11.5
99% 33 Wisconsin 52 49.6, 110 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 9.4
99% 31 Toledo 27 43.8, 109 Akron 10 10.2
99% 10 Southern California 46 36.4, 85 Oregon State 17 3.8
99% 8 Penn State 49 49.7, 99 Northern Illinois 0 11.8
98% 43 Stanford 25 40.0, 101 San Jose State 2 13.2
97% 61 Army 37 31.8, 104 Ohio 20 6.7
97% 6 Kansas State 35 32.0, 51 Cincinnati 0 7.8
96% 11 Virginia 21 36.4, 63 Maryland 3 12.5
95% 27 Iowa 38 41.9, 87 Iowa State 13 21.5
94% 64 New Mexico 17 30.3, 100 Central Florida 7 10.6
94% 52 Wyoming 66 37.4, 96 Hawaii 0 17.4
94% 32 Alabama 36 18.3, 74 Vanderbilt 26 3.3
94% 22 Miami - Florida 33 37.4, 89 Rutgers 0 18.5
93% 59 Georgia Tech 30 32.7, 97 Wake Forest 10 13.5
93% 9 Auburn 45 31.2, 55 Mississippi 28 13.1
91% 18 Northwestern 38 33.4, 71 Duke 13 17.3
89% 20 Virginia Tech 45 27.1, 69 Boston College 7 12.6
88% 15 Kansas 52 28.3, 58 Texas Christian 17 14.1
88% 12 Notre Dame 35 33.5, 44 Purdue 0 18.6
85% 34 Utah 21 24.1, 80 Southern Methodist 17 12.0
81% 53 Minnesota 26 29.5, 76 Ball State 23 18.5
81% 48 Southern Mississippi 31 26.0, 68 Utah State 24 15.7
79% 67 Oklahoma State 30 23.7, 83 Tulsa 9 14.4
75% 102 Alabama - Birmingham 42 25.3, 107 Arkansas State 17 17.6
68% 92 Bowling Green 20 27.0, 98 Temple 16 21.7
68% 30 Oregon 35 28.2, 36 Colorado State 28 23.0
61% 47 Arizona 41 13.2, 46 Illinois 0 10.4
60% 49 South Carolina 23 35.6, 45 Georgia 14 33.1
60% 40 West Virginia 10 19.7, 38 East Carolina 9 17.0
47% 42 Washington 29 28.3, 23 Brigham Young 17 30.2
42% 78 Houston 42 24.7, 81 Pittsburgh 35 26.7
40% 105 Texas - El Paso 14 29.1, 93 New Mexico State 7 32.5
33% 94 Louisiana Tech 38 27.4, 90 Central Michigan 37 32.4
31% 65 California 42 24.6, 39 San Diego State 37 31.1
28% 91 Rice 21 20.4, 82 Tulane 14 27.1
27% 86 Eastern Michigan 19 18.9, 77 Western Michigan 12 26.1
26% 84 Memphis State 19 9.5, 72 Missouri 16 16.4
25% 50 Baylor 14 13.1, 35 Louisville 13 20.8
23% 60 Indiana 21 16.2, 25 Miami - Ohio 14 25.4
17% 14 Michigan 20 21.6, 5 Colorado 13 33.9
8% 70 Southwestern Louisiana 29 14.8, 17 Texas A&M 22 31.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 8 0.97 7 0.38 7 1.01 19 0.99 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 43 31 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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