prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 53 Illinois 38 36.2, 107 Akron 7 4.0
99% 44 Texas A&M 55 42.0, 108 North Texas 0 6.7
99% 33 Colorado State 35 54.1, 110 Nevada - Las Vegas 16 14.6
99% 18 Northwestern 28 42.0, 102 Ohio 7 2.9
99% 17 Virginia Tech 30 43.4, 97 Rutgers 14 11.4
99% 12 Virginia 42 41.4, 94 Wake Forest 7 13.2
99% 11 Michigan 20 35.5, 80 Boston College 14 5.1
99% 7 Penn State 41 44.4, 95 Temple 0 11.2
99% 5 Kansas State 34 40.9, 88 Rice 7 7.5
99% 4 Florida State 51 48.4, 75 North Carolina State 17 19.1
99% 3 Ohio State 72 49.7, 79 Pittsburgh 0 8.9
93% 47 Baylor 42 25.4, 84 Oregon State 10 7.1
92% 40 Utah 45 37.9, 87 Fresno State 17 19.1
92% 20 North Carolina 16 27.7, 58 Georgia Tech 0 9.5
91% 69 Ball State 31 25.7, 99 Central Florida 10 8.9
90% 31 Brigham Young 17 32.4, 71 New Mexico 14 15.6
85% 13 Southern California 26 34.9, 60 Houston 9 21.6
79% 48 Southern Mississippi 52 30.2, 70 Southwestern Louisiana 27 20.4
78% 46 Toledo 24 30.5, 81 Eastern Michigan 7 20.7
77% 65 Army 35 30.7, 78 Duke 17 22.2
76% 2 Florida 35 38.3, 6 Tennessee 29 29.3
75% 83 Memphis State 17 19.8, 89 Tulane 10 12.3
73% 43 San Diego State 51 27.7, 51 Oklahoma 31 20.5
72% 32 Alabama 17 18.4, 62 Arkansas 7 11.7
71% 50 Mississippi 20 17.7, 77 Vanderbilt 9 11.3
69% 64 Oklahoma State 31 23.1, 68 Utah State 17 17.7
69% 38 Wisconsin 14 22.3, 45 Stanford 0 16.4
62% 73 Navy 19 16.2, 74 Southern Methodist 17 12.8
60% 101 San Jose State 26 25.0, 100 Texas - El Paso 25 22.1
60% 10 Notre Dame 27 27.7, 19 Texas 24 23.7
59% 106 Hawaii 20 27.6, 105 Boise State 14 25.1
59% 103 Northern Illinois 31 28.7, 109 Arkansas State 30 25.3
59% 42 West Virginia 20 20.1, 57 Purdue 6 16.4
56% 34 Washington 31 20.9, 28 Arizona 17 19.4
50% 35 Wyoming 22 36.6, 22 Air Force 19 36.9
50% 39 East Carolina 23 32.1, 49 South Carolina 7 31.4
47% 76 Missouri 38 12.0, 66 Clemson 24 13.0
44% 92 Central Michigan 38 21.1, 82 Western Michigan 28 23.8
38% 55 California 33 36.0, 24 Nevada - Reno 15 40.1
31% 59 Minnesota 35 23.3, 29 Syracuse 33 30.1
26% 41 Louisville 30 19.9, 25 Michigan State 20 27.6
21% 54 Washington State 55 18.9, 21 Oregon 44 28.9
19% 72 Kentucky 3 14.2, 37 Indiana 0 25.2
17% 90 Louisiana Tech 38 27.9, 67 Mississippi State 23 38.8
17% 23 Louisiana State 19 22.7, 9 Auburn 15 35.2
14% 52 Georgia 15 14.1, 15 Texas Tech 12 27.3
5% 86 Tulsa 27 13.6, 26 Iowa 20 33.3
3% 36 Arizona State 19 20.0, 1 Nebraska 0 51.4
2% 93 Bowling Green 14 6.7, 27 Miami - Ohio 10 35.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.39 6 1.02 10 1.06 5 0.24 18 0.86 1 1.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 49 36 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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