prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 55 Army 27 41.9, 109 North Texas 10 11.9
99% 43 Nevada - Reno 63 53.3, 111 Kent State 42 12.2
99% 27 East Carolina 28 35.5, 99 Central Florida 7 3.9
99% 25 Wyoming 33 50.7, 110 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 19.7
99% 16 Louisiana State 63 40.6, 94 New Mexico State 7 6.9
99% 15 Miami - Florida 45 41.4, 93 Pittsburgh 0 8.8
99% 3 Florida 65 49.7, 78 Kentucky 0 4.6
99% 2 Nebraska 65 47.4, 52 Colorado State 9 11.4
98% 62 Arkansas 38 32.1, 104 Northeast Louisiana 21 6.1
98% 37 Washington State 52 41.2, 101 San Jose State 16 14.7
97% 20 Air Force 45 40.4, 85 Rice 17 13.7
96% 36 California 48 34.7, 89 Oregon State 42 10.9
94% 21 Texas Tech 58 34.2, 65 Utah State 20 13.2
94% 4 Florida State 13 38.9, 18 North Carolina 0 16.6
92% 41 Michigan State 47 37.1, 87 Eastern Michigan 0 18.6
92% 5 Penn State 23 27.7, 34 Wisconsin 20 11.5
92% 1 Ohio State 29 39.4, 8 Notre Dame 16 22.6
87% 32 Brigham Young 31 30.9, 66 Southern Methodist 3 15.6
87% 9 Colorado 24 32.3, 44 Texas A&M 10 18.0
86% 73 Clemson 21 28.7, 97 Wake Forest 10 14.2
83% 39 West Virginia 13 20.0, 59 Maryland 0 9.3
82% 61 Georgia Tech 48 25.8, 81 Duke 22 14.8
82% 22 Arizona State 48 37.4, 51 Oregon 27 26.2
80% 14 Michigan 38 26.5, 29 California - Los Angel 9 16.4
79% 96 Fresno State 20 37.9, 105 Hawaii 0 29.1
74% 64 Purdue 42 29.4, 79 North Carolina State 21 21.1
73% 13 Virginia 37 28.7, 17 Texas 13 21.2
69% 76 Bowling Green 31 28.5, 86 Central Michigan 27 22.2
68% 63 New Mexico 27 20.4, 72 Texas Christian 7 15.3
60% 24 Northwestern 35 19.2, 42 Indiana 17 15.5
59% 71 Boston College 43 16.4, 68 Navy 38 13.9
51% 98 Texas - El Paso 37 27.1, 103 Northern Illinois 6 25.5
50% 31 Syracuse 52 21.3, 23 Virginia Tech 21 22.2
47% 58 Cincinnati 30 15.4, 46 Miami - Ohio 23 16.7
46% 84 Iowa State 45 29.1, 69 Missouri 31 31.1
41% 38 Southern Mississippi 24 19.8, 40 Louisville 7 22.1
34% 83 Southwestern Louisiana 37 31.1, 75 Louisiana Tech 31 35.5
24% 82 Tulsa 31 15.8, 67 Oklahoma 24 24.5
24% 74 Mississippi State 14 32.3, 56 South Carolina 10 40.4
21% 33 Utah 45 19.1, 10 Kansas 42 29.7
16% 107 Akron 27 15.9, 90 Western Michigan 7 27.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.78 3 0.98 7 0.74 7 1.01 17 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 41 32 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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