prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 34 Nevada - Reno 54 49.4, 110 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 31.7
99% 24 Alabama 35 32.9, 87 Kentucky 7 3.4
99% 20 North Carolina 45 34.8, 92 Wake Forest 6 6.3
99% 13 Arizona State 56 51.2, 105 Boise State 7 4.1
99% 8 Louisiana State 35 36.3, 70 Vanderbilt 0 3.7
99% 4 Florida State 34 45.5, 71 Clemson 3 4.1
99% 2 Florida 42 48.2, 64 Arkansas 7 9.1
98% 36 Wyoming 45 40.6, 102 San Jose State 22 16.2
98% 26 Utah 34 36.9, 94 Texas - El Paso 27 11.4
98% 22 Syracuse 42 43.1, 89 Rutgers 0 14.6
98% 17 Kansas 52 40.9, 83 Oklahoma 24 16.9
96% 5 Tennessee 41 34.8, 51 Mississippi 3 13.9
95% 69 Colorado State 28 34.4, 107 Hawaii 16 15.0
94% 11 Auburn 28 43.1, 62 South Carolina 24 21.2
93% 66 Ball State 28 24.6, 101 Western Michigan 5 8.0
91% 12 Texas Tech 45 32.6, 40 Baylor 24 15.2
91% 1 Ohio State 38 40.0, 7 Penn State 7 20.9
90% 44 Texas A&M 63 33.3, 77 Louisiana Tech 13 16.8
90% 28 Brigham Young 45 35.1, 78 Utah State 17 19.9
89% 23 Texas 71 30.0, 55 Oklahoma State 14 14.0
89% 21 Washington 27 32.9, 47 Stanford 6 16.5
87% 56 Miami - Ohio 46 35.3, 90 Central Michigan 14 21.3
85% 42 West Virginia 34 24.1, 63 Boston College 17 11.4
85% 3 Nebraska 39 32.6, 6 Kansas State 3 19.8
82% 53 Toledo 24 24.4, 72 Bowling Green 16 12.4
71% 43 Georgia 38 24.9, 67 Mississippi State 19 17.9
70% 79 Navy 64 28.7, 91 Duke 27 23.0
57% 97 Pittsburgh 53 29.7, 96 Temple 52 27.4
57% 54 Illinois 46 16.1, 49 Indiana 43 14.1
56% 35 Arizona 34 27.1, 31 Washington State 26 25.1
52% 50 Houston 31 32.8, 65 Southwestern Louisiana 24 31.7
50% 38 California - Los Angel 41 32.1, 52 Oregon 22 30.8
50% 88 Tulane 35 19.9, 76 Texas Christian 7 20.7
50% 58 Purdue 30 28.2, 46 Minnesota 27 29.1
48% 99 Ohio 7 21.3, 93 Eastern Michigan 0 22.8
44% 45 Iowa 37 26.7, 29 Michigan State 30 29.4
35% 25 Northwestern 17 14.5, 16 Michigan 16 19.5
34% 75 Memphis State 18 11.6, 61 Cincinnati 16 16.8
28% 74 Missouri 27 18.3, 68 Southern Methodist 26 25.0
26% 109 North Texas 24 24.7, 106 Northern Illinois 21 31.0
24% 86 Rice 38 15.8, 60 New Mexico 21 24.5
13% 84 North Carolina State 34 17.8, 57 Maryland 8 31.6
12% 41 California 22 18.3, 15 Southern California 15 34.4
7% 48 Georgia Tech 13 11.5, 9 Virginia 7 29.2
1% 111 Kent State 32 20.4, 104 Akron 17 46.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.04 3 0.50 4 0.34 9 0.90 20 0.93 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 45 32 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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