prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 79 Bowling Green 31 46.6, 111 Kent State 24 11.7
99% 67 Vanderbilt 19 32.5, 108 North Texas 7 9.5
99% 66 Southwestern Louisiana 42 41.2, 109 Arkansas State 31 17.3
99% 37 Nevada - Reno 66 47.1, 105 Boise State 28 18.9
99% 34 Wyoming 42 43.8, 103 Western Michigan 28 5.3
99% 28 San Diego State 56 46.6, 104 Hawaii 8 9.6
99% 27 Brigham Young 63 53.7, 110 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 8.6
99% 22 North Carolina 38 27.0, 76 Maryland 7 0.9
99% 20 Syracuse 55 47.2, 93 Pittsburgh 7 16.6
99% 9 Colorado 35 44.9, 82 Oklahoma State 13 10.8
99% 2 Ohio State 17 45.3, 31 Wisconsin 14 6.4
99% 1 Nebraska 49 49.0, 45 Baylor 0 6.7
98% 62 Clemson 13 36.0, 101 Duke 6 19.7
98% 41 Virginia Tech 38 42.3, 98 Temple 0 14.3
98% 12 Kansas State 35 35.1, 71 Missouri 10 10.2
96% 60 Arkansas 38 37.8, 95 Louisiana Tech 21 20.6
96% 8 Penn State 31 36.1, 51 Purdue 14 11.5
95% 19 Auburn 49 39.4, 75 Mississippi State 15 20.0
95% 5 Tennessee 29 31.8, 43 Georgia 17 12.5
92% 64 Ball State 30 23.4, 92 Ohio 27 6.4
92% 54 Miami - Ohio 35 29.5, 96 Eastern Michigan 25 12.3
92% 3 Florida 56 39.5, 6 Louisiana State 13 21.2
90% 49 South Carolina 25 31.7, 90 Kentucky 14 16.2
87% 47 Houston 37 26.9, 77 Memphis State 20 11.4
87% 29 Washington State 24 38.0, 81 Oregon State 3 24.7
86% 25 Northwestern 26 32.4, 48 Minnesota 24 19.4
85% 46 Louisville 23 23.6, 78 Tulane 20 11.7
84% 35 Alabama 24 32.1, 73 North Carolina State 19 20.0
83% 97 Central Michigan 42 35.3, 107 Akron 0 25.4
79% 18 Southern California 14 22.2, 26 Arizona 7 12.2
77% 30 Texas A&M 24 37.9, 69 Iowa State 21 29.0
76% 42 Michigan State 42 32.7, 55 Illinois 14 24.1
75% 89 Fresno State 28 34.7, 99 San Jose State 18 27.4
75% 4 Florida State 34 25.9, 15 Miami - Florida 16 16.7
73% 61 Army 42 25.6, 85 Rutgers 21 17.0
69% 52 Stanford 27 27.5, 59 Oregon 24 20.4
69% 14 Notre Dame 54 27.0, 21 Washington 20 21.4
68% 13 Arizona State 42 32.8, 32 California - Los Angel 34 26.2
65% 84 Texas Christian 18 22.9, 88 Texas - El Paso 0 18.3
64% 83 Utah State 53 31.6, 100 New Mexico State 21 26.5
54% 40 Iowa 31 28.4, 50 Indiana 10 26.2
50% 80 Tulsa 20 26.6, 70 Colorado State 14 26.1
44% 7 Texas Tech 30 37.0, 11 Kansas 17 38.8
43% 33 Southern Mississippi 28 18.2, 36 East Carolina 7 19.9
32% 63 Boston College 24 19.9, 57 Cincinnati 17 25.2
11% 56 Navy 20 22.6, 23 Air Force 17 39.6
1% 86 Oklahoma 30 16.5, 16 Texas 27 44.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.92 6 1.24 6 1.32 8 1.01 22 0.98 1 1.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 47 42 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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